Will it be a White Christmas?

As the days grow shorter and the autumn chill deepens, one of the most common questions we are asked is whether a White Christmas is on the way.

Unfortunately forecasting more than a few days ahead in the UK is prone to error because of the changeable nature of our maritime climate. Therefore, making a forecast for Christmas Day with any degree of confidence often isn't possible until the middle of December at the earliest.

Will it be a white Christmas?

As ever, there are background signals which can be considered, even tenuous ones! Seasonal computer models are designed to give pointers to the weather trends, for example whether the chance of cold periods greater than the average. Other factors, for example the state of El Nino and long term persistence, may have a bearing on the prospects.

In addition, our Weather Analogue Index (WAI) matches current atmospheric patterns with those in previous years. One factor considered by the Christmas weather forecast feature is which years best match the current one and did they produce cold snaps in late December.

Santa’s Puzzle Forecast launched

Our new game, Santa's Puzzle Forecast, is now online! It's a weather-themed puzzle game with a new challenge every day between now and December 25th, 2024. Play freely on all devices, no registration required.The game we launched in 2023, Make It a White Christmas, remains available to play

If you want to feature in the leaderboards for the games you'll need to be logged in with a site account when playing. You can create a free site account and also enjoy advert free access for up to 5 days.

Check the latest Christmas weather forecast

News and information

RECENT WEATHER NEWS