The month ahead

The monthly outlook is based on output from global forecasting models and our own analysis.

July weather: Mixed with hot weather more likely later

Forecast issued 01/07/2024


Close to or slightly above the average


Close to average

1/7 to 7/7


Showers or longer spells of rain are possible in all of the UK at times, but the wettest conditions are expected to be in the north and the west. Drier and brighter periods will be the most frequent in the south and east. Temperatures close to or possibly slightly below the seasonal norm overall, although at this time of the year it will feel warm in sunny spells.    

8/7 to 14/7

Changeable but warmer

All regions could have showers or longer spells of rain. At times it may turn very warm and humid in the south east, with a risk of thundery downpours. Temperatures in much of the UK are likely to be close to the average, but there is a chance of very warm conditions pushing into eastern and south eastern England at times.

15/7 to 31/7

Mixed weather continues [Forecast confidence is low]

Very warm or hot weather may develop, but the likelihood is that it will be rather changeable, particularly towards the end of the month. Therefore, showery outbreaks of rain are expected in all regions and there is an increased risk of thundery periods, especially in the south. Temperatures above average.



Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

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