The month ahead

The monthly outlook is based on output from global forecasting models and our own analysis.

September weather: Warmer and drier than average

Forecast issued 01/09/2023


Above average.


Below average.

1/9 to 7/9

Increasingly settled and very warm.

Settled weather develops early on and it probably continues until the end of the week in most of the UK. However, there is a risk of rain in the far north at times and scattered showers may begin to develop in other areas later on. Temperatures rise and it is expected to become hot in southern and central regions. Values probably peak above 30C (86F) in some locations. In the north it won't be as warm, but even there temperatures are expected to be well above the norm for the time of the year.

8/9 to 14/9

More changeable, particularly in the north and west.

After a very warm or hot start, a transition to more changeable conditions is forecast to take place. The risk of showers or longer spells of rain increases, especially in the north and west. The south and possibly the east are more likely to hold on to warm and quite settled conditions for longer. 

15/9 to 30/9

Changeable, but settled spells still possible. [Forecast confidence is low]

A mixed two week period is considered the most likely scenario. Warm and dry spells continue to be possible, but wet and windy spells are more likely than during the first half of the month. Temperatures probably trend close to or a little above the norm.


Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.



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Models include UK Met Office UKV and MOGREPS-G, ECMWF, NCEP GFS, Meteo France Arpege and Arome.