August: Warmer than average Forecast issued 01/08/2026 Temperature Above average Precipitation Below average in the south, close to it in the north 1/8 to 7/8 Changeable conditions are expected. Northern and western areas will have showers or longer spells of rain at times during the first few days. In southern, central and eastern England it will be mostly dry, and it becomes hot. Cooler air then returns southeastwards bringing the potential for heavy showers, although they are expected to be hit and miss. The risk of rain will then be mostly confined to the far north, with settled conditions elsewhere. In the south, it remains warm. 8/8 to 14/8 Very warm or hot conditions are expected in southern and central regions at times, but a rather changeable theme is forecast across the UK as a whole. Northern and western areas are most likely to see showers or longer spells of rain. There is also a possibility of thundery spells at times, with the greatest risk in southern and central areas. 15/8 to 31/8 Mixed [Forecast confidence is very low] Over the period as a whole above average temperatures are favoured. There should be a good deal of dry weather, particularly in the south. Nonetheless, the chance of more unsettled periods increases, especially in the north and west. Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts. How accurate are forecasts for the month ahead? Monthly forecasts offer some skill but vary in reliability depending on several factors: Focus on Trends, Not Specifics Monthly forecasts typically provide information about expected temperature and precipitation trends relative to long-term averages. For example, they might indicate whether a month is likely to be warmer or wetter than usual. Decreasing Accuracy Over Time Monthly weather forecasts have much lower accuracy compared to short-range forecasts, with skill levels generally decreasing sharply after 7 days. They're most useful for identifying broad temperature and precipitation trends relative to seasonal averages rather than specific day-to-day conditions.