The month ahead

The monthly outlook is based on output from global forecasting models and our own analysis.

July weather: Potential for hot spells

Forecast issued 01/07/2022


Above average.


Dry in the south, quite wet in the north west.

1/7 to 7/7


During the first few days all regions have showery conditions. It will often be rather cool for the time of the year. Later on it it turns drier and warmer in the southern half of the UK. In the north things remain more mixed and there is an ongoing risk of showers or longer spells or rain.  

8/7 to 14/7

Very warm in the south.

The southern half of the UK has a lot of dry, sunny and very warm weather. Despite that, there could be a few showers around. The north should also have dry and sunny periods, but there is a greater risk of rain, especially later on. In the north temperatures will be closer to the seasonal average.  


15/7 to 31/7

Risk of showers but very warm at times. [Forecast confidence is low]

There should be fine periods, but heavy and thundery showers are possible  too. Later on it could turn more generally unsettled. Temperatures above the average, although in the north west it will often be cooler. In southern Britain there is the possibility of very warm or hot days. There is also considered to be an approximately 25% chance of temperatures reaching or exceeding 35C due to extreme heat in southern Europe filtering northwards towards the UK.



Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.



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