The month ahead

The monthly outlook is based on output from global forecasting models and our own analysis.

October weather: More unsettled later on  

Forecast Issued 01/10/2018

Temperature

Close to average.

Precipitation

Slightly below average in the south but close to, or above average, in the north west.

1/10 to 7/10

Quite unsettled later.

The southern half of the UK has a good deal of dry weather during the first half of the week, although there could be some patchy rain. In the north more unsettled conditions bring a mix of wet and windy periods as well as drier and brighter ones. In the south it becomes quite warm but the north remains cooler. During the second half of the week a wet and windy period of weather could affect much of the country and the colder conditions in the north push southwards.

8/10 to 14/10

North west to south east split. [Forecast confidence is moderate]

Changeable weather continues in the north west of the UK for much of the time and temperatures remain close to the average. In the south and east there should be a good deal of dry and bright weather. The days could be quite warm but chilly nights are expected to bring a risk of patchy fog and frost. The more unsettled weather in the north west possibly extends southeastwards at times.

15/10 to 31/10

Mixed. [Forecast confidence is low]

Rather unsettled spells are probable in all regions. The highest temperatures and driest conditions are expected to be in southeastern England with wetter and windier spells more frequent in the north west of the UK. In the north it could be quite cold at times and over high ground in Scotland there is an increasing risk of snow.

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

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