The month ahead

The monthly outlook is based on output from global forecasting models and our own analysis.

October weather: Often unsettled

Forecast issued 01/10/2024

Temperature

Close to average

Precipitation

Above average, particularly in the south

1/10 to 7/10

Changeable

Heavy rain in central and eastern England clears early in the period to leave dry weather for a few days. However, wet and potentially windy conditions begin returning from the west and they extend across all regions through the second half of the week. Despite that, it could become warmer later on, particularly in the south and east. 

8/10 to 14/10

Colder in the north

Unsettled conditions bring the likelihood of showers or longer outbreaks of rain early on. Significant amounts of rain are possible, especially in the southern half of the UK. In the north it probably turns colder and showery, with a risk of sleet or snow over high ground. Later on the colder conditions could push southwards across the rest of the UK.

15/10 to 31/10

Mostly unsettled [Forecast confidence is low]

The risk of showers or longer spells of rain will be ongoing, but drier and more settled interludes are expected as well. At times it could be rather cold, especially in the north. Therefore, sleet or snow is possible over high ground in the north. However, temperatures over the period as a whole shouldn't be too far from the norm. Windy spells are likely.

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

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