The month ahead

The monthly outlook is based on output from global forecasting models and our own analysis.

July weather: Mixed

Forecast issued 01/07/2021

Temperature

Slightly above average.

Precipitation

Close to average.

1/7 to 7/7

Unsettled.

After a mostly dry start the risk of showers increases. They are likely to become heavy and thundery in places, with the possibility of longer spells of rain too. There is also a chance of it becoming unseasonably windy in the south for a time. Feeling cool in overcast and wet areas, but warm in sunny spells.

8/7 to 14/7

Changeable. [Forecast confidence is low to moderate]

Mixed weather is expected. There is likely to be more focus on drier and warmer periods than earlier in the month. However, there is an ongoing risk of showers or even longer spells of rain. Rain distribution is very uncertain, but on balance northern and eastern areas probably have the wettest conditions. Temperatures above average in sunny periods, but cooler under cloudy skies.

15/7 to 31/7

Warm periods but still a risk of rain. [Forecast confidence is low]

Computer models are suggesting that temperatures are more likely to be above average than below it over the period as a whole. At this time of the year that suggests the likelihood of some very warm periods. There are also indications of fine and settled spells. Despite that, the risk of showers or longer outbreaks of rain will probably remain. On balance the period is expected to be drier than average across the UK as a whole, but large local variations in rain amounts are possible. 

Accompanying video

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

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