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The month ahead

The monthly outlook is based on output from global forecasting models and our own analysis.

March weather: Changeable and quite cold

Forecast issued 01/03/2023


Below average.


Close to average.

1/3 to 7/3

Becoming colder and more changeable.

The week starts with quiet and mostly dry weather. Daytime temperatures close to the average, but nights will be cold in areas where cloud breaks. Later on a band of showery rain pushes southwards and colder conditions follow it. Wintry showers develop in the north and west, with many of them falling as sleet or snow down to low levels in the northern half of the UK. Towards the end of the period longer outbreaks of rain and hill snow may spread southwards.

8/3 to 14/3

Changeable and wintry.

All areas are expected to be cold at the beginning of the period. Wintry showers could be quite widespread, although most of them are expected to be in the north and east. Through the week there is a risk of more persistent outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow pushing in from the southwest. Forecast details are very uncertain and there is a possibility of disruptive snow. The greatest risk is considered to be in the northern half of the UK. In the south incursions of milder air mean there is a greater chance of precipitation falling as rain.

15/3 to 31/3

Changeable. [Forecast confidence is low]

Rather unsettled weather is expected. In the north cold periods lead to an ongoing chance of sleet or snow. It could be cold at times in the south too, but for much of the time temperatures will probably be close to the average. The milder conditions in the south mean precipitation is more likely to fall as rain, but in the north further spells of sleet or snow are possible, particularly over high ground.






Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.



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Models include UK Met Office UKV and MOGREPS-G, ECMWF, NCEP GFS, Meteo France Arpege and Arome.