The month ahead

The monthly outlook is based on output from global forecasting models and our own analysis.

July weather: Changeable

Forecast issued 01/07/2020


Close to or slightly above average.


Slightly above average.

1/7 to 7/7

Changeable and rather cool for most.

Changeable conditions are expected through the week. Early on all regions have showers or longer spells of rain and it will be windy at times. Despite that there will be dry and bright periods too. Increasingly the risk of rain becomes focused on northern and western areas. Temperatures frequently below average in much of the country but warmer at times in the south and east, particularly in the south eastern corner.

8/7 to 14/7

More settled in the south. [Forecast confidence is moderate falling to low]

The southern half of the UK should have a good deal of dry weather. In the north and particularly the north west it remains more unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain. At times the risk of rain could spread southwards across all regions. Southern and central regions have some warm days but it generally remains cooler in the north with temperatures close to the seasonal average.

15/7 to 31/7

Unsettled periods have the upper hand. [Forecast confidence is very low]

Predominantly unsettled with the likelihood of heavy showers and thundery rain. However, drier and very warm periods are likely too, especially in the south and east. Temperatures slightly above the seasonal average overall, but significant variations are forecast as hot and humid continental air feeds into the UK on occasion.

Accompanying video

Discusses the forecast and illustrates with a range of charts. 



Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.


Other forecasts

Use the place of postcode selector at the top of this page for the local weather forecast. The links below are to discussion and long range outlooks.

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