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TheWeatherOutlook says is based on computer models and the weather patterns during the autumn.
The Computer says uses raw computer model data and is updated daily.
Welcome to the Christmas Day 2018 weather forecast page. Regular updates to TheWeatherOutlook says section will continue until the big day itself.
Our countdown began on September 1st and continued through the autumn. The big day is now covered by the GFS / GEFS medium range forecast model and daily updates will be published until it is possible to make a definitive call. So will Santa be arriving to a winter wonderland this year?
Update 16 reduces the chance of a White Christmas in both the south and north. The possibility of snow is considered close to normal.
The primary reasons for this are:
1) The GEFS ensemble shows a typical split with snow more likely in the northern half of the UK.
2) Since the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in February there has been an ongoing signal for high pressure blocks to have more influence on the UK's weather than normal. In the late winter and early spring northern blocking led to widespread snow as the Beast from the East made its presence felt. That was followed by one of the warmest (it could turn out to be the warmest once all of the data has been collated) summers on record in the UK due to the persistence of anticyclonic conditions. As we head through the meteorological autumn the elevated signal for high pressure still appears to be present.
3) Some of the latest seasonal model updates are pointing towards a colder than average winter.
Updates 1: 01/09/2018, 2: 08/09, 3: 15/09, 4: 22/09, 5: 30/09, 6: 06/10, 7: 14/10, 8: 20/10, 9: 29/10, 10: 04/11, 11: 10/11, 12: 17/11, 13: 24/11, 14: 02/12, 15: 08/12, 16: 10/12
Use the place of postcode selector at the top of this page for the local weather forecast. The links below are to discussion and long range outlooks.
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