Dreaming of a White Christmas?

Welcome to our Christmas 2020 weather forecast. Forecasting even a few days ahead is tough in the UK so how is it possible to confidently predict the weather for a single day months ahead? It isn't! Usually things don't firm up until mid December but it doesn't stop us taking a fun look ahead to Christmas Day.
 



 

Time until December 25th

45.61% there
Sep 1st
Dec 25th

Christmas weather forecast

TheWeatherOutlook says is based on computer models and the weather patterns during the autumn. Regular updates have started.

The Computer says uses raw computer model data. Daily updates are published.

TheWeatherOutlook says

Welcome to the Christmas Day 2020 countdown.

Update 8: Reduced chance

The last widespread White Christmas in the UK was in 2010. December was an extremely cold month that year and according to the Met Office 83% of stations recorded snow on the ground on December 25th. This year marks the tenth anniversary and since then we have had some exceptionally mild winters. Will this year buck the trend? 

At this stage the TWO view continues to be that there is a greater chance of northwesterly or northerly winds during December 2020. Generally they bring rather cold conditions to the UK in the winter months with the greatest risk of snow in northern and western coastal areas. Disturbances in the flow can at times result in more widespread snow. 

The eighth update reduces the percentage chance of snow this Christmas in all regions. It continues to suggest snow on Christmas Day this year is most likely in the north and west. As usual in the UK high ground is more likely to see some of the white stuff. 

The latest considerations are:

1) Recent weather patterns

2) Seasonal computer model including C3S which now covers the meteorological winter

2) The likelihood of La Nina conditions 

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to further development please consider making a donation.

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 7% in the east, 12% in the west

Updates: 1 01/09, 2 06/09, 3 13/09, 4 20/09, 5 27/09, 6 04/10, 7 10/10, 8 18/10

The Computer says

  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the north
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Northern Ireland
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands
Forecast issued 23/10/2020 10:14:38

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