Dreaming of a White Christmas?

Countdown

How many sleeps until the big day?

Christmas weather forecast

TheWeatherOutlook says is our view. Regular updates have started.

The Computer says uses raw computer model data. Daily updates are running.

TheWeatherOutlook says

Welcome to the Christmas Day 2021 countdown.

Increased chance of a white Christmas

The fourth update increases the chance of a white Christmas. This is largely due to the Weather Analogue Index (WAI) matching a number of years which brought cold Christmases.    

The likelihood of cold spells during the early part of the winter this year is considered to be higher than normal due to an expected La Nina ENSO state.

Despite the above considerations, a green Christmas is still favoured in lowland parts of the UK, with snow most likely over the Scottish mountains.

The latest considerations are:

The best matches using the WAI for this update are: 2004, 2011, 1970, 1958, 2010

Weather patterns through the early part of the meteorological autumn

Seasonal computer model data

Background signals and teleconnections 

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%.

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%. 

Updates: 1: 01/09, 2: 12/09, 3: 18/09, 4: 27/09.

By Nandaro [CC BY-SA 3.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Video forecast

Video forecast for Christmas 2021 is not available yet.

Christmas period charts and data

Computer model charts and data to help you make your own forecast!

Forecast 850hPa temp anomaly

The forecast 850hPa level (about 1500m above sea level) upper air anomaly charts do not yet reach Christmas week.

Blue shading indicates colder than the 30 year average.

Red shading indicates warmer than the 30 year average.

Not available until November

The ghost of Christmas past

If the past is the best guide to the future you may find it useful and interesting to check out these charts from Christmases past. Links open in a new window.

1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

1981 - 2010 temperature average

Average December 25th temperatures for the 1981 - 2010 period are shown on the chart below.

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FORECASTS

• UK 14 day
• Monthly
• Seasonal
• Regional 17 - 30 day
• 30 - 150 day
• Christmas

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