Dreaming of a White Christmas?

Welcome to our Christmas 2021 weather forecast. Forecasting even a few days ahead is tough in the UK so how is it possible to confidently predict the weather for a single day months ahead? It isn't! Usually things don't firm up until mid December but it doesn't stop us taking a fun look ahead to Christmas Day.
 



 

Countdown

How many sleeps until the big day?

December 25th countdown

23.07%
23.07%
Sep 1st
Dec 25th

Sleeps until Christmas!

89

Christmas weather forecast

TheWeatherOutlook says is our view. Regular updates have started.

The Computer says uses raw computer model data. Daily updates are running.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to further development please consider making a donation.

TheWeatherOutlook says

Welcome to the Christmas Day 2021 countdown.

Increased chance of a white Christmas

The fourth update increases the chance of a white Christmas. This is largely due to the Weather Analogue Index (WAI) matching a number of years which brought cold Christmases.    

The likelihood of cold spells during the early part of the winter this year is considered to be higher than normal due to an expected La Nina ENSO state.

Despite the above considerations, a green Christmas is still favoured in lowland parts of the UK, with snow most likely over the Scottish mountains.

The latest considerations are:

The best matches using the WAI for this update are: 2004, 2011, 1970, 19582010

Weather patterns through the early part of the meteorological autumn

Seasonal computer model data

Background signals and teleconnections 

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%.

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%. 

Updates: 1: 01/09, 2: 12/09, 3: 18/09, 4: 27/09.

.

The Computer says


  • Too mild for snow in the south
  •   Snow in Wales 
  • Cold and dry conditions in the Midlands
  • Cold and dry conditions in the north
  •   Snow in Scotland 
  • Cold and dry conditions in Northern Ireland
  • Cold and dry conditions in the Republic of Ireland
  • Cold and dry conditions in the Netherlands

Forecast updated daily.

Published 27/09/2021 12:39:51


Video forecast

Video forecast for Christmas 2021 is not available yet.


Christmas period charts and data

Computer model charts and data to help you make your own forecast!

Forecast 850hPa temp anomaly

The forecast 850hPa level (about 1500m above sea level) upper air anomaly charts do not yet reach Christmas week.

Blue shading indicates colder than the 30 year average.

Red shading indicates warmer than the 30 year average.

Not available until November

The ghost of Christmas past

If the past is the best guide to the future you may find it useful and interesting to check out these charts from Christmases past. Links open in a new window.

1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

1981 - 2010 temperature average

Average December 25th temperatures for the 1981 - 2010 period are shown on the chart below.

1981 to 2010 average temperatures for Christmas Day

 

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