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How many sleeps until the big day?
TheWeatherOutlook says is our view. Regular updates have started.
The Computer says uses raw computer model data. Daily updates are running.
Welcome to the Christmas Day 2021 countdown.
The fourth update increases the chance of a white Christmas. This is largely due to the Weather Analogue Index (WAI) matching a number of years which brought cold Christmases.
The likelihood of cold spells during the early part of the winter this year is considered to be higher than normal due to an expected La Nina ENSO state.
Despite the above considerations, a green Christmas is still favoured in lowland parts of the UK, with snow most likely over the Scottish mountains.
The latest considerations are:
The best matches using the WAI for this update are: 2004, 2011, 1970, 1958, 2010
Weather patterns through the early part of the meteorological autumn
Seasonal computer model data
Background signals and teleconnections
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%.
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%.
Updates: 1: 01/09, 2: 12/09, 3: 18/09, 4: 27/09.
Forecast updated daily.
Published 27/09/2021 12:39:51
Video forecast for Christmas 2021 is not available yet.
Computer model charts and data to help you make your own forecast!
The forecast 850hPa level (about 1500m above sea level) upper air anomaly charts do not yet reach Christmas week.
Blue shading indicates colder than the 30 year average.
Red shading indicates warmer than the 30 year average.
Not available until November
If the past is the best guide to the future you may find it useful and interesting to check out these charts from Christmases past. Links open in a new window.
1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020
Average December 25th temperatures for the 1981 - 2010 period are shown on the chart below.
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