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TheWeatherOutlook says is based on computer models and the weather patterns during the autumn.
The Computer says uses raw computer model data and is updated daily.
Welcome to the Christmas Day 2018 weather forecast page. Regular updates to TheWeatherOutlook says section are now underway and will continue until the big day itself.
Our countdown began on September 1st and we're now over 40% of the way there! The nights are rapidly pulling and the early part of the autumn brought some chilly nights, but is the snow on the way?
Update 8 makes a slight increase to the percentage chance of a White Christmas. The possibility of snow is considered higher than normal in both the north and south of the UK.
The primary reasons for this are:
1) The QBO is switching back to a westerly phase. A westerly phase is associated with an increased chance of milder winters in the UK.
2) We are close to a solar minimum.
3) Since the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in February there has been an ongoing signal for high pressure blocks to have more influence on the UK's weather than normal. In the late winter and early spring northern blocking led to widespread snow as the Beast from the East made its presence felt. That was followed by one of the warmest (it could turn out to be the warmest once all of the data has been collated) summers on record in the UK due to the persistence of anticyclonic conditions. As we head through the meteorological autumn the elevated signal for high pressure still appears to be present.
4) Some of the latest seasonal model updates are pointing towards a colder than average winter.
5) There are signs of northern blocking beginning to appear in the medium range computer model output.
Updates 1: 01/09/2018, 2: 08/09/2018, 15/09/2018, 4: 22/09/2018, 5: 30/09/2018, 6: 06/10/2018, 7: 14/10/2018, 8: 20/10/2018
Use the place of postcode selector at the top of this page for the local weather forecast. The links below are to discussion and long range outlooks.
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