Dreaming of a White Christmas?

Welcome to our Christmas 2018 weather forecast page. Forecasting even a few days ahead is challenging in the UK so how is it possible to confidently predict the weather for a single day months ahead? The answer is it isn't! Usually it's not until the second week of December that things firm up but that doesn't stop us taking a fun look ahead to Christmas Day.
 



 

Time until December 25th

44.23% there
Sep 1st
Dec 25th

Christmas weather forecast

TheWeatherOutlook says is based on computer models and the weather patterns during the autumn.

The Computer says uses raw computer model data and is updated daily.

TheWeatherOutlook says

Welcome to the Christmas Day 2018 weather forecast page. Regular updates to TheWeatherOutlook says section are now underway and will continue until the big day itself.

Our countdown began on September 1st and we're now over 40% of the way there! The nights are rapidly pulling and the early part of the autumn brought some chilly nights, but is the snow on the way?

Update 8 makes a slight increase to the percentage chance of a White Christmas. The possibility of snow is considered higher than normal in both the north and south of the UK.

The primary reasons for this are:

1) The QBO is switching back to a westerly phase. A westerly phase is associated with an increased chance of milder winters in the UK.

2) We are close to a solar minimum.

3) Since the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in February there has been an ongoing signal for high pressure blocks to have more influence on the UK's weather than normal. In the late winter and early spring northern blocking led to widespread snow as the Beast from the East made its presence felt. That was followed by one of the warmest (it could turn out to be the warmest once all of the data has been collated) summers on record in the UK due to the persistence of anticyclonic conditions. As we head through the meteorological autumn the elevated signal for high pressure still appears to be present.

4) Some of the latest seasonal model updates are pointing towards a colder than average winter.

5) There are signs of northern blocking beginning to appear in the medium range computer model output.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:25%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

Updates 1: 01/09/2018, 2: 08/09/2018, 15/09/2018, 4: 22/09/2018, 5: 30/09/2018, 6: 06/10/2018, 7: 14/10/2018, 8: 20/10/2018

The Computer says

  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands
Forecast issued 21/10/2018 18:08:26

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