Dreaming of a White Christmas?

Welcome to our Christmas 2019 weather forecast. Forecasting even a few days ahead is tough in the UK so how is it possible to confidently predict the weather for a single day months ahead? It isn't! Usually things don't begin to firm up until the second week of December but it doesn't stop us taking a fun look ahead to Christmas Day.


Time until December 25th

43.97% there
Sep 1st
Dec 25th

Christmas weather forecast

TheWeatherOutlook says is based on computer models and the weather patterns during the autumn.

The Computer says uses raw computer model data. Daily updates have now started.

TheWeatherOutlook says

Welcome to the Christmas Day 2019 countdown. Regular updates have now begun again and continue until the big day itself.

Update 8: No change to the percentage chance.

The eighth update makes no change to the percentage chance of snow in the north and south. 

The latest considerations are:

Seasonal forecast model updates suggesting a mild and Atlantic dominated winter is favoured.

October weather patterns. Unsettled conditions have continued.

Recent output from seasonal computer models has generally been pointing towards a milder than average winter. Although seasonal models display a low skill level for the UK they are taken into account.  

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%

Updates 1: 01/09/2019, 2: 08/09, 3: 15/09, 4: 22/09, 5: 29/09, 6: 06/10, 7: 13/10, 8: 20/10

The Computer says

  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands
Forecast issued 21/10/2019 10:57:17



Other forecasts

Use the place of postcode selector at the top of this page for the local weather forecast. The links below are to discussion and long range outlooks.

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October outlook

UK winter 2019/20

Christmas weather 2019

September forecast

Autumn 2019