UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Summer 2022: Slightly warmer and wetter than average

Forecast Issued 01/06/2022

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered.

Forecast overview

A slightly warmer than average summer is forecast. Rain amounts vary significantly, but taken across the UK as a whole they are expected to be slightly above the average.

Temperature

Slightly above the 1981-2010 average.

Precipitation

Slightly above average across the UK as a whole, but with large regional variations.

June

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation:

Close to average.

First half

Changeable. All regions see showers or longer spells of rain and in the southern half of the UK it could become very wet for a time. Later on it generally turns drier, warmer and more settled. Nonetheless, there is still a risk of wet spells. 

Second half

A good deal of warm and settled weather is expected. Despite that, heavy showers remain possible and it could turn more generally unsettled on occasion. Temperatures above the average with the possibility of it turning very warm at times in southern and central parts.

 



 

July

Temperature:

Above average.

Precipitation:

Slightly above average.

First half

A spell of very warm or hot weather may become established for a time, but mixed and showery interludes are also expected. In southern and central regions the risk of thundery conditions is considered to be greater than the norm. Temperatures above the average overall, but cool days are also likely during the more unsettled spells.

Second half

Becoming increasingly unsettled with the likelihood of some heavy and thundery rain. However, the possibility of drier and very warm periods remains. Temperatures slightly above the seasonal average overall, but significant variations are expected as hot and humid continental air occasionally feeds into the UK.

August

Temperature:

Close to average.

Precipitation

Slightly above average.

First half

Mixed with all regions seeing showers or longer outbreaks of rain. At times they could become heavy and thundery. Temperatures over the period probably close to the seasonal average, especially in the south east where warm and sunny days are likely to be more frequent.

Second half

Changeable. All regions see showery spells of rain; however, significant regional variations are probable. Temperatures over the period will probably be close to the seasonal average. Warm and sunny days are expected to be offset to a large extent by cool and wet ones.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

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