The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.
Forecast Issued 30/05/2023
Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered.
A warmer than average season is forecast. Rain amounts are expected to be slightly above the average overall, but regional or even local variations could be very large.
Above the 1981-2010 average.
Slightly above average overall, but with large regional variations.
Slightly above average.
The first week brings mostly dry and settled weather. Daytime temperatures will be the highest in the west and in sunny periods it becomes warm. At times more cloud and cooler conditions are likely in the east. Nights will be chilly in the areas where clear periods form. Moving into the second week, a gradual transition to more varied weather patterns is anticipated. There is an increased likelihood of thundery showers or longer periods of rainfall, particularly in the southern and western regions. Conversely, the eastern areas may remain relatively stable.
The latter half of the month is characterized by greater variability compared to the initial period. Nonetheless, significant dry spells are expected, and at times it becomes warm or even very warm. Thundery downpours or longer spells of rain are expected to be the most frequent in the south and west. The driest conditions will probably be in the north.
The period will feature variable weather conditions. Temperatures are anticipated to exceed average levels, with the potential for very warm or hot spells. Despite this, there remains a possibility for showers and thunderstorms, particularly in southern and central regions.
Unsettled weather is expected to persist throughout the period, with an ongoing risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms. During intervening dry spells, temperatures may rise significantly, potentially reaching very warm or hot levels. The southern half of the UK is likely to experience the wettest conditions.
Close to or slightly below the average.
A shift towards more settled weather is forecast, though wetter interludes remain a distinct possibility. These may bring heavy showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to often exceed average levels, with the potential for hot spells.
Predominantly fine weather is expected, particularly in southern and central regions. However, in the north the risk of rain is higher. Very warm or hot spells remain a possibility, with temperatures above the average over the period as a whole.
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Models include UK Met Office UKV and MOGREPS-G, ECMWF, NCEP GFS, Meteo France Arpege and Arome.