UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - 1st March, Summer - 1st June, Autumn - 1st September, Winter - 1st December.

Spring 2025: Warmer and drier than average

Forecast Issued 28/02/2025

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified and we make no claims for their accuracy.

Forecast overview

The forecast headline is for a milder and drier than average spring.

Temperature

Above the average across the UK as a whole. 

Precipitation

80% to 100% of the average.

March

Temperature:

Above average

Precipitation:

Close to average

First half

Dry and increasingly mild days develop during the early part of the month, with the most settled conditions in the southern half of the UK. Nights remain cooler, and patchy frost is possible. In the north the risk of rain remains higher, although even here there should be a good amount of dry weather for a time. Towards the end of the first week a transition to more changeable conditions begins in the north, leading to an increasing risk of rain. Through the rest of the period there is a greater chance of rain in all areas, and temperatures dip towards the average.

Second half

Mixed weather is forecast. All regions could see showers or longer spells of rain, with the potential for very wet periods. It may also turn windy at times. Temperatures will fluctuate, and some colder incursions may bring the possibility of sleet or snow over high ground and perhaps to lower levels in the north. Patchy frost remains a risk.

April

Temperature:

Close to average

Precipitation:

Slightly below average

First half

Changeable weather with showers or longer spells of rain is likely in all areas. Temperatures will vary significantly, with both colder and milder than average spells. At times it may be cold enough for showers to turn wintry in the north, bringing sleet or snow over higher ground. Occasional frosts are likely, particularly in the north.

Second half

A continuation of the changeable theme is expected early in the period, with showers or longer spells of rain in all areas. Snow may still occur over high ground in Scotland. Later on the chance of dry and settled periods increases. Temperatures will fluctuate but are forecast to be above average overall.

May

Temperature:

Above average

Precipitation

Below average

First half

Rather changeable weather is expected to give way to increasingly dry conditions. Temperatures rise above average, possibly well above, as more settled weather becomes established. However, the chance of heavy showers perhaps increases in the south later on.

Second half

Warmer than average conditions are forecast. A good deal of fine weather is expected, although showers remain a risk  especially in southern and central Britain. In the north there is a greater likelihood of it remaining more settled.


How are seasonal weather forecasts made?

Seasonal forecasts predict weather patterns months ahead using four main approaches:

Computer Models

Advanced climate simulations that couple atmosphere and oceans. Models like ECMWF's SEAS5 and NOAA's CFSv2 run multiple scenarios (ensembles) to account for uncertainty.

Analogues

These compare current patterns with those in previous years to find matching weather situations. The best matching past events are then examined to see how patterns evolved to predict future conditions.

Teleconnections

Links between distant weather patterns, such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO), providing predictability months ahead.

Sea Surface Temperatures

Ocean temperature patterns that persist for months, influencing atmospheric conditions. SST anomalies serve as early indicators of developing weather patterns.

How accurate are seasonal weather forecasts?

Seasonal forecasts have varying degrees of reliability depending on several factors:

Accuracy by Region

Forecasts typically offer modest accuracy, with 50-60% accuracy in tropical regions influenced by ENSO events, compared to 30-40% in mid-latitudes.

UK Challenges

In the UK, skill levels are particularly low, largely due to its geographical position, where multiple competing air masses make long-range predictions especially challenging.

Parameter Variability

Forecasts are generally more reliable for temperature than precipitation, providing valuable probabilistic guidance that improves on climatology alone.

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