UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Autumn 2020: Milder and wetter than average.

Forecast Issued 31/08/2020

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

Forecast overview

Rather mixed and at times cool conditions are forecast in September. October and November are forecast to be milder and wetter than average. Taken as a whole a milder and wetter than average autumn is favoured.

Temperature

Slightly above the 30 year average taken over the three month period as a whole.

Precipitation

Above average over the three months.

September

Temperature:

Close to or slightly below average.

Precipitation:

Close to average.

First half

During the first week changeable weather is expected. Northern regions have wet and windy periods and during the middle part of the week rain is likely to affect southern counties too. At other times the south should be mostly dry. A similar pattern is likely to persist through the second week. All of the UK could have wet and windy spells but in the south there continues to be more focus on drier periods.

Second half

More unsettled conditions extend gradually southeastwards bringing rain to all regions at times. Drier spells continue too, especially in the south where rainfall may be close to or below average during this period. Temperatures are expected to be slightly below the average.

 



 

October

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation:

Slightly above average.

First half

A reasonable start to the month is likely in the southern half of the UK with above average temperatures and quite a lot of dry weather. In the north more changeable conditions are forecast and gradually they spread southeastwards with an increasing chance of wet and windy spells.

Second half

An unsettled pattern is predicted, bringing showers and longer spells of rain to all of the UK. Windy or even stormy on occasion, particularly in the north and west. The best of the drier spells are likely to be in southern and central regions. Temperatures in the south should be close to or slightly above average, but close to average in the north.

November

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation

Above average.

First half

Predominantly unsettled conditions, especially in the north, bringing showers or longer spells of rain and the likelihood of very windy spells. The best of the drier intervals are expected in southern and central regions. Colder incursions are possible at times, especially in the north, but temperatures in the south should be slightly above average.

Second half

The theme is expected to be an unsettled one with wet and windy conditions prevailing. Colder snaps in northern regions  bring the possibility of sleet or snow, especially over higher ground. Temperatures are forecast to be slightly above average over the period as a whole.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

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