The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.
Forecast Issued 01/12/2022
Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered.
Although the forecast headline is for a slightly colder than average winter other scenarios are considered possible, although less likely.
1) If cold air becomes established across much of Europe in early December, as some computer models are suggesting, it could be hard to shift. That could result in the second half of December and the whole of January being colder than the forecast states
2) High pressure breaks down more quickly than is currently expected. That would lead to a milder Atlantic flow returning more quickly and possibly becoming established for much of late December and January. This scenario would result in a significantly milder winter than the forecast suggests.
Slightly below the 1981-2010 average.
Slightly below average.
The first half of the month brings predominantly colder than average conditions, particularly to the northern half of the UK. In the south there is a greater probability of milder interludes. The risk of frost and snow is greater than the norm, especially during the second week.
More variable weather is expected than earlier in the month. Further cold periods are possible, particularly in the north and east of the UK, but the chance of mild spells increases. Therefore, wet and windy conditions also become more likely than they were earlier in December. Despite that, the chance of frost and snow is considered higher than the norm, especially in the northern half of the UK. Over the period temperatures are more likely to be close to or below the norm than above it.
Close to or slightly below average.
Changeable conditions are forecast for much of the period. All areas have wet and windy spells with temperatures climbing above the average. However, it may turn colder at times, particularly in the northern half of the UK. Temperatures often close to the average in the north, but above average at times in the south.
Colder conditions are expected at times, and they lead to an increased possibility of frost and snow. In general temperatures are likely to be lowest in the north and east, with the west and south west having more frequent mild and wet spells. Temperatures close to or slightly below the average overall.
Slightly above average.
Relatively unsettled weather is forecast for much of the period with temperatures often close to the average, but above it at times in the south. Rainfall levels are predicted to be slightly higher than normal with dry spells most frequent in the south and east. It could become windy at times.
Colder incursions are possible, and they would bring the potential for frost and snow. Nonetheless, rather mild and unsettled conditions are considered likely to be dominant. Quieter and drier spells are most likely in the south and east.
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