UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Winter: Colder and drier than average.

Forecast Issued 02/12/2017

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

Overview

On balance the winter is expected to be colder and drier than recent ones with snowfall more widespread and disruptive than in any winter since 2012/13. However forecast confidence is low and background levels of warmth mean a milder outcome is still considered very possible.

Temperature

Temperatures are expected to be below the long term average over the three month period.

Precipitation

Over the three month period rainfall levels are expected to be slightly below average.

December

Temperature:

Below average.

Precipitation:

Slightly below average.

First half

The month starts on a quiet note and temperatures trend upwards. There will be some patchy rain but also a good deal of dry weather. Towards the end of the first week wet and windy weather pushes across all regions.  Once that clears it is expected to turn much colder with a risk of wintry showers in all regions but particularly the north. Night-time frosts become widespread during the second week.

Second half

Milder periods are likely at times but over the fortnight as a whole below average temperatures are forecast.  It should often be dry and night-time frosts become widespread.  Wintry showers could affect all regions and at times some more persistent periods of rain, sleet and snow are possible.  Southern and western areas probably have more frequent mild spells.

 

 

January

Temperature:

Below average (possibly close to average).

Precipitation:

Slightly below average.

First half

The early part of the month is expected to bring rather unsettled and milder weather.  Towards the middle of January colder conditions probably become more dominant and bring an increasing risk of sleet and snow. 

Second half

The second half of the month is predicted to bring a mix of drier and colder periods as well as wet and windy ones.  Spells of rain, sleet and snow affect the UK with snow more frequent over high ground and in the north.  Night-time frosts are expected to be more frequent than average.

February

Temperature:

Slightly above average (Possibly above average).

Precipitation

Slightly below average.

First half

The first half of the month is expected to begin rather cold and mostly dry, especially in the east.  A quick transition to less settled weather with outbreaks of rain in all regions is favoured. Temperatures return to average or slightly above.  By the middle of the month much of the country has drier periods but wet and windy spells continue to affect the north west.

Second half

The second half of the month may bring a good deal of dry weather to the south and south east with above average temperatures. Less settled periods are expected further north and west. At times it could become very mild.

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