The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.
Forecast Issued 31/08/2024
Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered.
The forecast headline is for a slightly milder than average autumn. However, there is considered to be an increased chance, relative to the norm, of cold snaps developing during the second half of November. Rainfall levels are most likely to be close to the norm, with wetter than average slightly more likely than drier than average.
Slightly above the 1991-2020 average across the UK as a whole.
90% to 120% of the average.
Temperature:
Slightly above average
Precipitation:
First half
After a changeable start with showers or longer spells of rain in all areas, it turns drier in the north. The settled conditions are likely to spread southwards at times, although the risk of rain remains higher there. Towards the middle of the month a transition to more mixed weather takes place in all areas. Temperatures will probably be close to the average overall. However, significant variations are likely, with a possibility of some very warm days in central and eastern counties, but also cooler than average ones at other times and elsewhere in the UK.
Second half
The second half of the month is forecast to be quite unsettled with more typical weather patterns becoming established. That suggests all regions can expect showers or longer spells of rain. Wet spells are expected to be the most frequent in the west and north west. It could become windy on occasion too. Overall, temperatures are expected to be close to the average.
Above average
To begin with, dry periods are likely in the south, but in the north more unsettled conditions are forecast to continue. They gradually extend southeastwards, leading to an increasing chance of wet and windy spells in all of the UK. Temperatures above the average.
Generally unsettled with periods of wet weather in all parts of the country. Windy at times, especially in the north. Drier spells continue to be more likely in southern and eastern regions. Temperatures slightly above the average.
Slightly below average
Precipitation
Close to average
Predominantly unsettled conditions lead to showers or longer outbreaks of rain and the likelihood of very windy spells. The best of the drier intervals are expected in southern and central areas. Colder incursions are possible at times, especially in the north, but temperatures should be close to or slightly above average.
Changeable weather is likely in all areas, so wet and windy spells can be expected at times. Despite that, there is considered to be an increased chance of cold snaps. Therefore, the risk of frost and snow is higher, particularly in the northern half of the UK. Temperatures below the average.
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