UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Winter 2021-22: Colder than average

Forecast Issued 01/12/2021

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered.

Forecast overview

There is considered to be an even greater level of uncertainty than is usually the case.  Seasonal computer models are favouring a mild winter but a number of the background signals are supportive of a colder scenario.

In addition, the analogue analysis which has been done suggests a significantly higher than normal possibility of a cold or very cold February.

Temperature

Temperatures are forecast to be below the 1981-2010 average.

Precipitation

Rainfall levels are forecast to be slightly above average.

December

Temperature:

Close to or slightly above average.

Precipitation:

Close to average.

First half

The early part of the month brings changeable weather with all regions seeing wet and windy spells, but also more settled interludes which lead to a risk of frost and fog. Temperatures fluctuate and at times it will be quite cold. There is a risk of some snow, mostly in the northern half of the UK and particularly over high ground. Later the mixed theme continues with the wettest conditions generally in the north west. Southern and central regions may become drier.

Second half

Early on a good deal of dry weather is forecast in southern and central regions. It could be quite chilly, particularly in the south, and frosts are possible on some nights. In the north and west it stays more unsettled. Progressively the milder, wetter, and windier conditions extend southeastwards leading to significant periods of rain in all regions. Despite it often being rather mild, particularly in the south, there is still the likelihood of brief colder incursions leading to a risk of sleet or snow over high ground in Scotland.

 



 

January

Temperature:

Close to or slightly below average.

Precipitation:

Above average.

First half

Unsettled weather with close to average daytime temperatures and a reduced risk of frost is predicted for much of the period. Wet and very windy spells are likely in all parts of the UK, especially early on, with snow mostly restricted to high ground in the north. Towards the end of the period things quieten down and the risk of overnight frost and fog increases. In the north west there is a greater chance of it remaining milder and unsettled.

Second half

A colder and more settled period could become established for a while. It leads to a good deal of dry weather, although in the east and south east there may be a chance of wintry showers. Frosts could  develop quite widely on some nights. Later on a transition back to more unsettled and milder conditions takes place. 

February

Temperature:

Below average.

Precipitation

Slightly below average.

First half

After a mixed and rather mild start, cold or even very cold weather is expected to develop and last for much of the period, especially in southern and eastern parts. It leads to an increased risk of snow and overnight frosts which may become severe. Possibly less cold and wetter at times in the west.

Second half

After a cold start a transition to mild and unsettled conditions take place. The wettest spells become focused on the north and west with drier conditions more likely in the south and south east. Possibly becoming very mild later on.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

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