UK Seasonal Outlook

First half

Mixed weather is expected. Cold air pushes southwards early on, with wintry showers affecting the north and frost becoming quite widespread. However, it is likely to turn milder and more changeable quite quickly, and there is a risk of it becoming very windy. Another cold snap could then develop by the end of the first week. Through the second week the expectation is for it to be more settled. Therefore, the risk of nighttime frost and fog increases, particularly in the south and east. In the north and west there is a greater chance of wet and windy days.

Second half

On balance, rather mixed weather continues to be favoured. Therefore, dry conditions early on are likely to be replaced with wetter and windier ones in all regions. There is the potential for disruptive weather. In the north sleet or snow is possible at times, particularly over high ground. The expectation of unsettled conditions suggests a reduced risk of frost and fog relative to the norm.

January

Temperature:

Above average

Precipitation:

Above average

First half

The weather is expected to be mostly unsettled with above average amounts of rain. The possibility of very windy or even stormy spells is considered relatively high. Despite the likelihood of above average temperatures over the period as whole, it may be cold enough at times for snow in the north, especially over high ground where significant falls are possible.

Second half

Unsettled weather is expected for much of the time, with wet and windy periods in all regions. However, a colder and more settled spell could develop for a while, leading to frosts becoming more widespread. That would lead to the possibility of sleet or snow for a time when milder air started to return.

February

Temperature:

Above average

Precipitation

Slightly above average

First half

Rather unsettled weather for much of the period. Rainfall levels will probably be slightly above the average with the driest spells in the south and east. Towards the middle of the month it may turn colder.

Second half

Cold snaps are possible, leading to a possibility of snow and frost. However, the prevailing weather patterns are likely to be supportive of milder and unsettled conditions for most of the time. The wettest and windiest spells are likely to be in the north and west, with quieter and drier ones more frequent in the south and east.