UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Spring 2024: Slightly warmer than average

Forecast Issued 01/03/2024

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered.

Forecast overview

A slightly warmer than average season is forecast with close to average levels of rainfall. 

Temperature

Slightly above the 1991-2020 average over the three month period as a whole. 

Precipitation

Slightly above average.

March

Temperature:

Close to average

Precipitation:

Close to average

First half

Rather unsettled and chilly conditions become established at the start of the month. Therefore, all regions have heavy showers or longer spells of rain. Snow is possible at relatively low levels in the north, as well as over the Welsh mountains and higher parts of the Peak District. During the second half of the period it turns drier, but there could still be some rain, particularly in the south and west. Daytime temperatures probably trend upwards, but frost continues to be a risk.

Second half

Close to average temperatures are forecast through this period as a whole, so it may feel quite pleasant during dry interludes. Nonetheless, changeable or rather unsettled weather dominates, leading to showers or longer spells of rain in all regions. At times in the north it probably will be cold enough for snow over high ground. The risk of frost is likely to be close to the norm.

April

Temperature:

Slightly above average

Precipitation:

Above average

First half

The first half of the month probably brings rather unsettled and chilly conditions with heavy showers or longer spells of rain. At times it could be cold enough for snow in the north, particularly over high ground. Overnight frost remains a risk.

Second half

Unsettled conditions and close to average temperatures are expected early on. This gives a mix of sunshine and showers, as well as more persistent spells of rain. Showers could be heavy and thundery. Later on the chance of warmer and drier days increases, especially in the south.

May

Temperature:

Above average

Precipitation

Below average

First half

The first half of the month is expected to bring warmer than average conditions, with a good deal of dry and increasingly sunny weather. Northern areas may be less settled and cooler at times with showers or longer spells of rain.

Second half

Rather changeable weather returns early on, with showers or longer spells of rain and close to average temperatures in all regions. Towards the end of the month dry periods are likely, especially in the south and east where it may become very warm and humid.

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