UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Summer 2019: Warm and possibly quite wet.

Forecast Issued 01/06/2019

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

Forecast overview

The forecast headline is for a warmer than average summer in most of the UK. On balance there is considered to be a greater chance of above rather than below average rainfall.

Temperature

The aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for June, July and August is forecast to be 0.5C to 1.5C above the average.

Precipitation

Over the three month period precipitation levels are forecast to be between 95% to 115% of the average.

June

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation:

Slightly above average.

First half

The first half of the month brings mixed weather, with all parts of the country seeing showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures over the period are forecast to be a little below the seasonal average. Some warm sunny days are likely, however they will probably be more than offset by cooler and wetter ones. There is the possibility of rain becoming heavy and thundery in places.

Second half

The second half of June is expected to see changeable weather being replaced by a dry, fine and warm spell. At times it could become very warm or even hot in southern and central parts with the risk of thundery conditions increasing. Later on unsettled and cooler periods return from the west, but the south east may remain mostly dry.

 



 

July

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation:

Slightly above to above average.

First half

The first half of the month may see a spell of very warm weather becoming established for a time. Towards the middle of the month showery rain is expected to return from the south, becoming heavy and thundery at times. Temperatures dip back towards the average as it turns more unsettled.

Second half

Mixed weather is expected during the second half of the month. Temperatures over the period will probably be slightly above the seasonal average. Some very warm days are likely, but cool and wet days are also probable. The heaviest rainfall may be in the south and south west where it possibly becomes thundery at times.

August

Temperature:

Above average.

Precipitation

Below average.

First half

The first half of the month should bring a good deal of fine and sunny weather. It could become very warm or hot, especially in the south. Some thunderstorms are likely and towards the middle of the month they may become more widespread as it becomes somewhat more changeable.

Second half

The second half of the month possibly starts mixed. Despite that a good deal of settled and warm or very warm weather is expected for much of the period. Towards the end of the month the chance of cooler and showery incursions may increase.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

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