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UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Autumn 2022: Slightly warmer and drier than average

Forecast Issued 01/09/2022

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered.

Forecast overview

A slightly warmer than average autumn with slightly below average rain is forecast. However, the chance of colder periods later on is considered to be higher than the norm.

Temperature

Slightly above the 1981-2010 average.

Precipitation

Slightly below average.

September

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation:

Close to average.

First half

Rather unsettled weather develops early in the period. All regions see showers or longer spells of rain and they could turn heavy. Dry periods are more likely in the south east where it could also be warm at times. Towards the end of the period there is a possibility of it becoming somewhat more settled, with the risk of rain reducing in the south and east. Generally temperatures are expected to be above the average, but cooler days are likely when it turns wet. There is also the potential for it to be quite windy at times. 

Second half

After a changeable start the likelihood of more settled periods increases. Despite that, there is a still a risk of rain, especially in the north and west of the UK. The most settled and sunniest conditions will probably be in the south east. Temperatures close to the seasonal average in the north and above it in the south.

 



 

October

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation:

Slightly below  average.

First half

Early on it turns rather unsettled with wet and windy spells affecting all regions. Through the second half of the period a change to more settled weather is favoured, and although temperatures during the days should be reasonable, there are likely to be some chilly nights. Nighttime frost is an increasing risk, especially in the north. Temperatures close to the seasonal average over the first half of the month as a whole.

Second half

A relatively settled start with close to average temperatures, but for a time it may turn rather warm. The settled theme is gradually breaks with wet and windy weather returning to all regions by the end of the month. Temperatures slightly above average.

November

Temperature:

Slightly below average.

Precipitation

Close to or slightly below average.

First half

Changeable weather is forecast for much of the period. Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly below average with the risk of snow at times over the Scottish hills. Although wet and windy conditions are expected, there is also a chance of high pressure pushing across the UK at times to give drier interludes.

Second half

Unsettled weather is expected to affect most of the country, with widespread showers or longer spells of rain. During the period it could turn cold enough for snow in northern regions, with a chance of wintry conditions extending further south for a time. Temperatures below the seasonal average when taken across the period as a whole.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

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