UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Winter 2019 - 20: Milder and wetter than average.

Forecast Issued 01/12/2019

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

Forecast overview

The forecast headline is for a milder than average winter. There is considered to be a greater chance of above rather than below average rainfall. Away from high ground in the north snow is most likely during the second half of January and the middle of February.

Temperature

Above the 30 year average taken over the three month period as a whole.

Precipitation

Rainfall levels are forecast to be slightly above average.

December

Temperature:

Close to average.

Precipitation:

Close to average.

First half

The start of the month is expected to bring a good deal of dry and frosty weather, although the extent of this could become increasingly limited due to cloud cover. In the north it becomes more unsettled and milder during the second half of the first week. The unsettled conditions then spread southwards. Towards the end of the period colder and changeable conditions are likely to develop. The risk of snow increases in the north.

Second half

A rather changeable and chilly first week is forecast. In the north it could be cold enough for snow at times, particularly over high ground. The risk of snow spreading further south is considered quite low but it is not discounted. Through the rest of the period it probably remains changeable with temperatures becoming close to the seasonal average.

 



 

January

Temperature:

Above average.

Precipitation:

Above average.

First half

Often unsettled or even stormy conditions are predicted with above average rainfall. Despite the likelihood of above average temperatures over the period as whole, it could at times be cold enough for substantial snowfall over higher ground in the north.

Second half

Unsettled conditions are expected to persist but the chance of colder weather increases. A cold period lasting for several days, which brings the risk of snow, could be sandwiched into this period. Milder and more unsettled conditions are likely earlier and later.

February

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation

Slightly above average.

First half

Quite unsettled weather is forecast for much of the period with temperatures generally often close to average, but above average at times in the south. Rainfall levels probably slightly above the average with drier spells most frequent in the south and east.

Second half

The middle part of the month may bring a spell of colder weather with a risk of sleet and snow for a time in all regions. Milder and unsettled conditions are considered likely to return in the north and west. Quieter and drier spells are more likely in the south and east.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

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