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14 day UK weather forecast

Often settled in the south, more mixed in the north

Issued Sunday 5th February 2023

Settled in the south, more changeable in the north

Week 1: 06/02 to 12/02

Monday: Patchy fog in southern and central regions lifts and sunny spells develop widely. In other areas there will be more cloud and in the north west it could bring a few spots of rain. Frost early and late in much of England and Wales, but afternoon temperatures won't be far from the norm.

Tuesday: A band of rain fades away as it pushes southeastwards across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Areas to its south remain dry and bright.  Frost early and late in much of England and Wales, but afternoon temperatures won't be far from the norm.

Wednesday: Mostly dry and bright in southern and central Britain. Patchy frost and fog early in the day. Cloudier in the north and it may become very windy. Later on outbreaks of rain probably push into western Scotland and Northern Ireland. In the afternoon temperatures should be close to the seasonal average.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday: Southern and central regions continue to have a good deal of dry weather. The risk of patchy fog and frost continues. In the north it's a more changeable picture with showers or longer spells of rain and hill snow  possible early on. Later on it probably becomes drier and more settled again.

Forecast confidence is high falling to medium.

 



 

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Becoming more changeable

Week 2: 13/02 to 19/02

A good deal of dry weather is expected. Patchy nighttime frost and fog is likely, especially in southern and central regions. It is expected to be more changeable in the north west and that tendency increases through the week. Later on bands of rain could push southwards at times. Nights are forecast to be rather cold with an ongoing risk of frost and fog. Daytime temperatures close to or slightly above the average.

Forecast confidence is very low.

Expected developments

Week 1

High pressure probably keeps things mostly settled across the southern half of the UK. However, during the middle part of the week its influence declines for a time as a deep area of low pressure tracks between Iceland and Scotland. It could lead to a period of very strong winds in the north. Once it pulls away, high pressure is expected to build northwards again.   

The chart below from the GFS model shows forecast precipitation and pressure at 15:00 GMT, Thursday 9th February.

GFS pressure chart

Week 2

Computer models are suggesting that high pressure will have a good deal of influence, especially early on in the south. Later it begins to decline and a more active Atlantic flow starts to sink southwards across the UK. 

The chart below shows the GEFS forecast mean surface level pressure on Wednesday, 15th February. It suggests high pressure will be centred to the south of the UK.

GEFS mean surface level pressure forecast chart

 

Key weather developments

The southern half of the UK has a lot of settled weather. In the north it turns more changeable through the middle part of the first week and there is a possibility of it becoming very windy.

Hourly weather

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16 day weather

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Computer models

For a huge range of data see the Model inventory which provides output from the Arpege, Arome, CFSv2, GEM, GFS, GEFS, Icon, ECM, ECM ENS, UKV, UM and Fax models.

14 day video

Issued 31st January 2023

14 day video weather forecast

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UK FORECASTS

14 day outlook

Monthly outlook

Seasonal outlook

WEATHER MODELS

A huge range of charts and data is freely available.

Models include UK Met Office UKV and MOGREPS-G, ECMWF, NCEP GFS, Meteo France Arpege and Arome.