Issued Thursday 5th September 2024
Issued 5th September 2024
The 14 day video forecast is usually updated weekly.
The 14 day discussion is usually updated twice each week.
Friday: Outbreaks of rain affect southern Britain, with the heaviest ones likely to be in the south west. Areas further north have a dry, bright and very warm day. In central England temperatures could reach 28C.
Saturday: Central and northern areas have warm and sunny conditions. In the south there could be some warm sunshine too, but there is a risk of showers or longer outbreaks of rain later on.
Sunday: Heavy and thundery spells of rain move northwards across England and Wales. Scotland and Northern Ireland remain mostly dry and bright. In sunny spells temperatures quickly rise.
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: Perhaps mostly dry to begin with. However, a band of rain clears southeastwards and it is followed by cool weather, with a mix of sunny spells and showers. The heaviest showers are expected to be in the north and west. Strong winds are also possible for a time, and it may be cold enough for sleet or snow over the higher Scottish mountains. The nights could be cold for the time of year, with frost possible in the north.
Forecast confidence is high falling to medium.
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The week starts chilly and showery. Temperatures should steadily recover, but the general picture remains mixed, with further showers or longer spells of rain, especially in the north and west. In the south and east dry periods are forecast to be more frequent. Windy at times, particularly during the first half of the week and in the north.
Forecast confidence is low.
Through the first few days a slow moving low pressure will be centred to the south and an area of high pressure to the north. Later on the jet stream moves southwards and a chilly north or northwesterly flow moves down across the UK.
The chart below is from the GFS model. It shows pressure and precipitation at 15:00, Tuesday 10th September.
The pattern is forecast to flatten out early in the week. Thereafter, high pressure has some influence in the south, but in the north a keen Atlantic flow probably remains for much of the time.
The chart below shows the GEFS forecast mean surface level pressure on Sunday 15th September.
Heavy showery spells of rain affect southern and possibly central areas during the first few days. However, the north has a lot of fine weather and it will be warm in the areas where sunny periods develop. A chilly north or northwesterly air stream is forecast to push southwards during the second half of the first week.
The UKV chart below shows forecast precipitation at 15:00 on Saturday 7th September.
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