14 day UK weather forecast

A taste of summer for some 

Issued Wednesday 17th July 2024


14 day video

Issued 16th July 2024

The 14 day video forecast is usually updated weekly.

14 day video weather forecast

14 day discussion

The 14 day discussion is usually updated twice each week.

A brief blast of summer heat

Week 1: 18/07 to 24/07

Thursday: Patchy outbreaks of rain affect the north west of the UK. In other areas it will be dry with sunny spells. Warm away from the north west and very warm in the south eastern corner.

Friday: A risk of rain remains in the far north west, but the vast bulk of the UK has a fine day with sunny periods. Very warm or hot in central and eastern England where temperatures could exceed 30C.

Saturday: Outbreaks of rain push across much of the north and west. Areas to the south and east remain dry, but cloud builds from the west. Cooler in the north west, but in central and eastern England it remains very warm or hot.

Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday: Heavy showers or longer outbreaks of rain are likely in places at the start of the period as fresher conditions return southeastwards. Thereafter, a rather changeable scenario is expected, with showery spells of rain the most frequent in the northern half of the UK. In the south there should be a good deal of dry weather. Temperatures close to the average generally, but in sunny spells it will feel warm, particularly in the south.

Forecast confidence is high falling to medium.

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Driest in the south and east

Week 2: 25/07 to 31/07

Dry periods are expected to be the most frequent in southern and eastern areas. In the north west and perhaps west in general it remains changeable with an ongoing risk of showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures on the whole are likely to be close to the average, but towards the end of the week it could be turning warmer.

Note: A range of outcomes is possible and even southern and eastern regions are likely to see some rain.

Forecast confidence is low.

Expected developments

Week 1

The combination of a slow moving area of low pressure to the west and high pressure to the east results in very warm air being pulled northwards through the first few days. The second half of the week sees an Atlantic flow returning, but high pressure continues to have some influence on the south of the UK.

The chart below is from the UK Met Global model. It shows pressure and precipitation at 15:00, Monday 22nd July.

UKM pressure and precipitation forecast chart

Week 2

High pressure areas centred to the south have influence on the UK's weather. However, there is a good deal of uncertainty about how strongly they will build northwards or northeastwards, but the general pattern suggests the most unsettled conditions are likely to be in the north and west. 

The chart below shows the GEFS forecast mean surface level pressure on Saturday 27th July.

GEFS mean surface level pressure forecast chart

 

Key weather developments

Temperatures climb through the first few days as a ridge of high pressure builds and 30C may be reached. However, rather changeable conditions then return, although further dry periods are expected, particularly in the south.

The UKV chart below shows forecast temperatures at 15:00 on Friday 19th July.

UKV forecast chart

Hourly weather

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16 day weather

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Computer models

For a huge range of data see the Model inventory which provides output from the Arpege, Arome, CFSv2, GEM, GFS, GEFS, Icon, ECM, ECM ENS, UKV, UM and Fax models.

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