Issued Thursday 25th July 2024
Issued 23rd July 2024
The 14 day video forecast is usually updated weekly.
The 14 day discussion is usually updated twice each week.
Friday: Showers will be mostly in the northern half of the UK. All areas have sunny spells and temperatures will be close to the norm.
Saturday: Showers become heavy in northern and western areas. The warmest and driest conditions are expected to be in central England, the south east and East Anglia.
Sunday: Dry and warm with sunny spells. Temperatures reach the mid 20Cs in the southern half of the UK.
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: A good deal of fine and warm weather is likely early on. In southern and central counties it may be very warm or hot. Temperatures perhaps exceed 30C and there is a chance of the hottest day of the year so far being recorded. Towards the end of the period heavy showers and thunderstorms may push up from the south.
Forecast confidence is high falling to medium.
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Dry periods are forecast to be the most frequent in southern and eastern areas. In the west there is an ongoing risk of showers or longer outbreaks of rain. Thundery spells are possible too, particularly in the south and east of England. Temperatures on the whole are forecast to be above the average, and in the south and east it may be very warm or hot at times.
Note: A range of outcomes is possible and even southern and eastern regions could see some rain.
Forecast confidence is low.
An Atlantic flow covers the UK for the first couple of days. High pressure then begins to build northwards bringing more settled conditions, especially to the south. However, later on there are indications of low pressure pushing up from the south.
The chart below is from the UK Met Global model. It shows pressure and precipitation at 00:00, Tuesday 30th July.
High pressure areas centred to the south have some influence on the weather. However, there are indications of low pressure systems becoming slow moving as they approach the UK. They lead to the potential for unstable weather with hot and thundery spells, mostly in the south and east.
The chart below shows the GEFS forecast mean surface level pressure on Sunday 4th August.
The weather is forecast to be quite mixed across the UK as a whole. Nonetheless, the potential for very warm or hot spells is higher than it has been for most of the summer so far.
The GFS chart below shows forecast temperatures at 15:00 on Tuesday 30th July.
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