14 day UK weather forecast

Warm but thundery showers in the south.

UK outlook issued Sunday 20th May 2018

Week 1

Warm but risk of thundery showers in the south.

Monday: Outbreaks of rain affect the north west. Elsewhere there will be warm sunny periods but in the afternoon showers or thunderstorms break out in southern and central counties. However a lot of places miss them and remain dry. Very warm in the sunny areas but cooler in the north west.

Tuesday, Wednesday: All regions have sunny spells but there is an ongoing risk of thundery showers in the south. Generally warm or very warm but cooler near the east coast.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday: Scattered showers continue to be a threat in the south but there should be a good deal of sunshine in most of the UK. Eastern coastal counties have more cloud and that could spread farther inland at times. Warm or very warm for most but cooler near the east coast.

Forecast confidence is high falling to moderate later on.

Week 2

Very warm but perhaps more changeable.

There should be a good deal of fine weather during the first half of the week. It probably will be very warm or even hot in the south and thundery showers are possible. More changeable spells are most likely in the north and west where temperatures stay closer to the seasonal average. Later on more mixed weather could extend into southern counties.

Forecast confidence is moderate to low.

Overview

Week 1

High pressure becomes centred to the north of the UK and continues influencing the weather, however low pressure over France nudges northwards and brings a risk of thundery conditions into southern counties. Towards the end of the week there are tentative suggestions of a blowtorch feed pushing into southern counties.

Week 2

Pressure probably remains high over the UK during the first half of the week. Beyond that uncertainty increases but cooler air may push southwards as the area of high pressure migrates westwards.

Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis

The GFS is the computer model on which we base our 16 day weather forecasts.

Points of note

Warm weather is expected to continue throughout the two week period. In the south it is forecast to be thundery at times but there should be a lot of fine periods too.

For a huge range of data see the chart viewer which provides output from the Arpege, Arome, CFSv2, GEM, GFS, GEFS, ECM, WW3 and Fax models and works on PCs, tablet computers such as the iPad and smartphones.

The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.

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