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14 day UK weather forecast

Chilly start but warming up later

Issued Sunday 25th September 2022

Chilly and showery start then mixed

Week 1: 26/09 to 02/10

Monday: Outbreaks of rain quickly clear from the south. All regions then have a mix of sunny spells and showers. Over high ground in Scotland sleet or snow is possible. Windy. Chilly for late September. 

Tuesday: Sunny spells in much of the UK, although there is a possibility of more persistent outbreaks of rain in northern Scotland and south western Britain. Cool and windy.

Wednesday: Sunny spells in much of the UK, but there will be showers too, particularly in coastal counties. In the north east there could be more persistent outbreaks of rain. Rather cool.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday: Changeable. Although a drier interlude is possible early on, it isn't likely to last for long with wet and windy conditions quickly pushing eastwards. A mix of sunny spells and showers follows it, but there are signs of it turning more settled in the south. Temperatures close to the seasonal average.

Forecast confidence is high falling to medium.

 



 

Often dry and potentially quite warm in the south 

Week 2: 03/10 to 09/10

Mixed. All regions could see showers or longer periods of rain, but it is forecast to be more settled in the southern half of the UK generally. Temperatures close to average in the north and above it in the south. In the south it could be warm at times, but much will depend on the extent of cloud cover. 

Forecast confidence is very low.

Expected developments

Week 1

At the start of the period a weather front clears southwards and colder arctic air follows it. Through the first few days an area of low pressure steadily moves southwards to the east of the UK. It keeps a cool and showery theme in place. Later on a weak ridge of high pressure builds in from the west, but it is quickly followed by a deep area of low pressure which probably tracks between Scotland and Iceland. 

The chart below from the GFS model shows forecast pressure patterns and precipitation at 15:00 GMT, Wednesday 28th September. Low pressure centred to the east of the UK is leading to cool and showery weather.

GFS precipitation and MSLP

Week 2

High pressure probably builds from the south and milder air returns. However, in the north an Atlantic influence remains.

The chart below shows the GEFS forecast mean surface level pressure on Wednesday 5th October. High pressure is building northwards across the UK.

GEFS mean surface level pressure forecast chart

 

Key weather developments

Temperatures take a dip at the start of the period as Arctic air sweeps southwards. Towards the end of the first week there is a possibility of a deep area of low pressure bringing a wet and very windy period.

Hourly weather

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16 day weather

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Computer models

For a huge range of data see the Model inventory which provides output from the Arpege, Arome, CFSv2, GEM, GFS, GEFS, Icon, ECM, ECM ENS, UKV, UM and Fax models.

14 day video

Issued 13th September 2022

14 day video weather forecast

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UK FORECASTS

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Models include UK Met Office UKV and MOGREPS-G, ECMWF, NCEP GFS, Meteo France Arpege and Arome.