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UK outlook issued Thursday 21st September 2017
Unsettled in the north and west. Drier and warmer at times in the south east.
Friday: Central and eastern areas have a mostly dry day with sunny spells. Outbreaks of rain affect Northern Ireland during the morning and they push eastwards into western parts of Britain through the afternoon. Drier conditions return to Northern Ireland.
Saturday: The east remains dry and bright. In the west there will be a good deal of cloud and patchy outbreaks of rain are likely in the north west. It will be windy in the west with gales in coastal counties and exposed locations.
Sunday: Wet weather is expected in Northern Ireland and western Britain. The south and east should be mostly dry with sunny spells. Windy in the northern half of the UK.
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: Changeable weather continues in the north and west of the UK with wet weather at times. The south east probably has quite a lot of dry and bright weather, although there is a chance of some rain. Temperatures close to average in the north west but quite warm in the south east.
Forecast confidence is moderate falling to low during the second half of the week.
Becoming generally more unsettled.
To begin with a good deal of dry and bright weather is likely in the south. The north and west are likely to be changeable and as the week progresses there is an increasing chance of wet weather spreading southwards. Nonetheless the south continues to have a fair amount of dry periods.
Forecast confidence is low.
During the first week the boundary between high pressure centred to the northeast of the UK and the Atlantic flow is likely to be close to the UK. Disturbances could become slow moving over northern and western areas with the south east remaining under the high pressure for much of the time.
The second week probably sees pressure declining across the UK. Atlantic disturbances initially affect the north west of the UK but push farther southeastwards as the week progresses.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis
The GFS is the computer model on which we base our 16 day weather forecasts.
The south east could have quite a lot of dry and warmish weather. Northern and western regions remain more unsettled. Weather systems could become slow moving over the UK leading to the risk of heavy rain in places. There is uncertainty about where the border between the Atlantic flow and the continental high pressure block will be.
For a huge range of data see the chart viewer which provides output from the Arpege, Arome, CFSv2, GEM, GFS, GEFS, ECM, WW3, Arpege, Arome and Fax models and works on PCs, tablet computers such as the iPad and smartphones.
The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
Use the place of postcode selector at the top of this page for the local weather forecast. The links below are to discussion and long range outlooks.
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