Issued Sunday 20th October 2024
Issued 22nd October 2024
The 14 day video forecast is usually updated weekly.
The 14 day discussion is usually updated twice each week.
Monday: Rain could linger in the far south east for much of the day. Outbreaks of rain also push into the north west of the UK and become heavy at times. In other areas it will be dry with varying amounts of cloud. The brightest conditions may be in northern England, Wales and the south west.
Tuesday: There will be scattered showers but many places remain dry and bright. Quite windy in the north.
Wednesday: Patchy outbreaks of rain affect Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland. England and Wales have a dry day and in the south there should be lengthy sunny periods after early mist clears. Mild.
Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday: Changeable. Most places start off dry, but more unsettled conditions are likely to return from the west quite quickly. For a time it could be very wet and windy, but it probably starts to turn more settled again towards the end of the period.
Forecast confidence is high falling to medium.
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A good deal of dry weather is likely in southern and central regions early on, although there is still a possibility of rain. In the north and particularly the north west a more changeable scenario is expected, with stronger winds and more frequent spells of rain. Later in the week the more settled theme extends northwards. Fog and frost perhaps develop widely during the nights. Daytime temperatures should be close to the norm but where fog lingers, it remains cold.
Forecast confidence is low.
An Atlantic flow covers the UK early on, but through the middle of the week high pressure builds from the south. It is likely to decline quickly, allowing disturbances from the Atlantic to push eastwards across all regions. Some computer models are flagging the possibility of a very wet and windy period, with the north west being the most at risk. During the last couple of days there is a signal for high pressure to return.
The chart below is from the GFS model. It shows pressure and precipitation at 15:00, Wednesday 23rd October.
High pressure is forecast to be centred close to southern Britain. Therefore, Atlantic disturbances have more influence in the north of the UK than the south.
The chart below shows the GEFS forecast mean surface level pressure on Wednesday 30th October.
The first week brings a mixed bag of weather, albeit with temperatures often above the seasonal average. High pressure builds at times and it could be more persistent through week 2, leading to an increased risk of fog and frost.
The GFS chart below shows forecast temperatures at 15:00 on Thursday 24th October.
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