14 day discussion The 14 day discussion is usually updated twice each week. More unsettled weather develops Week 1: 25/09 to 01/10 Friday: A band of rain in the north slowly pushes southeastwards, stretching from southern Wales to Yorkshire and Lincolnshire by late afternoon. Areas to its south have a warm and dry day, although cloud amounts increase. To its north it will be cooler, with sunny spells, but also showers in Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Saturday: Dry and bright in southern and central areas. The north has sunny spells too, but there will be showers. Temperatures close to the norm. Sunday: Squally outbreaks of rain in the north and west steadily push eastwards. However, central and eastern areas of England are likely to remain dry and warm through the day. Quite windy, particularly in the north. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: After a mostly fine start the weather turns changeable. Showers, longer spells of rain and strong winds extend eastwards. However, it could become very warm for a time in central and eastern areas. Forecast confidence is high falling to moderate. Ad-free browsing and premium features Subscribe to The Weather Outlook Premium to enjoy ad-free browsing and extra features. Subscribe on a recurring monthly basis or for a fixed 12 month period. Find out more: The Weather Outlook Premium Changeable Week 2: 02/10 to 08/10 Changeable. All regions can expect showers or longer spells of rain. The wettest conditions over the week as a whole are expected to be in the north west, while the south east has the driest periods. Windy spells are likely. Temperatures close to or slightly above the norm overall, but some warm days are still possible in the south. Forecast confidence is very low. Expected developments Week 1 High pressure is centred close to the south east of the UK at the start of the period. Through the weekend, disturbances move in from the Atlantic, but pressure then builds again for a time. Between Tuesday and Thursday a deep area of low pressure centred to the west pushes frontal systems across the UK, and a tight pressure gradient leads to strong winds. The chart below is from the ECMWF IFS model. It shows forecast surface conditions at 12:00 Sunday 27th September. Week 2 A rather changeable pattern is forecast. High pressure may continue to have influence, particularly in the south and east, but an Atlantic flow will probably cover the UK for the majority of the time. The chart below shows the GEFS forecast mean surface level pressure on Sunday 4th October. Key developments A transition to a more changeable pattern is expected, leading to showers or longer spells of rain and strong winds in all areas. However, further warm days are likely, especially in the south. The UKV chart shows forecast temperatures at 15:00 on Sunday 27th September.