Issued Thursday, 30th November 2023
Issued 28th November 2023
The 14 day video forecast is usually updated weekly.
The 14 day discussion is usually updated twice each week.
Friday: Showers continue, with most of them in coastal counties. In the east many of them have a wintry flavour. However, most places have a dry and bright day. Cold with widespread frost early and late.
Saturday: The vast bulk of the UK remains dry and bright. However, showers are likely in the west of the UK and in the north many of them fall as sleet or snow. Cold with widespread frost early and late.
Sunday: Patchy outbreaks of rain, sleet and hill snow are possible in southern and central counties for a time. They should clear eastwards to leave dry conditions in most areas, but showers continue in coastal counties. Cold. Widespread frost early and late in central and northern areas. In the south cloudier skies could keep temperatures slightly above freezing point.
Monday: Outbreaks of rain are expected in southern and possibly central Britain. Over high ground there is a risk of sleet or wet snow. Areas to the north have sunny spells and scattered showers. Very cold in the northern half of the UK, but in the south temperatures could be a little higher than in recent days.
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: Mostly dry and rather cold conditions are forecast at the start of the period. However, bands of rain are likely to push northwards and eastwards during Wednesday and Thursday. Milder air follows from the west, but there is a lot of uncertainty about how much progress it will make across the UK. Sleet or snow is possible along the boundary zone between cold and mild air, with the greatest risk in the north and east. It could also be windy at times in the south later on.
Forecast confidence is high falling to medium.
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Unsettled weather with all areas having wet and windy spells is considered to be the most likely scenario for this period. Temperatures over the week as a whole would be close to or slightly above the seasonal average. However, there is a chance (approximately 30% at the time of publication) of a much colder outcome, with an increasing risk of frost and snow.
Forecast confidence is very low.
The UK will be under a cold northeasterly flow at the start of the period. After the first two days, areas of low pressure start to push in from the Atlantic. They bring a risk of rain, sleet and snow, but also start to introduce less cold air, especially to southern and central regions.
The chart below from the ECM model shows forecast temperatures at approximately 1500m above sea level at 12:00 GMT, Tuesday, 5th December. Blue shading over the north of the UK indicates cold air and the green in the south - closer to the average.
Developments through the week are very uncertain. The favoured outcome is for an Atlantic flow to become established over the UK. It would bring milder and more unsettled weather, with rain and the risk of strong winds. However, an alternative possibility is for high pressure to build close to the UK or to its northeast. It would allow colder or even very cold conditions to develop, particularly in the south and east.
The chart below shows the GEFS forecast mean surface level pressure on Sunday, 10th December. It suggests the likelihood of milder air returning from the west or the southwest.
After a cold start a gradual transition to more unsettled and milder weather is expected to take place. Nonetheless, there is a good deal of uncertainty about the timing and details of it. There is also a possibility of snow as the milder air tries to return, especially in the north.
The chart below shows forecast temperatures at 18:00 GMT on Saturday 2nd December.
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