Autumn 2026 outlook The meteorological autumn spans the period from 1st September to 30th November. The early part of the season can bring very warm or even hot spells, but by the end of it the risk of frost and snow increases substantially. Autumn 2025 brought above average temperatures and above average rainfall. Despite that, even parts of southern England saw accumulating snow. In fact, some locations recorded more snow during the November cold snap than they did throughout the following winter. So how is autumn 2026 shaping up? By Brian Gaze21st July 2026 Autumnal snow in the Chilterns In this first look at the prospects for autumn 2026 a range of factors is considered. These include recent temperature trends, seasonal forecast models and broader background signals. Temperature trends in 2026 The Central England Temperature (CET) has been above average in every month so far this year. January was the only month that was slightly below the 1991-2020 average, although it remained above the older 1961-90 baseline. Month CET Anomaly January 4.4 0.6 (-0.3) February 7.2 3.4 (2.3) March 8.2 2.6 (1.5) April 10.4 2.5 (1.4) May 13.6 2.5 (1.7) June 17.4 3.3 (2.7) July (provisional to 20th) 19.9 4.0 (3.1) The anomalies in the table above are relative to the 1961-90 average with the 1991-2020 values shown in brackets. Even against the notably warmer 1991-2020 baseline, the tendency for months to be warmer than average has been striking. Autumn 2025 quite mild and wet Autumn 2025 was slightly milder than autumn 2024. It was also wetter across the UK as a whole. Compared with the 1991-2020 averages: Mean temperature: 10.15°C, which is 0.43°C above average Rainfall: 403.4mm, which is 120% of average Sunshine: 264.2 hours, which is 95% of average Measured by Central England Temperature (CET), it was the 10th warmest of the century so far. The seasonal anomalies against the commonly used 30 year series: 1961-90: 1.04°C 1971-00: 0.97°C 1981-10: 0.64°C 1991-20: 0.44°C The monthly UK temperature anomalies were: September: -0.1°C October: 0.7°C November: 0.7°C The UK monthly rainfall totals as percentages of average were: September: 132% October: 99% November: 131% The UK monthly sunshine totals as percentages of average were: September: 96% October: 69% November: 110% Seasonal model overview The table below summarises output from seasonal forecast models for September, October and November 2026. It represents the guidance available at the time of publication, and subsequent updates may point towards a different outcome. Model Temperature Precipitation UK Met Office (UK) Above average Above average around the UK Meteo France (France) Above average Mixed, but mostly no clear signal DWD (Germany) Above average Above average near western parts of the UK CMCC Above average Mostly above average ECMWF Above average Mostly above average JMA (Japan) Above average No clear signal or above average C3S multi-system Above average Mostly slightly above average CFS v2 (USA) Above average No clear signal BOM Above average Above average around the UK The C3S multi-system forecast incorporates guidance from a range of centres, including ECMWF, the UK Met Office, Meteo-France, CMCC, DWD, JMA, BOM and NCEP. C3S most likely category of precipitation, autumn 2026 There is currently a strong consensus for above average temperatures across the autumn. The precipitation signal is weaker, which is often the case with seasonal forecasts. Nevertheless, there is a tilt towards wetter than average conditions. The chart above shows the C3S multi-system precipitation forecast. Background signals In addition to the seasonal models, a number of broader background signals are worth considering: 1) According to the National Weather Service, El Niño is expected to continue strengthening through the end of the year, with a 97% chance of persisting into early spring 2027. While El Niño may influence weather patterns later in the year, it is not generally associated with an increased likelihood of late autumn or early winter cold spells in the UK. 2) The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a below normal Atlantic hurricane season. This could increase the likelihood of wetter conditions during the early part of the autumn. 3) Global temperatures remain high. 4) Sea surface temperatures around the UK continue to be above average. 5) Warmer than average seasons have become increasingly common in the UK in recent years. Autumn 2025 continued that pattern, and 2026 has so far featured temperatures that have frequently been well above average. 6) The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is currently in a westerly phase, and this is expected to persist through the autumn. Overall, these background factors point towards an increased likelihood of a milder than average autumn. They also suggest there is a slightly enhanced chance of wetter than average conditions, particularly during September and October. Models and background signals broadly agree The seasonal forecast models and recent climatic trends both favour a milder than average meteorological autumn. The broader background signals also support the prospect of above average temperatures. On balance, there is also a modest indication that rainfall could end up above average, although confidence in precipitation forecasts is considerably lower than for temperature. The Weather Outlook (TWO) autumn forecast, covering September, October and November, will be issued at the end of August.