Autumn 2026 forecast The UK seasonal forecast headline predicts that autumn 2026 will be milder and wetter than average over the three month period, with an increased chance of stormy spells. Given the dry summer, the prospect of wet conditions is likely to be welcomed by many, but the potential for storms probably won't. By Brian Gaze7th September 2026 Wet weather this autumn? Autumn typically brings a wide range of weather conditions, and in that sense this year is unlikely to be different. The season will coincide with a very strong El Niño, potentially a record-breaking one. Although correlations with weather patterns in western Europe are quite weak, it does heighten the chance of wetter and stormier than average conditions in autumn, particularly in October and November. Forecast considerations The forecast was produced by looking at a number of factors, including: Seasonal forecast models Persistence patterns during recent seasons and historical analogues El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) forecasts Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) Solar activity Summer weather patterns and temperature trends The Weather Analogue Index (WAI) which was tracked through the summer months Long range forecast confidence Seasonal models suggest a milder than average autumn. Recent climatology generally supports this too, although September 2025 was cooler relative to the norm than many recent months. Summer 2026 was the warmest on record for the UK, with mean temperatures exceeding those in 2025, the previous record holder, by more than 0.3°C. Background signals are fairly consistent. The strong El Niño and westerly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) support a strong Atlantic flow through the second half of autumn and the early part of winter. The top 45-day WAI matches were with years that produced close to average or mild autumns. Therefore, although a milder and wetter than average autumn is forecast, other outcomes remain very possible. Long range forecasts are only intended to provide an indication of broad trends, such as whether a season is likely to be wetter or drier, or colder or milder relative to long-term averages. Autumn 2026 forecast