Winter 2026-27 outlook The last cold winter in the UK was 2012–13, although 2017–18 brought the Beast from the East, much of which occurred in March which is meteorological spring. Will we see a cold winter this year? As the 2026–27 winter approaches, this article offers an early indication of what we might expect. It will be updated in the coming weeks as new data becomes available. By Brian Gaze12th September 2026 Will we need to travel to see snow this winter? As ever, it is important to remember that seasonal forecasting in the UK remains extremely challenging. The UK's location means that relatively small changes in atmospheric patterns can have a large impact on our weather. The indicators discussed below can provide useful clues, but none of them can determine exactly what will happen. UK winters from 2008 to 2025 The list below shows temperature anomalies for UK winters since 2008-09. It's important to note that the last significantly colder than average winter was 2010-11. In the UK there has been a tendency for colder winters to occur in small clusters, with the most recent being a period from roughly 2008 to 2013. Before that, a notable cluster of colder winters occurred between 1978 and 1987, with only isolated cold seasons in the interim period. This pattern of warmer periods punctuated by occasional colder winters illustrates why long-range forecasting is so challenging. 2008-09Colder than average. The UK mean temperature for the winter was 3.2°C, which is 0.5°C below average. 2009-10Much colder than average. The UK mean temperature for the winter was 1.6°C, which is 2.1°C below average. In many parts of the UK this was the coldest winter since 1978/79. 2010-11Colder than average. The UK mean temperature for the winter was 2.4°C, which is 1.3°C below average. 2011-12Milder than average. The UK mean temperature for the winter was 4.5°C, which is 0.8°C above average. 2012-13Slightly colder than average. The mean temperature over the UK for winter was 3.3°C, which is 0.4°C below average. 2013-14Much milder than average. The UK mean winter temperature was 5.2°C, which is 1.5°C above the average. 2014-15Close to average. The UK mean winter temperature was 3.9°C, which is 0.2°C above the average. 2015-16 Very mild. The third warmest in the series from 1910. The UK mean temperature was 5.5°C, which is 1.8°C above the average. 2016-17 Very mild. The UK mean temperature was 5.0°C, which is 1.3°C above the average. 2017-18 Close to average. The UK mean temperature was 3.6°C, which is 0.2°C below average. 2018-19 Much milder than average. The UK mean temperature was 5.2°C, which is 1.4°C above average. 2019-20 Much milder than average. The UK mean temperature was 5.3°C, which is 1.5°C above average. 2020-21 Close to average. The UK mean temperature was 3.5°C, which is 0.2°C below average. 2021-22 Milder than average. The UK mean temperature was 5.2°C, which is 1.1°C above average. 2022-23 Close to average. The UK mean temperature was 4.3°C, which is 0.2°C above average. 2023-24 Milder than average. The UK mean temperature was 5.29°C, which is 1.49°C above average. 2024-25 Milder than average. The UK mean temperature was 4.62°C, which is 0.53°C above average. 2025-26 Milder than average. The UK mean temperature was 4.94°C, which is 0.85°C above average. Last winter was milder than average overall. It was also quite wet and dull, with 113% of the 1991-2020 average rainfall and 84% of the 1991-2020 sunshine average. January brought a cold spell in a mostly mild winter Winter 2026-27 indicators A number of indicators are considered when producing the winter forecast. The key ones are discussed below, but they could change during the rest of the autumn. Seasonal models The seasonal models listed below all reach until the end of the meteorological winter. Model Temperature Precipitation UK Met Office GloSea (UK) D/J/F Above average Mostly above average Meteo France (France) D/J/F Above average in the south Mostly above average ECMWF D/J/F Above average in the south No bias or above average DWD (Germany) D/J/F Above average Mostly above average ECCC (Canada) D/J/F Above average Much above average CMCC D/J/F Above average Above average in the far north and south JMA D/J/F Above average Above average in the north and west C3S multi system (European combi) D/J/F Above average Mostly above average CFS v2 (USA) D/J/F Above average Mostly above average D/J/F = December, January, February The Climate Forecast System v2 is available on TWO. View the latest CFS v2 charts. There is a strong signal for above average temperatures across the season as a whole. That has generally been the case in recent years, and the models currently favour this outcome. However, seasonal models cannot predict individual cold spells several months ahead and there have been significant cold spells during the last two Januaries. C3S 2m temperature categories for December - February The precipitation signal favours a wetter than average winter. However, seasonal precipitation forecasts for the UK have a lower level of accuracy than temperature forecasts. C3S Precipitation categories for December - February North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) The NAO is essentially a measure of pressure patterns across the North Atlantic. When the NAO is negative, blocking areas of high pressure are more likely to develop at high latitudes. This can alter the position of the jet stream and increase the chance of cold air reaching mid-latitude locations such as the UK. The relationship between El Niño, the NAO and UK weather is not straightforward. A strong El Niño can influence the large scale atmospheric circulation, but it does not determine the phase of the NAO. The balance of factors could favour a more mobile pattern early in the winter, with the possibility of blocking increasing later on, but this remains uncertain. Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) The QBO index is determined by the strength and direction of equatorial zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere. When the winds are in a westerly phase the index is positive and when in an easterly phase, it is negative. The QBO can influence the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex and the North Atlantic jet stream, although its effects depend on other background conditions. The current expectation is for the QBO to be in a positive (westerly) phase during the coming winter. A westerly QBO generally increases the likelihood of a stronger Atlantic jet and milder, wetter and more unsettled conditions in the UK. However, the influence of the QBO can be outweighed by other factors, particularly when ENSO is strongly positive or negative. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern Pacific are anomalously warm and La Niña when they are colder than average. ENSO influences global weather patterns, although the connection to the UK is relatively weak. Forecasting ENSO conditions several months ahead can be prone to error, but confidence in the current event is now high. The latest NOAA assessment gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27. El Niño can influence the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Europe, but the UK response varies considerably from one event to another. Historically, stronger El Niño events have often been associated with milder and wetter conditions in the first part of the UK winter, although this is not a rule. Later in the winter the signal can become less clear, with blocking and cold outbreaks becoming more likely. Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) The SPV is a large area of low pressure and cold air that circulates around the Earth's poles in the stratosphere during winter. It forms a swirling vortex of strong westerly winds that helps contain the cold air near the poles. A disrupted and weakened polar vortex can sometimes be followed by outbreaks of cold air at mid-latitude locations such as the UK. The current expectation is that the SPV may be relatively strong during the early part of winter. Later in the winter it may weaken, potentially increasing the chance of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. An SSW increases the chance of cold weather in the UK but it does not guarantee it. The resulting weather depends on how the circulation develops in the troposphere and where any areas of high pressure become established. Solar Activity The link between solar activity and UK winter weather remains uncertain and is an area of ongoing research. Some studies have suggested links between solar variability and changes in atmospheric circulation, but any influence on the UK's winter weather is small compared with the major drivers used in seasonal forecasting. Solar Cycle 25 is now around, or just beyond its maximum phase. Solar activity is therefore expected to remain relatively high during the coming winter, although it will gradually decline as the cycle progresses. At present there is not enough evidence to treat solar activity as a strong indicator of whether the UK winter will be mild or cold. Weather analogue index The automated system checks the current state of the 500hPa level in the northern hemisphere and compares it with the same day for every year going back to 1948. As of 12th September 2026, the 5 closest matches over the last 30 days are: 1) 2025 2) 2005 3) 2019 4) 2009 5) 2023 Winter 2025-26 was much milder than average Winter 2005-06 was close to average Winter 2019-20 was much milder than average Winter 2009-10 was much colder than average (coldest of this century so far) Winter 2023-24 was much milder than average The analogues favour a milder than average winter. The big exception is of course 2009-10, which was the coldest winter so far this century in the UK, and was part of a small cluster of colder winters. You can view the latest 30 day index tracker each day to see how it develops. Recent climatology The trend towards above-average Central England Temperature (CET) values has continued since last year, although January was close to average. The values below from the TWO tracker show the recent anomalies against the often used 30 year series as well as the 1659-2020 one. September: 16.2°C (to 11th) 1961-1990: 2.60°C 1971-2000: 2.60°C 1981-2010: 2.20°C 1991-2020: 2.00°C 1659-2020: 2.80°C August: 18.5°C 1961-1990: 3.90°C 1971-2000: 3.60°C 1981-2010: 3.40°C 1991-2020: 3.00°C 1659-2020: 3.80°C July: 19.8°C 1961-1990: 2.40°C 1971-2000: 2.10°C 1981-2010: 1.90°C 1991-2020: 1.50°C 1659-2020: 2.30°C June: 17.5°C 1961-1990: 3.40°C 1971-2000: 3.80°C 1981-2010: 3.40°C 1991-2020: 2.80°C 1659-2020: 3.20°C Developments during the autumn months will have an influence on the full winter forecast which will be issued at the end of November. At this stage it is too early to read too much into developments, though the trend for above average temperatures appears to be continuing. In general terms, a cool and wet September followed by a dry and mild or warm October, followed by a cold and wet November is the pattern we would consider most favourable for a cold winter. Nonetheless, any relationships between these autumn patterns and the subsequent winter are weak and should not be regarded as a reliable forecasting method. A mild and wild winter The forecast for winter 2026–27 will be published at the end of November, covering the period from 1 December 2026 to 28 February 2027. At this stage the seasonal models, background "forcing" mechanisms, recent climatology and analogues all favour a milder than average winter. There are also indications of it being wetter and more unsettled than the norm, with an increased risk of stormy spells. Therefore, a mild and unsettled winter appears to be the most likely outcome at this stage. However, there are also reasons to think the chance of cold spells will increase later in the season. Finally, remember that despite the warming trend apparent in recent decades there are no guarantees. The UK's weather is variable, and although the background odds of a cold winter have changed as the climate has warmed, genuinely cold winters remain possible. A mild seasonal forecast does not rule out significant cold spells, snow or ice during the winter.