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TheWeatherOutlook says is our view. Regular updates are running.
The Computer says uses raw computer model data. Daily updates are running.
Welcome to the Christmas Day 2023 countdown.
The thirteenth update and only 30 sleeps to go. The GEFS35 day ensemble model now has the big day firmly in its sights, so it looking favourable for snow? Unfortunately not. Above average temperatures are shown during much of the second half of December, meaning that snow would only be likely over the Scottish mountains. Nonetheless, remember that computer models often don't firm up until a few days before Christmas.
Aside from the computer models, what do the latest analogues suggest? This week the top 3 matches are 1991, 2020 and 2013. None of them brought snow, but two of them had high pressure building from the south. Therefore, frost and fog could be considerations, but snow wouldn't be.
Taking the above into account, update 13 slightly decreases the chance of a White Christmas in the south and the north.
Factors considered:
1) Recent updates to the the Weather Analogue Index
2) Seasonal computer model updates
However, it is important to remember that these indicators are very broad brush indeed and just for interest at this stage.
Percentage chance of snow on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 12%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 6%
Updates: 1: 01/09/23, 2: 09/09, 3: 16/09, 4: 24/09, 5: 30/09, 6: 08/10, 7: 14/10, 8: 21/10, 9: 28/10, 10: 04/11, 11: 11/11, 12: 18/11, 13: 25/11.
Updated daily
Update 2 - filmed 27th November 2023.
Computer model charts and data to help you make your own forecast.
The GEFS35 charts now cover the Christmas period. The one below updates each day with the latest view. The temperature anomaly forecasts are for approximately 1500m above sea level, providing an idea of how cold or mild an air mass is forecast to be. If you're hoping for colder weather, look for blue shading over the UK!
Blue shading indicates colder than the 30 year average.
Red shading indicates warmer than the 30 year average.
If the past is the best guide to the future, you may find it interesting to check out these charts from Christmases gone. Links open in a new window.
1948, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022
Average December 25th temperatures for the 1981 - 2010 period are shown on the chart below.
© TheWeatherOutlook - https://www.theweatheroutlook.com
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See the Model inventory for the full list of model charts and data
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