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TheWeatherOutlook says is our view. Regular updates are not running yet.
The Computer says uses raw computer model data. Daily updates are not running yet.
Welcome to the Christmas Day 2025 countdown.
Automated updates will start in late July, with manual ones from the start of September.
That said, this is for fun because usually it's not until the middle of December when the fog starts to lift and the Christmas Day weather comes into site. So please enjoy this feature but remember that we are NOT claiming to be able to do the impossible and give an accurate forecast for the Christmas Day weather months in advance!
PS: Our new game, Santa's Puzzle Forecast is now playable, with a new puzzle appearing every day between now and 25th December. Also, you can still play the popular Save our white Christmas game freely this season. Remember that if you want your game scores identifiable you'll need to be logged in with a site (not forum account). You can register here.
Christmas called: Green for the vast majority of the UK
The twenty-seventh update calls a green christmas for the vast majority of the UK. This is the earliest we have ever made a call on the Christmas Day weather because in the UK forecast confidence quickly falls when looking more than about five days ahead.
So why are we confident enough this year to make a call eight days before the big day? The reason is the consistency of both deterministic and ensemble models in recent days. They show high pressure building from the south, with a mild southwesterly flow covering much of the UK. To bring an infamous quote up to date, our view is that the chance of a white Christmas in southern Britain this year is comparable to the chance of aliens landing on the O2 (formerly known as the Millennium Dome).
In the north of the UK, the chance of a white Christmas is statistically higher than in the south, and that remains the case this year. In fact, we consider it possible that some weather stations - most likely in the northern half of Scotland - will record snow on 25th December, but most won't.
Once a call has been made, further updates will only appear here if it becomes clear that things are going wrong. There is, of course, no certainty in forecasting - hence the name. A forecast is based on data analysis and can be wrong.
Percentage chance of snow on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 5%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 3%
Updates: 1: 01/09/24, 2: 10/09, 3: 15/09, 4: 21/09, 5: 28/09, 6: 06/10, 7: 13/10, 8: 20/10, 9: 21/10, 10: 26/10, 11: 02/11, 12: 11/11, 13: 17/11, 14: 24/11, 15: 26/11, 16: 02/12, 17: 05/12, 18: 08/12, 19: 09/12, 20: 10/12, 21: 12/12, 22: 12/12, 23: 13/12, 24: 14/12, 25: 15/12, 26: 16/12, 27: 17/12
Updated daily
Update 5 - filmed 19th December 2024.
Computer model charts and data to help you make your own forecast.
Not yet available for the Christmas period.
If the past is the best guide to the future, you may find it interesting to check out these charts from Christmases gone. Links open in a new window.
1948, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023
Average December 25th temperatures for the 1981 - 2010 period are shown on the chart below.
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