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Will it be a White Christmas?

Welcome to our Christmas 2022 weather forecast. Forecasting even a few days ahead is tough in the UK so how is it possible to confidently predict the weather for a single day months ahead? It isn't! Usually things don't firm up until mid December but it doesn't stop us taking a fun look ahead to Christmas Day.



How many sleeps until the big day?

December 25th countdown

Sep 1st
Dec 25th

Sleeps until Christmas!


Christmas weather forecast

TheWeatherOutlook says is our view. Regular updates are running.

The Computer says uses raw computer model data. Daily updates are running.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
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TheWeatherOutlook says

Welcome to the Christmas Day 2022 countdown.


A very significant cold period of weather is expected to continue into middle December and possibly beyond it. In addition, the Weather Analogue Index has been suggesting that 1978 is a good match with 2022. Therefore, the fifteenth update increases the chance of a white Christmas in the south and north of the UK.

The 30 day Weather Analogue Index is refreshed daily and is considered in all updates.

The latest update factors in:

GEFS and ECM ensemble model data

Analogues which compare weather patterns during the last 30 days with those in previous years.

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 22%.

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 17%. 

Updates: 1: 01/09, 2: 12/09, 3: 18/09, 4: 24/09, 5: 05/10, 6: 12/10, 7: 15/10, 8: 26/10, 9: 29/10, 10: 04/11, 11: 11/11, 12: 18/11, 13: 26/11, 14: 02/12, 15: 07/12.

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The Computer says

  • Too mild for snow in the south
  • Cold and dry conditions in Wales
  • Cold and dry conditions in the Midlands
  • Cold and dry conditions in the north
  • Cold and dry conditions in Scotland
  • Too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
  • Too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
  • Cold and dry conditions in the Netherlands

Forecast updated daily.

Published 08/12/2022 15:44:31

Video forecast

Update 2 - filmed 2nd December 2022.

Christmas period charts and data

Computer model charts and data to help you make your own forecast!

Forecast 850hPa temp anomaly

Charts do not yet reach Christmas week. 

Blue shading indicates colder than the 30 year average.

Red shading indicates warmer than the 30 year average.

The ghost of Christmas past

If the past is the best guide to the future you may find it useful and interesting to check out these charts from Christmases past. Links open in a new window.

1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021

1981 - 2010 temperature average

Average December 25th temperatures for the 1981 - 2010 period are shown on the chart below.

1981 to 2010 average temperatures for Christmas Day




You may be interested in

© TheWeatherOutlook - https://www.theweatheroutlook.com


14 day outlook

Monthly outlook

Seasonal outlook


A huge range of charts and data is freely available.

Models include UK Met Office UKV and MOGREPS-G, ECMWF, NCEP GFS, Meteo France Arpege and Arome.