Plan your summer with more confidence

Summer is here and the outdoor season is in full swing. The deluges in recent months mean the ground is already wet, so staying up to date on weather developments is even more crucial than usual as we head into June, July, and August. UK weather can be notoriously difficult to predict, but this year, we've made significant improvements to the forecasts and tools on The Weather Outlook to help you.
30th May 2024

Wet summer weather
It's raining again!

The available forecasts and data can help you plan ahead with more confidence. However, keep in mind that the weather in the United Kingdom is prone to rapid and unpredictable shifts, making accurate predictions a challenge.

Timeline weather format

The 16 day and hour by hour forecasts can now be viewed in a timeline format as shown on the picture below. On the forecast page, switch the layout to Timeline at the tap of a button.

Timeline weather forecast
Timeline shows the weather at a glance

The timeline view makes it easy to quickly see an overview of how the day is expected to develop. You can set filters to change the timesteps displayed, for example you may only want to view the weather forecast during the day.

Guidance

The hour by hour and 16 day forecasts also show a Guidance section. This provides a written summary of the weather forecast and flags up potential concerns such as strong winds and heavy rain that could cause disruption. It's a great feature which provides an at a glance summary of your weather forecast.

Guidance appears automatically; just scroll down on the forecast to view it. 

The chance of rain

It rains all the time some people will say! However, in the summer months rain amounts often vary greatly over small distances. This is due to the convective nature of much of the rain that falls. Without going into the details too much, the important thing to know is that in the winter bands of rain push in from the Atlantic and move across the UK. They are relatively predictable. In the summer much of the rain comes from showers and they are localised which makes it very difficult to predict exactly where they will hit. For example, you could be enjoying warm sunshine whilst just a few miles down the road thunderstorms are bringing flooding.

Example hour by hour rain forecast
Hour by hour chance of rain

How can the rain forecast be improved? The best we can do is provide a percentage chance of rain falling. On the hour by hour forecasts you'll now find an upgraded version of this which uses a new algorithm. It is adjusted depending on the time of the year and the model data which you have selected (a default is chosen so you don't need to do anything unless you want to dig deeper) to power the forecast. It works by looking at the forecasts for the surrounding areas and then calculating the chance of rain over the area as a whole.

London hourly weather forecast

Will the weather be?

The "Will it be hot", "Will it thunder" and "Will it rain" forecasts have been upgraded recently. They use data from multiple computer models to improve medium range accuracy and give forecasts showing the percentage chance of heat, thunderstorms and rain during the next two weeks. These are ideal when looking more than a few days ahead and work well in conjunction with the 16 day forecasts.

Get your forecast now

Forecasts are accessed from the header by entering a place or UK postcode or using the geolocation butter. When entering a place or postcode it is best to pick from the auto suggest locations.

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COMPUTER MODELS

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Short range
Short to medium range
Medium to long range
Deterministic
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See the Model inventory for the full list of model charts and data