Summer 2024 weather forecast

The TWO summer 2024 weather forecast covers June, July and August. The headline is for slightly above average temperatures and rainfall.
31st May 2024

Summer downpour
Wet weather this summer?

August is expected to be the warmest and driest of the three months, but overall a mixed season is forecast. Thundery outbreaks may occur relatively frequently compared to the average.

Over the three month period the forecast is for Central England Temperature (CET) to be 0.0C to 1.0C above the average. Precipitation levels of between 100% and 125% are suggested.

How is the forecast produced?

Factors considered include the following:

  • A number of long range computer models run by the global forecasting centres
  • Recent climatology
  • Trends during recent seasons
  • ENSO and Atlantic Hurricane season forecasts
  • Pattern matching or analogues from previous years

Forecast accuracy

Long range forecasts for the UK and north western Europe continue to display a low skill, in other words they are often inaccurate. This in large part is because the edge of the European landmass is affected by different air masses which can make even short range forecasting very difficult.

Summer month by month

The June headline is for close to average temperatures and rain amounts to be slightly above the average.

July is forecast to bring slightly above average temperatures and rainfall amounts.

August temperatures are expected to be above the average, with slightly below normal amounts of rain.

Read the TWO seasonal forecast in full.

News and information




Short range
Short to medium range
Medium to long range

See the Model inventory for the full list of model charts and data