UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal outlook is updated every three months. Forecast availability is: Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Summer 2014: Warmish but wet

 

Important note about long range weather forecasts
It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts. 

Overview
Warmer than average but with the risk of heavy rainfall, especially in the south. August is favoured to bring the most settled conditions in the south, July possibly the best month in the north.
 
Temperature
A warmer than average summer is expected. The aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for June, July and August is expected to be 0.5C to 1.5C above the average.   


Precipitation
A slightly wetter than average summer is considered most likely, but regional rainfall could vary considerably and confidence is very low. Over the three month period precipitation levels are expected to be between 90% to 115% of the average.  

June
Temperature: Slightly above average 
Precipitation: Slightly above average 
The first half of June is expected to see changeable weather returning to all parts of the country bringing showers or longer spells of rain. Possibly drier and warmer at times in the east. Through the second week a continuation of the changeable theme is expected, but the best of the drier and brighter spells may transfer west where it could also warm up.

The second half of the month looks set to remain quite mixed with all parts of the country seeing showers or longer spells of rain at times, but also some drier spells, particularly in the north and east. In the east a trend for warmer conditions could develop bringing an increasing risk of thunderstorms and scattered downpours.
July
Temperature: Above average
Precipitation: Slightly above average
The first half of the month is expected to be mixed, although the emphasis may well be on drier and warmer conditions in northern regions. Further south spells of heavy and perhaps thundery rain could develop at times. Temperatures above average in the north and possibly very warm or even hot at times in eastern regions. Cooler in the west. .

During the second half of the month a similar theme is forecast with drier and sunnier conditions relative to regional averages in the north. Towards the end of the month the more settled conditions could become centred further south west, with rain becoming more likely in northern regions. Temperatures in most parts of the UK are expected to be above average over the period as a whole and it could be very warm at times.
August
Temperature: Slightly above average
Precipitation: Close to average

The first half of the month is expected to bring some drier warmer weather, especially to southern and central regions. The north and particularly Scotland may become increasingly unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain and close to average temperatures.

The second half of the month is forecast to be mostly unsettled and often rather cool for the time of year. Significant rainfall is possible either in the form of persistent spells or heavy showers.
     
Forecast Issued 31/05/2014
10 day weather forecast links London - Birmingham - BelfastEdinburgh - Newcastle - Bristol

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