UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal outlook is updated every three months. Forecast availability is: Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Summer: Rather warm

Forecast Issued 31/05/2016

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

Overview

Warmer than average with the possibility of several hot spells of weather. Despite this it is likely to be unsettled at times with rainfall close to average over the season as a whole.

Temperature

A warmer than average summer is expected. The aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for June, July and August is forecast to be 0.5C to 1.5C above the average.

Precipitation

Close to average. Slightly wetter conditions in June and July may be offset by a drier August.

June

Temperature:

Slightly above average

Precipitation:

Above average in the north west, close to average in the south east

First half

During early June some showery rain is probable but there should be a good deal of dry weather. Mostly fine conditions probably last into the second week and it could become very warm for a time. Through the week a transition to more unsettled weather develops from the south west and this brings the risk of heavy and thundery spells of rain. The south east is expected to keep the drier and warmer conditions for the longest.

Second half

The second half of the month looks quite mixed with all parts of the country seeing showers or longer spells of rain, but also some drier spells, particularly in the north and east. During the last third of the month the chance of drier and warmer conditions could increase, especially in the east.

 

 

July

Temperature:

Slightly above average

Precipitation:

Slightly above average

First half

The first half of the month is forecast to be mixed with all regions having wet weather at times but also warm and summery spells. The driest weather will probably be in the south and east. Temperatures should be close to the average.

Second half

During the second half of the month the chance of settled periods leading to very warm or hot spells increases but overall the picture remains mixed. All regions probably have showery spells of rain at times and in the south east thundery conditions are possible.

August

Temperature:

Above average

Precipitation

Below average

First half

During the first half of the month the chance of drier and sunnier conditions is expected to be above average with a chance of it becoming very warm or hot at times. Thundery breakdowns mean rainfall amounts could vary a lot locally but overall they will probably be below the average.

Second half

The second half of the month is forecast to bring further fine and warm spells but there is an increasing likelihood of more changeable conditions and showery rain returning. Temperatures trending back towards the average late in the month.

Other forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook

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