UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal outlook is updated every three months. Forecast availability is: Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Autumn 2014: Unsettled later on

Forecast Issued 01/09/2014

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

Overview
Often fine conditions are expected during the early part of autumn. Through the middle and second half of the season the focus is expected to be on unsettled conditions with close to average temperatures, but perhaps a cooler October.

Temperature
Temperatures are expected to be close to or slightly above the long term average over the three month period.   


Precipitation
Over the three month period rainfall levels are generally expected to be slightly above average.  

September
Temperature: Above average 
Precipitation: Below average

First half: A good deal of settled weather is expected with temperatures often above the seasonal average, especially in the south. Southern and central regions should remain mostly dry during the period, although later on there is an increasing risk of some rain. The north should also have a lot of dry weather, although there will be a higher risk of unsettled weather with showers or spells of rain in these regions, especially later on.

Second half: A transition in the weather is likely to develop with unsettled spells pushing further south. The driest and warmest conditions are still expected in the south with the north seeing the coolest and wettest weather. Overall this period temperatures are expected to be close to average in the north and slightly above average in the south.

October
Temperature: Close to or slightly below average
Precipitation: Slightly above average

First half: Progressively more unsettled weather is expected with wet and windy weather in all parts of the country. Very windy at times, particularly in the north. The best of the drier spells are expected in southern and central regions. Temperatures in the south should be close to average, but in the north slightly below average is more likely.

Second half: Often unsettled and possibly stormy weather is expected frequently through the forecast period. Some heavy spells of rain are expected to push across the country, although brighter and showery conditions should be interspersed with these. Temperatures often slightly below average.

 

November
Temperature: Close to average
Precipitation: Close to or slightly above average

First half: Predominantly unsettled conditions, especially in the north, frequently bringing showers or longer spells of rain. Likelihood of very windy spells. The best of the drier intervals are expected in southern and central regions. Temperatures in the south should be close to or slightly above average, but cooler in the north at times.

Second half: Unsettled weather is expected to affect all areas during this period with stormy conditions at times. Temperatures generally close to or slightly above average for much of the time in the south. Transient colder incursions in northern regions bringing an increasing risk of snow over high ground as the period progresses.

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