UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal outlook is updated every three months. Forecast availability is: Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Winter 2014/15: Mixed, colder at times

Forecast Issued 01/12/2014

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

Overview
A more varied winter is expected than last year’s. An unsettled period bringing above average rainfall, and in the north snow, is expected to develop in late December and last into early February. In the east and south the second half of February is most likely to bring significant snowfall.

Temperature
Slightly below average in the north.
Close to average in the south .   


Precipitation
Close to or slightly above average.  

December
Temperature:
Close to average in the north
Slightly above average in the south 
Precipitation:
Slightly below average

The early part of the month is expected to bring a good deal of dry weather with frost likely at times, although the extent of this could be limited due to cloud cover. In the north it is expected to become more unsettled towards the middle of the month bringing an increasing risk of rain and some snow mostly over high ground. Daytime temperatures generally close to or perhaps a little below the seasonal average but perhaps recovering towards the middle of the month, especially in the south.

A trend to more unsettled conditions is forecast to develop during the second half of the month. Initially these will occur mostly in the north but through the period they will probably spread southwards. Temperatures likely to be above average in the south but staying close to average further north with colder air at times returning from the north. Significant snow is possible over the Scottish mountains and there could be some temporary snowfall at lower levels too. Across the rest of the UK the risk of snow is considered low although obviously greater over high ground in Wales and northern England.

January
Temperature:
Close to average in the south
Slightly below average in the north

Precipitation:
Above average

The month as a whole is expected to bring unsettled conditions with above average rainfall. At times it could be quite stormy and in northern areas colder air is expected to bring the potential for significant snowfall. With temperatures often quite marginal for snow the greatest risk will be over higher ground, but lowland snow is likely too.  In the north temperatures are expected to be slightly below average.

In southern parts of the UK it is also expected to be unsettled with above average levels of rainfall. Temperatures here shouldn’t be too far from the average over the month and any snowfall is expected to be transitional, but perhaps more significant over higher ground.

Towards the end of the month the unsettled theme is forecast to continue but possibly lose its intensity. This could lead to an increasing chance of milder days in the south and close to average ones in the north.

 

February
Temperature:
Slightly below average, possibly below average 
Precipitation:
Slightly below average, possibly below average

The first half of the month is expected to be quite unsettled with temperatures often close to average and above average at times in the south. Rainfall levels probably close to or slightly above the average with drier spells more likely in the south and east. These are expected later on and could lead to an increasing chance of frost.

Through the second half of the month colder and more settled weather is anticipated. This period might bring the highest risk of significant snowfall to lowland areas in the east and possibly south of England in the form of showers. Conditions may be favourable for a widespread snowfall event during this period. North western parts of the UK possibly milder and more unsettled with rain at times.

FORECAST NOTES
The following possibilities were considered possible but less likely than the forecast details above.

Second half of December
Colder incursions become more persistent and widespread with an increasing risk of snow.

January
Colder conditions push the snow risk further south.

Second half of February
A much milder and more benign outcome with the cold block remaining to the east of the UK.

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