UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal outlook is updated every three months. Forecast availability is: Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Summer 2015: Thundery & mixed

Forecast Issued 01/06/2015

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

Overview

Some very warm or hot spells of weather are expected along with thundery breakdowns which could bring large local rainfall totals and cooler conditions.

Temperature

Temperatures are forecast to be slightly above to above the long term average. An aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for June, July and August between +0.2C to +1.2C from the 1971-2000 average is considered the most probable outcome.

Precipitation

Overall rainfall levels are forecast to be close to average across the country but with large local variations.

June

Temperature:

Slightly above average

Precipitation:

Slightly below average

First half

The month begins very unsettled with heavy rain and strong winds in all regions. After the first couple of days it becomes drier and warmer and then more settled weather is expected to continue for much of the period with a chance of warm and possibly thundery conditions at times. The north of the UK probably remains cooler and at greater risk of showery rain and this could sometimes spread southwards.

Second half

Spells of fine and warm weather are forecast to continue. In the south it could become very warm at times. Cooler and showery conditions may return on several occasions bringing a risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms during transitionary periods.

 

 

July

Temperature:

Above average

Precipitation:

Close to average

First half

Very warm and fine spells interspersed with unsettled conditions bringing the risk of heavy rain and thunderstorms. Temperatures generally above average with a chance of hot spells in the south east.

Second half

A similar pattern is forecast to persist bringing the potential for more very warm weather at times but also breakdowns bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms followed by cooler conditions.

August

Temperature:

Close to or slightly above average

Precipitation

Close to average

First half

A more changeable theme bringing the risk of showers or longer spells of rain to all regions is expected. This increases the chances of cooler spells but warmer incursions remain possible, mostly in the in the south eastern corner.

Drier and warmer spells are increasingly likely towards the end of the month. These favour southern and central regions with the north and particularly Scotland probably more changeable with showers or longer spells of rain and close to average temperatures.

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