UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal outlook is updated every three months. Forecast availability is: Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Autumn: Mildish but quite wet

Forecast Issued 31/08/2016

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

Overview

Warmer than average with the possibility of several hot spells of weather. Despite this it is likely to be unsettled at times with rainfall close to average over the season as a whole.

Temperature

Temperatures are expected to be slightly above average over the three month period.

Precipitation

Close to or slightly wetter than average.

September

Temperature:

Above average

Precipitation:

Below average in the south, close to average in the north

First half

A mixed start to the month is expected. In the south there should be quite a lot of dry weather but more changeable conditions affect the north and at times rain spreads southwards. Through the second week the south has quite a lot of fine weather and it may become very warm at times. More changeable weather probably continues in the north west of the UK with temperatures remaining close to the seasonal average.

Second half

A transition in the weather is likely to develop with unsettled spells pushing progressively southwards. The driest and warmest conditions are still expected in the south with the north seeing the coolest and wettest weather. Overall in this period temperatures are expected to be close to average in the north and slightly above average in the south.

 

 

October

Temperature:

Close to average

Precipitation:

Slightly above average

First half

Progressively more unsettled weather is expected to affect all parts of the country at times. Very windy at times, particularly in the north. The best of the drier spells are expected in southern and central regions. Temperatures in the south should be close to average, but in the north slightly below average is more likely.

Second half

Often unsettled and possibly stormy weather is expected frequently through the forecast period. Some heavy spells of rain are expected to push across the country, although brighter and showery conditions should be interspersed with these. Temperatures often slightly below average.

November

Temperature:

Close to or slightly below average

Precipitation

Slightly above average

First half

Predominantly unsettled conditions, especially in the north, frequently bringing showers or longer spells of rain and the likelihood of very windy spells. The best of the drier intervals are expected in southern and central regions. Temperatures in the south should be close to or slightly above average, but cooler in the north at times.

Second half

Unsettled weather is expected to affect all areas during this period with stormy conditions at times. Temperatures generally close to or slightly above average for much of the time in the south. Transient colder incursions in northern regions bringing an increasing risk of snow over high ground as the period progresses.

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