UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal outlook is updated every three months. Forecast availability is: Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Winter: Average but cold core

Forecast Issued 01/12/2016

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

Overview

Close to average temperatures are expected over the three month period as a whole. However, a very cold and potentially snowy spell during the middle of the winter is forecast to be sandwiched in between the mild spells and there is considerable uncertainty. Rainfall is predicted to be slightly below the average.

Temperature

Close to average.

Precipitation

Slightly below average.

December

Temperature:

Slightly above average

Precipitation:

Slightly above average in the north west, slightly below average in the south east

First half

The early part of the month brings a good deal of dry weather with some nighttime frost but the extent of this will be limited due to cloud cover. Milder conditions develop during the second week and it gradually becomes more changeable with an increasing risk of rain, particularly in the west.

Second half

Predominantly changeable weather is forecast. All regions have spells of rain but the most unsettled periods are likely in the north west where it also becomes windy on occasion. Over the period as a whole temperatures will probably be close to average. During drier and clearer spells nighttime frosts develop in central and eastern regions but snow will probably be reserved for higher ground in the north.

 

 

January

Temperature:

Below average

Precipitation:

Below average

First half

The first half of the month is expected to start on a rather mild and unsettled note with the risk of showers or longer spells of rain in all regions. Windy spells of weather are also likely. As the period progresses a transition to a much colder and wintry spell of weather is considered the most probable outcome. This brings the risk of significant snowfall, especially to eastern and northern regions. Frosts are also likely to become widespread and severe, and persist through the days at times. 

Second half

Cold but mostly dry conditions are expected early on. As the forecast period progresses a gradual change to more unsettled and milder weather probably develops in the north west and spreads southeastwards across all regions. As the milder conditions return transitional snow is possible. Eastern regions may remain rather cold for much of the period.

FORECAST NOTE: A significant spell of wintry weather is considered the most likely outcome and this is reflected in the January forecast. However, the chance of milder conditions dominating through this period is thought to be only slightly less probable and if this happened the winter as a whole would probably turn out to be milder than average.

February

Temperature:

Close to average, possibly slightly above average.

Precipitation

Close to average, possibly slightly below average

First half

The first half of the month sees unsettled weather developing with temperatures often close to the average and possibly above average at times in the south. Rainfall totals will probably be close to or slightly above the average but drier spells are more likely in the south and east. Later on drier spells become more frequent and lead to an increasing frost risk.

Second half

Through the middle of the month colder conditions may develop for a time and bring a risk of widespread nighttime frosts, and sleet or snow to the north. Later in the period unsettled conditions return and in the south it becomes much milder. In the north temperatures could remain close to the average.

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