UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal outlook is updated every three months. Forecast availability is: Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Winter: Milder than average

Forecast Issued 30/11/2015

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

Overview

A milder and wetter than average winter is forecast but despite this most areas are expected to see lying snow. Colder outbreaks compared to the average are likely to be more frequent in the north. Nationwide cold snaps are most probable around mid-December, the second half of January and mid-February.

Temperature

Above average.

Precipitation

Above average.

December

Temperature:

Slightly above average

Precipitation:

Above average

First half

Mostly unsettled. Temperatures overall are forecast to be quite close to average but colder incursions are more likely in the north. Rainfall amounts are generally expected to be above the average, especially in the north and west. The south and east have the best of the drier periods.

Second half

The period around the middle of the month may bring a quieter spell of weather and it could become significantly colder with the risk of frost and fog developing quite widely, and the potential for snow increasing in the north. Increasingly unsettled and often milder weather then returns from the northwest and extends southeastwards across all regions during the final third of the month.

 

 

January

Temperature:

Above average

Precipitation:

Above average

First half

Often unsettled or even stormy conditions are predicted bringing above average rainfall to all regions. Despite the likelihood of above average temperatures over the period as whole, it could at times be cold enough for substantial snowfall over higher ground in the north.

Second half

Predominantly unsettled conditions persist but the chances of colder weather increase. A cold snap lasting for several days may be sandwiched into this period with milder and more unsettled conditions before and after. During the colder period there could be a nationwide risk of snow.

February

Temperature:

Slightly above average

Precipitation

Close to average

First half

Generally quite unsettled with temperatures mostly close to or above the seasonal average.  Rainfall levels probably close to or slightly above the average with drier spells more likely in the south and east.

Second half

Mid month could bring a spell of much colder weather with a risk of sleet and snow for a time in all regions. Through the second half of the month unsettled and eventually very mild conditions are expected to return from the west. Quieter and drier spells remain more likely in the south and east.
.

You may be interested in

© TheWeatherOutlook - http://www.theweatheroutlook.com


DISCUSSION

Regularly updated discussion forecasts.

14 day outlook

Monthly outlook

Seasonal outlook

Christmas outlook