Overview
A slightly cooler than average spring with generally close to average rainfall is expected. Rainfall amounts in the north and west could tend to be lower than average with amounts in southern and central regions above average.
Temperature
Temperatures are expected to be slightly below average over the three month period. A deviation of between +0.2C to -0.8C from the 1971-2000 average is expected.
Precipitation Over the three month period aggregated precipitation levels are generally expected to be close to average.
March
Temperature: Close to average
Precipitation: Slightly above average
First half
The first half of the month is expected to bring dry conditions with close to average temperatures initially. A gradual change to milder and unsettled weather is likely during the second half of the first week, and this should continue into the second week of the month. Significant rainfall is expected in all areas at times. Towards the middle of the month temperatures could fall, bringing an increasing risk of frost and sleet or snow at times to the north and over higher ground. The south may also become colder at times with overnight frosts returning.
Second half
The second half of the month will probably start off unsettled, with showers or longer spells of rain affecting all of the country at times. In northern regions there could be some sleet or snow early on. Later on in the period temperature may trend towards or slightly above average with some drier spells likely in all regions.
April
Temperature: Below average
Precipitation: Slightly above average
First half
The first half of the month is expected to bring back rather unsettled and chilly conditions, with heavy and possibly wintry showers or longer spells of rain at times. On balance temperatures in the north are more likely to be below average and in the south closer to average. There is likely to be an on-going risk of overnight frost.
Second half
The second half of the month will probably start off with unsettled conditions and close to average temperatures. This should give a mix of sunshine and showers, as well as days with more persistent outbreaks of rain. Showers could become heavy and thundery with hail. Later on the chances of warmer and drier spells should increase, most notably in the south.
May
Temperature: Slightly above average
Precipitation: Slightly below average
First half
Rather changeable weather is expected early in the month with showers or longer spells of rain and close to average temperatures. Towards the middle of the month increasingly dry and warmer conditions are more likely, especially in the south and east.
Second half
The second half of the month should often see temperatures trending above average with a reasonable amount of dry and sunny weather. Less settled conditions are expected to return at times towards the end of the month, with a chance of heavy and possibly thundery showers or longer outbreaks of rain.
Forecast Issued 01/03/2013
Key
Temperature
Much above average - the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be more than 2C above the 1961-90 average
Above average – the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be 1C to 2C above the 1961-90 average
Close to average – the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be between 1C below and 1C above the 1961-90 average
Below average – the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be 1C to 2C below the 1961-90 average
Much below average - the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be more than 2C below the 1961-90 average
Rainfall
Much above average - expected to be more than 150% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series
Above average - expected to be between 125% and 150% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series
Close to average - expected to be between 75% and 125% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series
Below average – expected to be between 75% and 50% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series
Much below average - expected to be below than 50% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series