The seasonal outlook is updated every three months. Forecast availability is: Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.
Forecast Issued 31/08/2015
Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.
A fairly average autumn is forecast with temperatures overall close to average but perhaps with a marginal bias towards slightly below average. A trend towards above average rainfall amounts is expected to develop in October and November.
Temperatures are expected to be close to the long term average over the three month period. Slightly below average is considered marginally more probable than slightly above average.
Quite a dry start is expected but over the three month period rainfall levels are expected to be above slightly above the long term average.
Close to or slightly below average
During the first week of the month a cool and showery spell develops. The showers are likely to be most frequent in the north and east with drier conditions developing in the south and west. Quite cool nights bring a risk of ground frost in the west and north. The second week probably sees more changeable weather returning to the northern half of the UK with an increasing chance of showers or longer spells of rain. The south may remain mostly dry for much of the period but the risk of rain perhaps increases later.
Unsettled and wetter weather is expected to slowly spread southeastwards through the second half of the month. Drier spells continue too, especially in the south and east where rainfall may be below average during this period. Temperatures close to average in the north but possibly slightly above average in the south.
Close to or slightly above average
Unsettled weather is expected bringing showers and longer spells of rain to all of the UK. Windy on occasion, particularly in the north. The best of the drier spells are likely to be in southern and central regions. Temperatures in the south should be close or slightly above average, but in the north slightly below average is more likely.
Often unsettled and very windy. Bands of heavy rain are expected to push across the country, although brighter and showery spells are expected too. Temperatures close to the seasonal average.
Slightly above average
Mostly unsettled weather bringing widespread rainfall and windy conditions to all regions is the favoured outcome. The wettest conditions are likely in the north and west. Temperatures often stay close to the seasonal average, although colder incursions are possible at times, especially in the north where there is an increasing chance of sleet or snow over high ground in Scotland.
The general theme is expected to be an unsettled one with wet and windy conditions prevailing. Colder spells in northern regions could bring an increasing possibility of sleet or snow over higher ground. Temperatures in the south are forecast to be close to average..
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