The month ahead

The monthly outlook is based on output from various global forecasting models combined with our own analysis.

July: Warmer than average


Above average.


Below average but large local variations are possible.



1/7 to 7/7

Hot and fine start but mixed later.

Very hot and sunny at first. During the first few days cooler air gradually returns from the west with the highest temperatures in eastern regions. Scattered thunderstorms are likely at times and a more organised band of rain spreads northeastwards during the middle of the week.

The second half of the week is expected to be quite changeable in the north and west with showers or longer outbreaks of rain at times but also drier spells. In the south east and east the emphasis is on drier and warmer weather but some showery rain is possible too.

8/7 to 14/7

Often dry and settled.

The southern half of the UK probably remains warm or very warm for much of the time with sunny periods but also a risk of showers or thunderstorms and occasionally more organised bands of rain. More changeable and cooler in the north with a greater risk of rain.

15/7 to 31/7

Forecast confidence for this period is low.

The probabilities favour a good deal of dry and settled weather through the second half of the month and the chance of further hot spells is considered high. The highest temperatures and driest conditions are likely in the south but local rainfall totals could vary a lot due to the possibility of thunderstorms. Rainfall levels and temperatures closer to average in the west and north west.

NOTE: The probability of a more unsettled outcome during this period is considered less likely but still quite high.

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

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