The month ahead

The monthly outlook is based on output from various global forecasting models combined with our own analysis.

October: Often changeable


Close to average.


Slightly above average.



1/10 to 7/10

Settled start but becoming changeable.

Settled and fine conditions during the first half of the forecast period bring pleasantly warm days but cool nights with a risk of ground frost and fog. During the second half of the period wet and windy weather is forecast to spread northwards and gradually eastwards, eventually affecting the whole of the country. Ahead of the rain in the east it could be quite warm.

8/10 to 14/10

Often changeable.

Changeable weather continues through the week with a risk of showers or longer spells of rain in all regions. Drier periods are also likely with the south and east having the best of these. Very windy at times, particularly in the north west. Temperatures generally close to or slightly above the seasonal average in the southern half of the country but perhaps cooler in the north west.

15/10 to 31/10

Forecast confidence for this period is low.

A fairly typically changeable pattern is forecast to affect most of the UK during the second half of the month. In this scenario all regions can expect wet and windy conditions but also drier spells at times. Periods of rain are likely to be most frequent and heaviest in the north west of the UK with a greater chance of drier spells in the south east. Temperatures close to the seasonal average and at this time of the year that brings a risk of nighttime frosts and fog during quieter interludes.

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

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