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Issued Sunday 27th July 2014
Week 1A mixed week but in the south still warm and sunny for much of the time.
On Monday cloudier conditions with heavy thundery downpours are expected in the south east and East Anglia bringing a risk of localised flash flooding. A few showers elsewhere, particularly the west, but these shouldn't be as heavy and there will be warm sunny spells.
During Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday southern regions should be mostly dry and warm with sunny periods. Maximum temperatures could still reach 27C (81F) on Tuesday. Further north and west cooler with showers or longer spells of rain, but also brighter interludes.
By Friday and through the weekend there is a risk of more unsettled weather extending further south and east across the rest of the UK. Top generally close to the seasonal average, but possibly still warm or even very warm in the south east.
Forecast confidence high early on, but falls quite sharply for the second half of the week.
Week 2Mixed weather is expected throughout the week. All parts of the UK could see showery rain at times, but drier and warmer spells are also likely.
A north west to south east split is expected. Rain more likely in the north west. Warmer and drier spells more favoured in the south east.
Despite mixed weather being considered the favoured outcome for this week the possibility of it being warmer and drier is not discounted, so keep up to date with the site homepage.
Forecast confidence is low through this period.
OverviewDuring the early part of the period low pressure between Iceland and Scotland will bring more of a westerly flow than we've had recently across northern regions. Further south high pressure still influencing things. Towards the end of the first week areas of low pressure may start digging further south.
Confidence on developments through the second week is low. The chances of a flip back to a high pressure dominated spell are considered to be similar to the chances of a westerly flow remaining in place.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysisThe GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.
The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
Benign day mixed outlook (homepage)
Regularly updated discussion forecasts.
14 day outlook
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