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UK outlook issued Sunday 20th August 2017
Warm in the south for a time but mostly unsettled.
Monday: Outbreaks of rain across England and Wales become patchy and some sunny spells develop. In Northern Ireland heavy outbreaks of rain are expected and they extend into north western England and much of Scotland during the day. Feeling quite warm and muggy in the south.
Tuesday: Showery spells of rain affect much of the north and west. In the south and east there should be a good deal of dry weather but there is a risk of showers.Warm in southern and central regions but cool in Scotland.
Wednesday: Outbreaks of rain are expected to clear eastwards across central and northern regions with brighter and fresher conditions returning. In the south a mostly dry day is expected. Still warm in East Anglia and the south east.
Thursday, Friday: Showers or longer spells of rain affect the north and west. The south and east have a reasonable amount of dry spells but some showery rain is likely. Quite cool in the wet areas but in central and eastern England temperatures should be close to the seasonal average.
Saturday, Sunday: Unsettled conditions are probable but the details are uncertain. All regions could have showers or longer spells of rain at times. The best chance of drier and warmer periods is in the south east.
Forecast confidence is moderate.
Changeable but perhaps drier and warmer periods in the south.
Bank Holiday Monday is expected to be cool and showery. During the rest of the week it remains changeable with a risk of rain at times but also dry and sunny periods, with the best of them in the south. There is a moderate chance of it becoming very warm in the south at times.
During the first week of the forecast period the UK remains under an Atlantic flow. The remnants of Hurricane Gert track to the northwest and the embedded tropical air brings higher temperatures to southern and central areas for a time. Disturbances in the flow are expected to bring a very mixed Bank Holiday weekend.
During the second week a continuation of the changeable Atlantic driven theme is likely in the north of the UK. In the south high pressure could become more influential leading to a chance of warmer incursions.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis
The GFS is the computer model on which we base our 16 day weather forecasts.
Showers or longer spells of rain affect all regions. The Bank Holiday weekend is looking changeable.
For a huge range of data see the chart viewer which provides output from the HIRLAM, CFSv2, GEM, GFS, GEFS, ECM, WW3, Arpege, Arome and Fax models and works on PCs, tablet computers such as the iPad and smartphones.
The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
Check the latest local weather forecasts using the place of postcode selector near the top of this page. Links below are to UK discussion and long range outlooks on the site.
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