14 day UK: Cooling off

Issued Thursday 30th October 2014

Week 1

Exceptionally mild early in the period with Halloween possibly turning out to be a record breaker. During the middle of the week cooler and showery conditions are expected to develop.

Friday: Most of the country should have a dry day with bright spells at times. It will be exceptionally mild, possibly record breaking with a chance of 21C (70F) being recorded in southern or central regions. Late in the day wet and windy conditions are expected to return to western regions.

Saturday, Sunday: Outbreaks of rain will push eastwards early in the weekend but in the south east they are likely to be light and patchy. Another band of rain moves in from the west later on Saturday pushing south eastwards during the night and through Sunday. There could be some heavy bursts of rain mixed in. Temperatures becoming closer to the seasonal average in the north west, but the south east probably remaining very mild.

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday: Cooler and showery weather is expected across all of the UK. The showers could be heavy at times in the north west and fall as snow over high ground in Scotland. Chilly nights are expected with the risk of overnight frost increasing, particularly in the north. Daytime temperatures should be close to average in the south and slightly below average in the north.

Thursday: Cloud and outbreaks of rain are set to return from the west, but at this range there is uncertainty about the timing. The south east is most likely to remain dry. Temperatures close to the early November average.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high.

Week 2

During the first half of the week unsettled spells are expected in all regions with rain at times, especially in the west. Temperatures becoming close to the seasonal average.

A number of scenarios are possible through the second half of the week, but the favoured one is for unsettled weather to persist. In the south there is a greater chance of drier and milder spells. In the north it could become colder at times with the chance of sleet or snow over high ground.

Forecast confidence is low to moderate through this period.

Overview

Early in the period an exceptionally warm south westerly flow will cover the UK. Through the middle of the first week low pressure in the Atlantic is expected to push weather fronts across the UK with cooler air following them. A weak ridge of high pressure may then topple over the UK before another area of low pressure returns from the west.

During the second week a predominantly westerly flow is favoured keeping the unsettled theme going. Other scenarios could develop including transitionary colder outbreaks in the north of the UK.

 

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