14 day UK: Showers then frost risk?

The 14 day UK weather forecast is issued twice weekly. Update Thursday 24th April 2014

Week 1
During the first few days of the week showers or longer spells of rain are expected to affect most of the UK. Despite the mixed weather temperatures should be reasonable in brighter spells. Through the middle and latter parts of the week further showers are expected with some of these becoming heavy. By the end of the week it may become significantly colder in northern regions with the risk of overnight frost and sleet or snow showers over high ground. Forecast confidence through the period is moderate but low on the details, so keep an eye on the local postcode forecasts.

Week 2
Confidence is low, but early in the period rather cold air may push south bringing showery conditions. Probably turning drier mid-week but some cold nights with a frost risk are possible for a while. Later on possibly staying dry but temperature picking up again. Forecast confidence is low during the week.

Overview

Early in the period low pressure will deepen over the UK bringing the potential for heavy showery rain to much of the UK. Through the second half of the first week pressure is expected to remain high to the north and west of the UK and this could open the gate to a plunge of arctic air in northern parts of the UK. Week 2 could see high pressure close to the UK and with chilly air trapped underneath it night time frosts could be quite widespread before milder air filters back in to the mix.

Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis
The GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.

Points of note
Mixed weather with showers or longer outbreaks of rain at times. Possibly becoming colder for a while with a risk of frost returning. Don't forget our upgraded chart viewer page now offers output from the HIRLAM, GFS, GEFS, ECM, WW3 and Fax output brand new seasonal charts are now available using data from the CFSv2 model. The chart viewer page works great on PCs and tablet computers such as the iPad.

Chart
 


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