14 day UK: Cooling off

Issued Thursday 18th September 2014

Week 1

After a very warm start a change to more average conditions is expected to develop.

Friday: A dry start is expected in most of the country with sunny periods developing through the morning. It will become very warm in southern and central regions. Top temperatures close to 26C (78F). Through the day scattered but heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop in the south and extend into central regions during the afternoon. Northern England should be mostly dry but in Scotland there will be more cloud and some patchy rain.

Saturday: Very warm again in the south with sunny periods but also the risk of thundery downpours. In northern regions outbreaks of rain are expected and these could be heavy, particularly in the north east. The rain will push south eastwards through the day with clearer and cooler air following on behind it.

Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: Conditions are expected to much closer to the late September average though this period. It is likely to be changeable in the north with showers or longer spells of rain, but also drier days. The rain could spread southwards at times, but amounts are expected to be small in southern counties. Temperatures on the whole not too bad for late September, but noticeably cooler than early in the week.

Forecast confidence is high falling to moderate later on.

Week 2

During the first half of the week a north to south split is expected. In the north changeable conditions with showers or longer spells of rain are favoured. In the south less rain is likely with quite a lot of dry and bright weather expected. Temperatures close to average in the north but above average in the south.

The second half of the week may bring drier and warmer conditions back across the whole of the country. This is very uncertain and a range of outcomes are possible.

Forecast confidence is low through this period.

Overview
During the early part of the week low pressure to the south west will gradually slip away as high pressure builds in from the west. This means the very warm continental air will be pushed away. A more defined westerly flow is expected during the second half of the first week, with the Azores high pressure having influence on the weather in southern and possibly central regions.

During the second week a range of options are possible, but high pressure may remain a key player over the UK. Confidence on developments through the second week is low.

 

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