UK outlook issued Thursday 19th January 2017
Often chilly with widespread frost.
Friday: All regions have a dry day. Cloud amounts vary but sunny spells are expected to develop widely. After a cold start with frost in places it will stay quite chilly.
Saturday, Sunday: Cold and and mostly dry weather continues. Nighttime frosts develop widely and locally they could be severe with temperatures falling as low as -10C (14F) in a few places. During the days there should be a good deal of sunshine but thicker cloud could bring a few light snow flurries on Sunday.
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: Dry and rather cold conditions persist early on with further nighttime frosts. Later on outbreaks of rain return to the west and steadily push across the country. There is uncertainty about the eastwards progress of the wet weather.
Forecast confidence is moderate but low towards the end of the period.
Changeable weather spreads eastwards. All regions are expected to have rain at times as weather fronts move in from the Atlantic. There will be dry periods too with the best of these in the east. Temperatures will be close to or slightly above the seasonal average.
Forecast confidence is low to moderate.
High pressure remains centred close to the UK for much of the first week. Towards the end of the week weather systems begin encroaching the UK from the Atlantic and the flow of colder continental air is cut off.
During the second week a transition back to more changeable weather is forecast as high pressure pushes away eastwards and disturbances from the Atlantic return.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis
The GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.
High pressure brings a good deal of quiet and rather cold weather during the first week. During the second week more unsettled weather is forecast with rain affecting all regions.
For a huge range of data see the chart viewer which provides output from the HIRLAM, CFSv2, GEM, GFS, GEFS, ECM, WW3, Arpege, Arome and Fax models and works on PCs, tablet computers such as the iPad and smartphones.
The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
Check the latest local weather forecasts using the place of postcode selector near the top of this page. Links below are to UK discussion and long range outlooks on the site.
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