14 day UK: Mixed Easter outlook

Issued Sunday 29th March 2015

Week 1

Changeable but possibly drier during the Easter weekend.

Monday: A dry and cold start with a frost in places, mostly in the north of the UK. During the day wet and very windy weather spreads eastwards across most of the country. The rain is likely to be heavy at times. Later in the day and overnight gales develop in much of the country.

Tuesday, Wednesday: Sunny spells and heavy showers. The showers could bring hail and thunder with snow over high ground in the north. Very windy with gales on Tuesday making it feel particularly cold during the showers. Winds moderating on Wednesday and the showers becoming more scattered.

Thursday: Cloud and outbreaks of rain move up from the south west to affect much of southern and central Britain. The north east probably remains mostly dry and quite cold with brighter spells.

Good Friday: Outbreaks of rain which could be heavy at times are forecast to push north eastwards across much of the UK. Becoming quite mild in the south but cold in the north with a risk of snow over the Scottish mountains.

Saturday, Easter Sunday: A good deal of dry weather is expected. Variable cloud amounts means there is a reasonable chance of sunny spells developing at times. Feeling quite cold out of the sun with temperatures probably below the early April average.

Easter Monday: After a dry start outbreaks of rain may spread across western and central regions. The east perhaps remains dry. 

Forecast confidence is high early in the period but fall to quite low by Good Friday.

 

 

Week 2

Mixed.

The favoured outcome is for northern regions to remain changeable with showers or longer spells of rain at times. In the south some rain is probable but there is a better chance of dry spells. 

Daytime temperatures close to average on the whole but fluctuating with both colder and milder periods possible.

Forecast confidence is moderate to low.

Overview

During the early part of the forecast period a mobile westerly based pattern is expected with disturbances bringing a more widespread risk of rain on occasions. Through the Easter weekend high pressure will probably be close to the UK. By Easter Monday the high pressure area may be declining with a disturbance from the Atlantic moving into the west of the UK.

Through the rest of the forecast period there are indications of high pressure building close to or over the UK at times.

Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis

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