UK outlook issued Sunday 21st May 2017
Becoming fine and very warm.
Monday: Outbreaks of rain spread across central and northern areas, and at times they become heavy. The south has a dry day with pleasantly warm sunny spells.
Tuesday: Wet weather affects the northern half of Scotland. Elsewhere a mostly dry day is expected but in the south a few light showers may break out. Feeling warm during sunny spells.
Wednesday, Thursday, Friday: Some light and patchy rain is possible in the north west at the start of the period, but elsewhere it will be dry with sunny spells. It is likely to be very warm and locally temperatures could reach 27C (81F).
Saturday, Sunday: There is uncertainty but on balance most places are expected to have a good deal of fine and very warm weather. Thundery downpours are a possibility and there is a risk of more prolonged spells of rain pushing into the north west of the UK.
Bank Holiday Monday: Very warm or hot conditions are considered probable in southern and central regions. There is a risk of thunderstorms and perhaps longer spells of rain in the north west. NOTE: Forecast confidence is low.
Forecast confidence is high early on but falls to low.
A transition to cooler and changeable weather takes place early in the week. The second half of the week sees further mixed conditions with temperatures generally quite close to the seasonal average.
Forecast confidence is low.
During the first few days of the forecast period high pressure builds from the south and it becomes centred across the UK. Through the second half of the week the high pressure slips eastwards allowing a very warm continental airflow to develop, but an area of low pressure could push up from the southwest.
Through the second week slack pressure patterns are predicted. Areas of low pressure probably have more influence on the UK's weather.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis
The GFS is the computer model on which we base our 16 day weather forecasts.
The first week brings a good deal of warm and fine weather. There is uncertainty about the Bank Holiday weekend prospects and generally a more changeable theme returns for the second week.
For a huge range of data see the chart viewer which provides output from the HIRLAM, CFSv2, GEM, GFS, GEFS, ECM, WW3, Arpege, Arome and Fax models and works on PCs, tablet computers such as the iPad and smartphones.
The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
Check the latest local weather forecasts using the place of postcode selector near the top of this page. Links below are to UK discussion and long range outlooks on the site.
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