14 day UK: Unsettled start then fine

Issued Thursday 28th May 2015

Week 1

Unsettled but possibly warm towards the end of the week.

Friday: Strong winds and outbreaks of heavy rain spread eastwards across southern and central regions during the morning. Elsewhere it is a brighter and showery picture. The showers could be heavy and squally at times. Through the afternoon the persistent rain clears from the south eastern corner to be replaced by brighter showery conditions. Cool for late May with maximum temperatures close to 16C (61F) in the south.

Saturday: Scattered showers in northern and eastern regions but farther south and west mostly dry with sunny spells. During the afternoon cloud increases in the west with outbreaks of rain arriving in Northern Ireland and western Britain during the evening.

Sunday: Rain spreads eastwards to affect most of the country for a time. Clearer and brighter weather follows on from the west but the rain may linger in the south eastern corner until the evening.

Monday: After a dry start cloud and rain spread in from the west. The rain could become very heavy in the west during the afternoon and evening. Overnight heavy outbreaks of rain push eastwards. Becoming very windy with a risk of gales. Note: Forecast confidence is low.

Tuesday: Persistent rain should clear to leave a mix of heavy showers and sunny spells. Very windy with a widespread risk of gales. Possibly very chilly for early June. Note: Forecast confidence is low.

Wednesday, Thursday: Drier and much warmer conditions are expected to develop in the south and then spread northwards. On Tuesday there could still be rain in the north.

Forecast confidence is moderate but low later in the week.

 

 

Week 2

Mostly fine and warm.

The first half of the week is forecast to bring a good deal of warm and sunny spells to all of the UK. In the south it may become very warm with temperatures of 27C (81F) possible.

Through the second half of the week the north probably remains fine but in the south there is an increasing possibility of thundery outbreaks of rain pushing up from the continent. Warm or very warm for most areas but cooler near in eastern coastal counties.

Forecast confidence is moderate to low.

Overview

Through the early part of the forecast period areas of low pressure keep it unsettled and there is a chance of it being notably windy for the time of year. Towards the end of the first week confidence is high that pressure will build from the south.

During the second week the favoured outcome is for high pressure to become centred farther north. In this scenario the north of Britain is most likely to be settled with a growing chance of showers or more persistent rain in the south. 

Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis

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