14 day UK weather

Changeable start but then drier and warmer

UK outlook issued Thursday 29th September 2016

Week 1

Becoming drier and warm in the south and east.

Friday: All regions have a mix of sunshine and showers. Showers are likely to be the heaviest and the most frequent in the west with a good deal of dry weather in the east. Temperatures close to the seasonal average.

Saturday: Heavy and persistent showers affect England and Wales. Scattered showers are also probable in Scotland and Northern Ireland but there should be more emphasis on drier and brighter periods. Rather cool.

Sunday: A mostly dry and bright day is forecast but there could be a few isolated showers around. After a chilly start temperatures approach the seasonal average.

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: Changeable conditions are expected in the north and west of the UK with an ongoing risk of showers or longer spells of rain. In the south and east it should be mostly dry with sunny spells and well above average temperatures during the days.

Forecast confidence is high.

 

 

Week 2

Changeable in the north.

Northern regions remain changeable through the week with an ongoing risk of wet and windy weather but also drier periods. In the south a good deal of dry spells are likely early on but the risk of rain increases through the middle and second half of the week. Temperatures remain mostly above the seasonal average.

Forecast confidence is moderate.

Overview

During the first week areas of high pressure build over the UK and the continent and block the progression of weather fronts as they push in from the west. The west may remain under an Atlantic influence at times.

Through the second week high pressure declines allowing an Atlantic based pattern to sink southwards across the UK. The south and east may remain under the influence of high pressure for much of the time.

Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis

Points of note

Cool and showery weather is expected at the start of the period but it turns warmer and more settled for the start of October. An Indian Summer of sorts is possible.

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