Issued Thursday 27th November 2014
A good deal of dry weather is forecast. After a mild start temperatures are expected to fall back to average or possibly below for a time.
Friday, Saturday: A good deal of dry weather across most of the country, but in the north there could be some patchy rain and this may become more persistent in the north west later on Saturday. Mild or very mild in the south but temperatures close to average in northern regions.
Sunday: Rain clears away from Scotland to leave a dry day with variable amounts of cloud. Mild in the south but temperatures close to average in the north.
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: A good deal of dry weather is likely through this period, but there is a chance of outbreaks of mostly light rain pushing south eastwards at times. The risk of nighttime frosts and fog could increase, especially in the south. Temperatures slightly below average in the north early on but recovering later. Possibly becoming chilly in the south if fog lingers.
Forecast confidence is moderate.
During the first half of the week unsettled conditions in the north and west probably extend eastwards over the rest of the country. Temperatures close to the seasonal average.
The second half of the week is set to remain quite unsettled, especially in the west. Drier spells are more probable in the east. Temperatures mostly close to average.
Forecast confidence is low to moderate through this period.
During the first week a ridge of high pressure will build in from the south west. There is uncertainty about how far north this will become centred. If it stays to the south west the UK would remain under a westerly flow which would probably be quite cloudy and increasingly mild after a colder incursion. If it builds over the UK there is the potential for frosty and foggy weather to develop.
During the second week high pressure is expected to decline with an increasingly mobile and quite mild westerly flow developing over the UK. There is a chance of high pressure building to the north west of the UK opening the gate to a colder plunge of arctic air. This is not considered the most likely outcome.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysisThe GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.
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