14 day UK: Changeable Easter weather

The 14 day UK weather forecast is issued twice weekly. Update Wednesday 16th April 2014

Week 1
A mixed week is expected. On Thursday outbreaks of rain will push south, but these are likely to become mostly light and patchy. Quite warm ahead of the cloud and rain, but cooler once it clears in the north. Good Friday should be a mostly dry day but cloudier spells are probably in central and eastern England with the best conditions in the north and west. A cold start to Saturday with a patchy frost, then a mostly dry day. Some drizzle or light rain could affect East Anglia and the south east at times. Easter Sunday and bank holiday Monday are expected to bring showers or longer spells of rain to much of the UK. Initially the rain mostly in the south, but this pushing progressively north and west especially on Monday. The rest of the week probably quite changeable with an ongoing risk of showery rain. After a warmish start temperatures dropping below average for a time in the south with an east or north easterly flow developing. In the north possibly the opposite with a chilly start followed by milder conditions. Forecast confidence through the period is quite low so keep an eye on the local postcode forecasts.

Week 2
Confidence is low, but generally changeable weather is expected with all areas possibly having showers or longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures close to the late April average. The driest conditions possibly in northern regions. Although not the most likely outcome, there is thought to be a reasonable chance of it becoming generally drier and warmer. Forecast confidence is low during the week.

Overview

Early in the period low pressure will push up from the south. This brings the potential for showers or longer spells of rain later on in the Easter weekend. Through the rest of week 1 high pressure is expected to be centred to the north of the UK. Week 2 could see high pressure moving closer to the UK, but on balance this is thought to be less likely than a continuation of a similar pattern to week 1.

Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis
The GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.

Points of note
The Easter weekend is expected to see the weather turning more unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain. There is still uncertainty about the details so keep an eye on the latest forecasts as well as the rain radar if you're intending to head out! Don't forget our upgraded chart viewer page now offers output from the HIRLAM, GFS, GEFS, ECM, WW3 and Fax output brand new seasonal charts are now available using data from the CFSv2 model. The chart viewer page works great on PCs and tablet computers such as the iPad.

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