Issued Thursday 02nd July 2015
Changeable in the north.
Friday: A dry day for most with sunny periods. Warm or very warm and hot in the south east with top temperatures close to 29C (84F). By the evening outbreaks of heavy and thundery rain develop in the south and spread northwards overnight.
Saturday: Outbreaks of thundery rain continue to affect northern regions during the morning but these should ease off with bright spells in the afternoon. A mostly dry day with sunny periods in southern and central regions although there could be some early rain in the east. Very warm or hot in central and eastern regions.
Sunday: In the north and west a mix of sunshine and heavy showers is expected. Quite cloudy in the east but probably mostly dry. Temperatures down on recent values but still warm in brighter spells in eastern England.
Monday: Dry and warm with sunny spells across central and eastern England. Cloudier elsewhere with outbreaks of rain spreading northeastwards.
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: Changeable with showers or longer periods of rain in the north and west. Some rain may push through to the east to but here a lot of dry weather with sunny periods is likely and it will be warm or very warm.
Forecast confidence is high early on but the details for the second half of the week are very uncertain.
Mostly settled in the south.
The favoured outcome is for mostly settled weather in southern and eastern counties. Temperatures generally remain above average with the possibility of very warm spells. In the north and west a more changeable picture is probable with showers or longer periods of rain and temperatures close to the July average.
NOTE: There has been a lot of uncertainty about the medium term outlook recently. Check the site homepage and local place or postcode forecasts for the latest prospects.
Forecast confidence is low.
During the first week areas of low pressure to the west of the UK are expected to push hot air eastwards back into the continent. A more changeable pattern is expected but the continental heat won't be far away and could return to the south east at times.
Through the second week high pressure probably hangs on in the east and south and perhaps extends northwards.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis
The GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.
After a hot start it becomes more changeable with showers or longer spells of rain at times in western and northern regions. Wetter conditions may push into the south east at times but here a good deal of dry and warm weather is expected.
The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
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