14 day UK: Rather cold

Issued Thursday 11th February 2016

Week 1

Rather cold.

Friday: Patchy outbreaks of rain affect southern and possibly central counties. The north has a mix of sunshine and wintry showers, snow could fall to low levels at times. Rather cold with a frost early and late in central and northern regions.

Saturday, Sunday: Patchy outbreaks of rain affect southern and central counties, over high ground these may turn to sleet or wet snow. The north of the country has wintry showers and these may become heavy and prolonged at times in northern England, bringing snow down to low levels. Rather cold with nighttime frosts readily forming where skies clear.

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: Wintry showers affect eastern counties early in the period but most of the country has cold and dry weather. Nighttime frosts develop widely. Late on Tuesday an area of rain, sleet and snow may spread eastwards across all regions. Forecast confidence is low but there is the potential for a more prolonged period of snow.

Forecast confidence is high early in the period but falls to low later on.

 

 

Week 2

Mixed.

Unsettled conditions are expected to return to the north west, bringing showers or longer spells of rain and possibly snow over high ground. In the south and east a good deal of dry weather is expected. After quite a chilly start temperatures become close to the February average and possibly quite mild by the end of the week.

Forecast confidence is low to moderate.

Overview

Early in the forecast period areas of low pressure are expected to track southeastwards across the UK. After the first few days a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Towards the end of the first week weather fronts probably begin pushing in from the west and as these bump into cold air over the UK there is the potential for a period of snow. 

The second week could see high pressure continuing to influence the weather in the south and east. In the north and west more of an Atlantic influence is expected.

 

Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis

Points of note

The first week is expected to be quite cold. In the north showers will be wintry, falling as snow at times. During the second half of the first week there is a risk of more widespread snow developing as weather fronts move in from the Atlantic and collide against the cold block over the UK.

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