Issued Sunday 19th October 2014
An unsettled and at times very windy week is expected.
Monday: Most of the UK should have a good deal of dry weather but there will be scattered showers. Generally mild, particularly in the south. During the evening wet and windy weather will be returning from the west.
Tuesday: Stormy conditions with heavy rain and strong winds will sweep south eastwards across the UK. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are likely to be in the north west. As the rain clears it is will become quite a lot colder than in recent days.
Wednesday: After a chilly start in all regions the south should have a mostly dry day with sunny spells. In central and northern parts cloud and rain are likely to return from the west. Temperatures starting to edge back towards the seasonal norm.
Thursday, Friday: Mostly unsettled in the north with showers or longer spells of rain and close to average temperatures. In the south there should be quite a lot of dry spells and it may become mild again.
Weekend: The unsettled conditions could sink further south with outbreaks of rain in much of the country. Temperatures on the low side in the north but close to average in the south.
Forecast confidence is moderate to high.
During the first half of the week it is expected to remain unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain at times, especially in the west. Eastern regions may be drier. Temperatures close to the seasonal average.
The second half of the week could see increasingly dry weather developing over southern and central regions. In the north it is more likely to remain unsettled with an ongoing risk of showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures mostly close to the seasonal average.
Forecast confidence is moderate through this period.
Early in the period the remnants of ex hurricane Gonzalo are expected to track eastwards across Scotland. The expectation is for stormy conditions to develop, but for these not to be exceptional for late October. Once the storm clears away high pressure may begin to influence the weather in the south with weather fronts keeping it unsettled further north.
Through the second week high pressure could begin to build close to the UK but there is uncertainty about this.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysisThe GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.
The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
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