Issued Thursday 30th July 2015
Friday: Southern and central regions have a dry day with sunny spells. Cloudier in the north with outbreaks of rain which could be heavy in the west. Temperatures close to average in the south but cool in the north.
Saturday: Cloud and patchy rain spreads south across central areas. To the north of this a mix of sunshine and showers is expected and to the south it stays dry with brighter spells. Quite warm in the south but rather cool in the north.
Sunday: Dry with bright spells in the south. Cloudier farther north with outbreaks of rain in Scotland and Northern Ireland. The south could be very warm with temperatures close to 26C (78F).
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: Mixed. Very warm or hot to begin with in the south east but more changeable in the north west with outbreaks of rain. Through the rest of the period showers or longer spells of rain affect the north and west, and temperatures remain close to or slightly below the average. The south east perhaps has quite a lot of dry and warmish weather with fewer showers and a lower risk of more persistent rain.
Forecast confidence is high early on but moderate to low later on.
The favoured outcome is for mixed weather during the first half of the week. In the south and south east it could be mostly dry and warmish but the north west remains cooler and more changeable. During the second half of the week a mostly changeable pattern is expected to persist.
NOTE: There continues to be low confidence in the medium term outlook recently. Check the site homepage and local place or postcode forecasts for the latest prospects.
Forecast confidence is low.
During the first few days an area of low pressure deepens to the west of the UK. This is likely to pull up very warm air from southern Europe into eastern England for a time but keep the weather more unsettled in the west. The favoured outcome for the second half of the first week is for a westerly flow to cover much of the country.
During the second week ridges of high pressure may bring drier periods to the south. In the north the predominant theme is a westerly one.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis
The GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.
The prospects for the forecast period are mixed. The south could be drier and warmer at times with periods of rain more frequent in the north.
The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
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