Issued Thursday 26th May 2016
Mixed but warming up.
Friday: Most of the country has a dry and bright start but there could be some showery rain near the south coast. Sunny spells develop in southern and central regions but showers break out and during the afternoon these become heavy and thundery in the south. More cloud is likely in the north and this could produce a few light showers. Warm in the south.
Saturday: Many places have a fine and pleasantly warm day with sunny spells. Cloud will bubble up during the day and in southern and western counties showers are likely, and these may be heavy and thundery. Temperatures in the south could reach 22C (72F) locally.
Sunday: Another reasonable day is probable in much of the country but again there is a risk of cloudier and showery conditions at times. Showers are most likely across England and Wales and there may be a few heavy ones in Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Quite warm in the sunshine.
Bank Holiday Monday: The northern half of the UK probably has a dry day with sunny spells. In the south cloud is expected to build and outbreaks of rain push in from the south east. The extent of the rain risk is uncertain at this stage.
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: Heavy showers and perhaps longer spells of rain are possible but there should be some dry and sunny periods too. Cool in the wet areas but warm in the sunshine.
Forecast confidence is moderately high.
During the first half of the week quite a lot of fine and warm weather is forecast although the risk of showers continues in the south.
The second half of the week could see wetter weather returning from the west or southwest. There is a chance of it becoming very warm and humid for a time but temperatures probably fall by the end of the period.
Forecast confidence is very low.
Early in the forecast period high pressure will be centred to the northeast of the UK. On Bank Holiday Monday low pressure is expected to move up from near continent and remain close to the UK during the rest of the week.
Early in the second week a slack pressure pattern is likely with high pressure centred to the north. Through the week there is the risk of disturbances bringing a return to more unsettled conditions but very warm air from southern Europe could be pulled up towards the UK.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis
The GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.
The Spring Bank Holiday weekend is looking mixed. Warmer conditions are likely but there is a risk of heavy and thundery showers pushing up from the south. On Monday more persistent rain may affect the south.
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