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Issued Sunday 28th September 2014
Showery rain early on in the south and then towards the end of the week becoming more unsettled.
Monday: In Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland outbreaks of rain are likely. In England and Wales after a dry and mild start heavy showery rain is expected to push up from the south. Brighter and drier weather possibly returning to the south during the afternoon with some warm sunshine developing.
Tuesday: In the north west cloudy conditions with outbreaks of rain are likely, but elsewhere a dry day with sunny spells. Still warm in the south with temperatures close to 21C (70F).
Wednesday: Cloud and patchy outbreaks of rain in the north west are expected to move south eastwards through the day becoming mostly light. Clearer and cooler conditions following into the north west. Ahead of the rain in the south east it will be warm again.
Thursday: After a chilly start with some ground frost in northern regions a mostly fine day is probable. Quite warm in the south, but cooler in northern regions.
Friday: In the north west a spell of wet and windy weather is expected to move in from the Atlantic. Some of the rain is likely to be heavy and there is a risk of gales. Further south east the dry weather should hang on and in sunny spells it will probably remain warm in the south.
Saturday, Sunday: A significant change to more autumnal weather is expected. A spell of rain accompanied by strong winds is likely to push south eastwards over the whole of the UK with cooler and showery conditions following on behind. The heaviest showers are likely to be in the west with eastern areas possibly mostly dry on Sunday.
Forecast confidence is moderate.
During the first half of the week it is expected to be quite unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain at times, especially in the west. Eastern regions may be drier. Possibly very windy at times. Temperatures close to the seasonal average, perhaps below in the north.
The second half of the week is expected to be changeable with showers or longer spells of rain possible in all parts of the country. Temperatures mostly close to the seasonal average but perhaps below in the north.
Forecast confidence is low through this period.
OverviewDuring the early part of the first week high pressure is expected to remain over the UK with Atlantic weather fronts weakening as they move south eastwards. Through the later part of the first week a change is expected with high pressure slipping away and a trough developing close to the UK.
Through the second week a range of options is possible. High pressure over the continent may have an influence on the weather is the east, but further low pressure is likely to dominate.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysisThe GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.
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