Issued Sunday 30th August 2015
Unsettled start then drier and quite chilly.
Bank Holiday Monday: Wet and windy weather spreads eastwards across England and Wales bringing heavy bursts of rain at times. Clearer conditions follow on behind from the west during the afternoon. In Scotland and Northern Ireland a mix of sunshine and showers is expected throughout the day.
Tuesday: Showers develop widely with the heaviest ones in the north and east where they could merge together to give more persistent spells of rain. Some sunny periods develop too, the best of these in southern counties. Windy in the north and temperatures generally on the low side for the beginning of September.
Wednesday, Thursday: Showers continue but in the west they become lighter and increasingly scattered. In the east some of the showers could still be quite heavy and a good deal of cloud is probable. Quite chilly.
Friday, Saturday, Sunday: Showers become increasingly isolated with many places having dry conditions. Temperatures remain low for the time of year and there is a chance of overnight mist. In northern areas clear periods at night may lead to a risk of ground frost.
Forecast confidence is high early on but falls to moderate during the second half of the week.
The start of the week is expected to be dry and chilly in the north west but in the south east there could be a few showers. Through the course of the week a transition back to more unsettled weather in the north west is the favoured outcome. At the same time the south may become warmer and stay mostly dry.
Forecast confidence is moderate.
During the first week low pressure gradually pulls away northeastwards and high pressure builds to the west of the UK. This allows a northerly flow to develop, pulling down increasingly cool air towards the UK.
During the second week high pressure collapses southeastwards over the UK. This allows Atlantic disturbances to return to the north west bringing a more unsettled pattern back. In the south high pressure perhaps remains the dominant weather feature.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis
The GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.
During the first week drier conditions are forecast to develop but chilly nights are possible as the UK sits under a cool northerly air stream.
The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
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