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Gonzalo 3 and the pizza

Posted Mon, 20 Oct 2014 11:52:25

This morning’s GFS6z computer model run shows the remains of Gonzalo heading eastwards across northern parts of the UK early tomorrow. The strongest winds look likely to be in the north west but all of the UK can expect a windy Tuesday! The chart below shows forecast wind gust speeds for mid-day tomorrow. Very blowy, but as I said before this doesn’t look likely to be exceptional for the time of year; not a ‘top 10′ event.

06_30_windvector_gust

As well as windy it will be wet with a band of heavy rain pushing south eastwards. The heaviest rain is probably going to be in the west and particularly north west where there could be some flooding.

06_24_precipratec

As Gonzalo clears east temperatures will plunge as much colder air tucks in. All in all tomorrow isn’t going to be a pleasant day across the UK. By Wednesday milder air should be returning from the south west and with pressure rising it shouldn’t be too bad in southern and central regions.

Longer term it looks like the UK will continue to hold on to its ‘pizza slice warmth’ for much of what is left of October. As we head towards November high pressure could start bringing a change in conditions.

What’s this ‘pizza slice’ business? Very simply the the wedge of  above 0C 850hPa air which sits over the UK and at times other parts of north west Europe in the late autumn and winter when other areas of land around the planet at the same latitude are generally much colder. It’s something to look out (or not if you’re hoping for a bone chiller winter) for in the coming months.

This morning’s GFS6z illustrates the general idea with a long fetch south westerly flow pulling mild air from the Azores towards the UK next week.

06_204_mslp850

Check all the latest charts from the link below and look out for changes later this week as our new server hopefully comes online and is followed by more and better charts!

Chart viewer

Your comments


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RDSPAINTING 1 day ago
Oh come on Brian let's have some snow ! 😀

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