Regularly updated thoughts from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder. Follow @TWOweather to keep up to date with Brian on Twitter and login with your social media account below to post comments.
The details of the weather prospects for the Easter period remain quite uncertain. High pressure is likely to have more influence on our weather through the second half of next week but day to day variations are probable as it wobbles around. This has an impact on temperatures but perhaps more importantly on whether it remains dry or not.
This morning’s GEFS and GFS6z combined ensemble plot for London is a little less promising than some of the output from the last couple of days suggesting a chance of rain on Good Friday and next Saturday. The comparable plots for locations farther north show a greater risk of rain and possibly snow over higher ground in Scotland.
Easter Sunday and Monday look more likely to bring drier weather to southern and central parts of the UK with a risk of showers or rain remaining as you head into north western parts of the UK.
GEFS6z 850hPa temperature, precipitation and snow row plot for the London region
This morning’s GFS6z operational run taken in isolation shows one of the most favourable outcomes with high pressure drifting across the UK to bring a dry and quite bright Easter Sunday.
GFS6z surface level pressure plot for 15GMT Easter Sunday
It also shows temperatures soaring widely to a pleasantly warm 16C (61F) as the UK sits under a warm wedge of air pulled up from the south west. Perhaps those choccie eggs will need to kept out of the sun or better still, eaten quickly?
GFS6z maximum temperature plot for 15GMT Easter Sunday
The important caveat to remember is the GFS6z is showing a warmer and more clement outcome than most of the computer model runs. I’m posting it to inject a touch of spring optimism into the discussion! Those of you seasoned in the vagaries of the British weather will know the outcome is most likely to be not as good as the best of the computer predictions and not as bad as the worst.
The Easter weather prospects aren’t definite and in the next few days I expect to see the details changing. High pressure close to the UK means a washout isn’t expected and some of the computer model runs show the potential for fine and even quite warm spells. Despite this I’m still favouring a mixed period with fine conditions at times but also the risk of rain and colder incursions in the north.
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