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September prospects

Meteorological autumn starts mixed?

Posted Tue, 23 Aug 2016 09:58

The start of the meteorological autumn is knocking on the door again. Often in recent years September has seemed more like a continuation of the summer than the start of autumn so how are things shaping?

Changeable start?

The latest ensemble computer models suggest quite a mixed and average start to September. The plot below showing 850hPa temperatures and precipitation for London goes out to September 8th. The things to note are:

1) On the top half temperatures take a tumble after this week's warmth. Beyond 29th August the most likely outcome is for temperatures to be close to the average overall. Some runs still push 850hPa values above 10C so there are likely to be some warm days mixed in.

2) On the lower half of the plot there are some precipitation spikes, especially during the first few days of September. It's not looking overly wet but some rain can be expected in the south east and similar plots show a wetter picture farther northwest. Pretty typical.

GEFS London



The forecast data points towards quite an average start to the meteorological autumn. The caveat is that in recent weeks warmer spells have popped up at quite short notice so I'd not rule out the possibility of this happening again during the first half of September. The meteorological calendar may say autumn has arrived but summer could still have other ideas.

Chart viewer

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