Regularly updated news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder. Follow @TWOweather to keep up to date with Brian on Twitter.
The weather prospects for Valentine's weekend remain uncertain. The trend during the last 24 hours has been for computer models to push areas of low pressure slightly farther north. This means milder air over southern counties leading to rain rather than snow. But...
The chart below is from this afternoon's GFS12z run and is valid for 09:00GMT, Sunday 14th February. The thing to note is that although low pressure is pulling away eastwards the 850hPa temperatures across southern and central Britain are at or above -5C. As I said last night a number of variables need considering but I would expect rain in southern counties with an increasing chance of snow as you head northwards into central regions, for example the Peak District.
If the snow prospects this weekend are low for most of us does next week offer better odds? The consensus from the computer models in recent days has been for a westerly flow to become re-established. This would snow becoming restricted to high ground in the north. However, today there have been tentative suggestions of high pressure building over Scandinavia and influencing the UK's weather.
Today's GFS12z run shows the UK becoming a battleground between cold continental air, and milder and moister air from the Atlantic. As weather fronts push in from the west and hit the cold air over the UK rain turns to snow. This is one of the best set-ups for bringing widespread snow events but it has been as rare as hen's teeth in recent years. Given this and the fact that only a few model runs are showing it means I wouldn't bet on it!
The chart below is from today's GFS12z and shous the UK cold - mild battleground scenario on Wednesday 17th February.
Wintry weather in the south is possible in the south this weekend but it looks less likely than at this time yesterday. Next week most computer model runs show a westerly flow gradually returning from the Atlantic but an alternative scenario has the milder push running out of steam as it heads eastwards. This could lead to a battleground scenario developing over the UK and the potential for snow. At the moment it's not the most likely outcome.
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