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Regularly updated thoughts from from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder. Follow @TWOweather to keep up to date with Brian on Twitter and login with your social media account below to post comments.
I’m sure during the next few months many of you will be looking out for snow. Unfortunately I can’t promise you that it will arrive but I can offer a new tool on the site to help you forecast it. As from today the GEFS 850hPa temperature and rainfall plots also show whether snow is expected.
The plot below is from this afternoon’s GEFS12z and shows the output for London / south east England. A lot of you will be familiar with the line graphs, the top one showing 850hPa temperatures which are at about 1500m above sea level and give a good indication of the air mass because they aren’t subject to day to night variations. The lower one shows rainfall or to be more correct, precipitation.
The new addition is at the bottom of the plot and is what I’m calling the ‘snow row’. Each number on the row shows the total of GEFS computer model runs which are forecasting snow at that point in time. I’ll spare you the details but the maximum number at any one point should be 23 indicating snow is likely. The minimum number is 0 which is simply saying ‘none of the GEFS runs at this point in time are forecasting snow for this location’.
The London / south east England plot below shows 0s all the way across the snow row meaning that none of the GEFS runs are showing snow at anytime during the next 16 days.
To convince you that the snow row doesn’t always show 0s I’ve pasted in the plot for Moscow. You’ll see the numbers range from 0 to 23 with the high numbers matching up with the period when the air mass is very cold.
That’s really all there is to the snow row. It’s a simple but very useful tool which you can already access from the chart viewer by selecting GEFS – 850 Precip – Location. In the next couple of days direct links will be added from the homepage too.
Hope you enjoy using this in the coming weeks and don’t always find 0s across the snow row when you check UK locations.
PS: I’ll write about the winter prospects tomorrow. Promise!
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