Regularly updated news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder. Follow @TWOweather to keep up to date with Brian on Twitter.
At the start of June there was speculation that summer would bring heatwave after heatwave. We've still got two months to go but so far it has been very wet and there's little sign of immediate change.
Medium range computer models continue to favour changeable weather. The plot below from today's GEFS12z ensemble model displaying forecast 850hPa temperatures and precipitation for the next 16 days in the London area.
The lower half of the plot shows rainfall spikes continuing, but it's not looking like a washout and I would expect some reasonable days in the mix. On the upper half of the plot the 850hPa temperature spread increases during the second week of June and there are a few very warm runs in the mix. This suggests there is a chance of it becoming significantly warmer through this period (at least in the south) but it's not at all certain.
The ensemble plots for locations farther north also support the changeable theme and if anything look wetter with more frequent rainfall. The most likely pattern is a westerly flow across the UK with high pressure occasionally building from the south west. Towards the middle of July some warmth may be pulled in off the continent.
The weather this summer has been disappointing so far and there is no sign of a major change in the next couple of weeks. Drier spells are more likely in the south but even here there will be further rain. During the second week of July there is a possibility of it becoming a lot warmer.
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