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Early June another view

Posted Wed, 20 May 2015 14:50:25

In my last post I had a look ahead to the prospects for early June and today I’ll expand on that a little. Instead of showing the line graphs which plot each run from the GEFS model for the next 16 days I’ll use a couple of the postage stamp charts. The key difference is they show the output from each individual run for one point in time. Here I’ll show data for 18GMT, Thursday 4th June.

The first one to look at is the rainfall forecast. Just by taking a quick glance it’s clear many of the 22 individual runs are showing the risk of rain over much of the UK. At this range computer models display a low skill level (a nice way of saying they’re not very accurate) and the key is to look at trends not details. The trend here is quite clear and it isn’t currently towards dry weather.

precip_372_ps_slp

The other postage stamp plot I’ll post is the maximum temperature forecast. Most of the individual runs are showing temperatures to be on the low side for early June. A smaller number are warmer with a few with a few bringing much higher temperatures into northern France and towards southern England. Therefore, the most likely outcome is for mediocre temperatures with a lower chance of it being warm.

2m_maxtemp_372_ps_slp

Summary

The latest stills looked mixed and perhaps a tad disappointing as we head into early June. On the plus side it is still early days and most summers save their best for July and August. At least that’s the theory.

Chart viewer

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brian.gaze 19 minutes ago
Climatology based on April and seasonal forecast models suggest a mixed summer.

michaeljames 40 minutes ago
I agree jo.mcleod...I live in Bolton & other than the 3 days in April you mentioned it has been Wet/windy/halestone..another poor summer ahead I think.

brian.gaze 1 day ago
The 16 day temperature forecast spreads this evening don't look great. There will be some warmer days but I'd not be surprised to see the strong wind continuing to be a problem at times in the next 10 days j0.mcleod.

db.campbell 1 day ago
Very good question. Its been below par generally for weeks now. I personally think our 2015 summer is turn out to be a very cool cloudy one with NW dominated winds and the jet stream well south of what it should be. ...

j0.mcleod 1 day ago
When will this biting strong wind abate? In Lancashire we have had heavy downpours and cool days throughout Spring except for three sunny days in late April.The sun only appears around 4 and temperatures are often only reaching 10 degrees at best.

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