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Regularly updated thoughts from from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder. Follow @TWOweather to keep up to date with Brian on Twitter and login with your social media account below to post comments.
In the last few days there have been significant changes in the medium range forecast models with most moving towards a more unsettled and autumnal outlook. The details aren’t certain but it looks like later this week we’ll finally see a spell of wet and windy weather pushing south eastwards across the UK with temperatures falling back to the seasonal average. After the long period of calm and relatively warm conditions I expect it may come as quite a shock! With the seemingly endless summer in the south especially it’s easy to forget it’s now less than two months until Christmas.
The GFS6z forecast chart below is for next Monday and shows a deep autumnal area of low pressure just to the north west of the UK. The tightly packed isobars around indicate that as well as wet conditions we can also expect it to be windy. Also note the build of pressure over Greenland. which would be interesting in the winter months. This particular run goes on to show that breaking down later on with a flatter westerly flow developing.
The GEFS6z 850hPa temperature plot (the upper one on the chart below) shows the change to cooler and more autumnal conditions quite nicely. Between 3rd to 5th October the 850hPa temperature average falls from close to +10C to about +3C! The rainfall plot (the lower one) also indicates a wetter outlook.
Finally, one note of caution. There indications of the Atlantic trough backing a little further west and this could allow drier spells to develop in eastern regions as we go through next week. It also potentially could result in warmer air being pulled up from the south again. So although the outlook is now a distinctly autumnal one don’t entirely rule out the possibility of another warmer spell.
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