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Regularly updated thoughts from from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder. Follow @TWOweather to keep up to date with Brian on Twitter and login with your social media account below to post comments.
This morning I thought there was a reasonable chance of cross model agreement developing during the course of the day with the GEFS ensemble set increasingly pointing towards a cold spell in the post Christmas period. That’s not quite how things have worked out today.
The GFS and GFSP model runs have generally pointed to a shorter and less potent cold snap. In the case of the latest GFS run things remain very mild for much of the country on Christmas Day and beyond.
Tonight’s ECM run shows a short lived colder incursion on Christmas and Boxing day with the chance of a few wintry showers in the north. It then turns milder but ends with high pressure over Greenland. Although the UK remains relatively mild at the end of the run on December 28th, it is the type of pattern which could lead to a cold spell a few days later on.
Tonight’s GEFS runs complete the mixed picture as the plot plot below for London and the south east shows. During the Christmas period most of the runs are now leaning towards quite a short cold snap (if there is to be one at all), but there is still a lot of uncertainty with some favouring a more potent wintry spell.
The snow row numbers are lower than on this morning’s run too, although of course cold and dry is a possible outcome.
In summary there remains a decent chance of a short cold snap and the possibility of a longer one. Nonetheless, on balance today the computer models are suggesting a less cold and wintry picture through the rest of December than they were at this time yesterday.
Christmas Day itself looks green for most of us. The best chance of a white Christmas is in the north where there could be wintry showers.
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