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Toying with a cold spell

Posted Thu, 27 Oct 2016 10:15

The medium range weather details are uncertain at the moment. It looks like high pressure will centred to the west of the UK and this brings the potential for cold east or northerly winds as the Atlantic flow is blocked off.

Ice in November

Weather lore says "Ice in November to bear a duck, the rest of the winter will be slush and muck." Could we be heading for an early wintry blast this November? The medium range computer models in recent weeks have been persistently favouring a blocked pattern with the Atlantic flow being weaker and having less influence on the UK's weather than normal. This increases the chance of northerly or easterly winds bringing colder weather.

This morning's GFS00z run shows high pressure centred to the north by Sunday 6th November. At this point most of the UK is still sitting under a mild air mass. However, it wouldn't take much for things to turn a lot colder and the model run goes on to show this happening.



The ECM00z run shows high pressure centred to the west with the UK under a northwesterly flow. It's not very cold but again the picture in the Atlantic is quite a blocked one and a cold spell could develop.




The GEFS ensemble model also favours colder conditions during the first third of November although there is a wide range of solutions on offer. 


Medium range computer models continue to show quite a blocked picture across the North Atlantic region and this means an increased chance of a cold spell in November. At the moment the details are uncertain so it remains a case of watching and waiting. However, my hunch the chances of November snow are higher than usual this year. Whether that means the rest of the winter will be mild is a different question that I'll look at in future.

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