Regularly updated thoughts from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder. Follow @TWOweather to keep up to date with Brian on Twitter and login with your social media account below to post comments.
In my last post I had a look ahead to the prospects for early June and today I’ll expand on that a little. Instead of showing the line graphs which plot each run from the GEFS model for the next 16 days I’ll use a couple of the postage stamp charts. The key difference is they show the output from each individual run for one point in time. Here I’ll show data for 18GMT, Thursday 4th June.
The first one to look at is the rainfall forecast. Just by taking a quick glance it’s clear many of the 22 individual runs are showing the risk of rain over much of the UK. At this range computer models display a low skill level (a nice way of saying they’re not very accurate) and the key is to look at trends not details. The trend here is quite clear and it isn’t currently towards dry weather.
The other postage stamp plot I’ll post is the maximum temperature forecast. Most of the individual runs are showing temperatures to be on the low side for early June. A smaller number are warmer with a few with a few bringing much higher temperatures into northern France and towards southern England. Therefore, the most likely outcome is for mediocre temperatures with a lower chance of it being warm.
The latest stills looked mixed and perhaps a tad disappointing as we head into early June. On the plus side it is still early days and most summers save their best for July and August. At least that’s the theory.
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