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Warm but very heavy rain too?

Posted Sat, 25 Oct 2014 12:42:11

Next week looks notable and there is the potential for severe weather. Computer model runs are showing a steep temperature gradient developing across the UK as colder air moving down from the north meets very warm air from southern Europe over the UK. The border looks like becoming slow moving and close to it there is the potential for very heavy and rain.

Today’s GFS6z run shows temperatures as high as 19C (66F) in the south on Monday and Tuesday. Very high for late October and locally it could be a touch warmer, but in Scotland maximums will probably be closer to a chilly 9C (48F). The GFS6z chart below shows 850hPa temperatures (these are the values at approximately 1500m above sea level) and thickness (lower indicates colder air) values. The oranges and reds in the south show a warm air mass with the greens in the north indicate a much cooler one.

06_81_ukthickness850

As I said this set-up has the potential to bring very heavy rainfall to parts of the UK with the worst conditions likely in the north. The GFS6z precipitation chart for 6GMT on Tuesday shows the heavy rain affecting north western parts of the UK. Remember that at this time it may already have been raining in these areas for quite a long time so there is the potential for flooding.

06_72_precipratec

The GFS6z shows the rain moving south into northern England during Tuesday afternoon and it remains very heavy, especially in the west.

06_81_precipratec

The GFS6z run goes on to show the rain moving erratically southwards on Wednesday and Thursday before drier conditions finally return on Friday. Those don’t last long before more heavy rain returns from the west as the weekend approaches.

The details for next week are likely to change but I’d not be surprised to see the weather making the headlines with the combination of very heavy rain in the north and unseasonal warmth early on in the south. Beyond next week indications now point towards a continuation of the unsettled theme with high pressure perhaps having less influence than was looking likely a couple of days ago. I expect some of you will now be wondering whether we’re heading for a rinse and repeat of last year!

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