Regularly updated news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder. Follow @TWOweather to keep up to date with Brian on Twitter.
Temperatures today could reach an unusually mild 18C (64F). As we go through the week it will turn colder in the north and by early March there is a possibility of wintry conditions becoming more widespread. There's even a chance of snow being back on the menu.
The last couple of GFS operational runs have shown a cold spell developing in late February and early March with the risk of snow returning. The catalyst for this is a rise in pressure to the northwest of the UK. How likely is this scenario?
The latest ensemble model data which is used to assess confidence levels in the GFS output suggests a mixed picture as we head into March. The London GEEFS06z 850hPa temperature plot shows a wide spread of outcomes with values ranging from -10C to +10C. The GFS 6z operational run which is forecasting a significant cold spell is represented by the thick green line on this graph. A few of the ensemble runs support it most don't.
The GEFS06z postage stamp charts are another way of viewing the data. The one below is for Friday 3rd March. At this stage there's little support for high pressure to be centred to the northwest of the UK. Nonetheless, a few of the runs have a shorter lived cold incursion developing in the preceding days.
The postage stamp plot below shows forecast maximum temperatures on Friday 3rd March. There are a few colder outcomes but most of the runs have temperatures peaking at 10C or higher.
The weather is set to turn colder in the north later this week and the south will lose the unusually mild conditions. As we head towards the end of February and through early March there are tentative indications from recent operational model runs of wintry weather returning. It's too early to be confident about this and most of the ensemble data favours a less cold and more changeable view.
Open between 7am and 11pm for weather discussion only. Off topic comments may result in your account being blocked.
Sign in with your TWO account or use your existing Facebook, Twitter account to post comments and use 1-TWO.
Must be from TWO chart viewer
Doris on disruptive track
Storm Doris update
Regularly updated discussion forecasts.
14 day outlook
Cookies and privacy
We welcome your feedback and suggestions.