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Colder and unsettled spell – UPDATE 2

Posted Sat, 25 Apr 2015 17:05:25

Southern parts of the UK have been quite warm again this afternoon but the north is colder. During the next 24 hours the colder air pushes southwards across the rest of the country.

The weather details for the London Marathon taking place tomorrow have been difficult to pin down this year with uncertainty about the potential timing and intensity of rain. This afternoon’s GFS12z model run is forecasting  outbreaks of rain in the London area tomorrow morning but they aren’t particularly heavy – the chart below is for 12GMT. Keep an eye on the rainfall radar for the latest picture of what’s actually happening rather than forecast to happen.

12_24_precipratec

The early part of next week still looks cold with wintry showers in the north. The forecast minimum temperature for Monday morning have been jumping around quite a lot on successive computer models runs but it could be particularly cold with a widespread frost risk. Here’s the minimum temperature forecast from this afternoon’s GFS12z.

12_42_uk2mtmpmin

Longer term the GEFS6z ensemble model shows the unsettled picture continuing as we head into May and the Bank Holiday weekend. It also suggests temperatures are more likely to remain below average even in the south. I’m less confident about outlook for temperatures than I am about the generally unsettled theme, so this is something I’ll be keeping an eye on.

gefsens850london0

Summary

Unsettled and cool with a risk of nighttime frosts.

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brian.gaze 9 hours ago
The GFS6z again suggests very low temperatures tonight with a widespread frost. Definitely something for gardeners to be aware of.

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