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Wintry prospects next week

Posted Sat, 24 Jan 2015 17:52:43

Monday and Tuesday look set to bring quite benign weather from the west across the UK. It’s the middle of the next week when it begins to turn interesting and potentially quite wintry.

Recent GFS computer models runs show an active cold front sweeping south eastwards on Wednesday. The precipitation this brings is being modelled as rain initially, but possibly turning to sleet or snow on its back edge as the colder air moves in.

It’s worth keeping an eye on but the system looks like rattling through pretty quickly and I’d be surprised if it brings much snow. Temperatures will certainly take a tumble through!

The other thing to note is once the cold front clears showers are likely to become widespread and wintry. These could bring accumulating snow to higher ground in central and northern regions.

Here’s the latest GFS12z precipitation type forecast chart for 15GMT on Wednesday.

12_99_preciptype

Once we get back into the colder air the next question is how long does it stay with us? I’m not really sure. This morning’s ECM model run keeps a northerly flow over the UK well into the following week as do some of the GFS/GEFS 6z ensemble runs.

On the London GEFS chart below the forecast 850hPa temperature drops sharply on 28/29 Jan as the colder air mass moves over . A number of the individual runs then keep things cold with 850hPa temperature at or below -5C for several days.

gefsens850london0

So the cold air could hang around for a while bringing the risk of wintry showers or possibly longer spells of rain, sleet and snow. Some of the other computer models suggest a similar picture to a greater or less extent.

Nonetheless, it’s already looking quite marginal (probably the word of the winter to date) with snow more likely farther north and over higher ground. In many ways this winter is turning out to be a textbook example of what we should expect in the UK.

PS: The GEFS12z runs are still completing but on balance look set to favour the colder conditions continuing well into the first week of February.

Chart viewer

Your comments


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jamie.l.hamilton 47 seconds ago
thanks guys lets keep fingers crossed my children are so itching to build a snowman. bring on the beast from the east....

katiesigley 2 minutes ago
Paul, Where did u read that?

richbrown1978 3 minutes ago
Snow snow blizzards whiteouts snow drifts snow snow

paulmiller877 4 minutes ago
Vice, I love it too mate

katiesigley 7 minutes ago
Vice, I love it, as u have prob already guessed lol!!

paulmiller877 8 minutes ago
Just read one forecaster who says charts r showing cold signals for the next 3 to 4 wks and worst of winter to come for UK, I am sure Brian will update on this

nicholasjager18 11 minutes ago
Jamie...no I don't know if it will snow in Norfolk...sorry

vicetrooper 14 minutes ago
I am interested in the amount of people who like to see snow (me being one) how about a little poll, who loves it? And who hates it?

paulmiller877 20 minutes ago
Jamie, l live in Suffolk and we have not had serious snow for 2yrs . Brian, are there any signs please of easterly winds which means snow for Norfolk and suffolk

aryeh2 21 minutes ago
Hope we get snow in Newcastle, most of our snow comes from showers coming in off the north Sea, we're not as susceptible to weather from the Atlantic as it's weakened by the time it arrives

richbrown1978 24 minutes ago
One of the gfs charts showed a mass of cold air going past the top of Britain then dropping down and moving closer to the East Coast of the UK!! Feb 9th was the date I think.

katiesigley 25 minutes ago
Nichola, Def is unusual, dats wat I was Thinking def could well be a significant event!!

jamie.l.hamilton 26 minutes ago
does anybody know if it will snow in Norfolk?

richbrown1978 30 minutes ago
Met Office are perhaps trying to stop looking out of the window to make their forecasts. Almost unprecedented by them releasing weather warnings this far in advance. Cold weather alerts should be next.......

kevstigs 37 minutes ago
just to clear up people...... my last post was a friend trying to be funny, I too am a weather fan just like you's. so please ignore that one, thanks.

nicholasjager18 49 minutes ago
Who's looking forward to country file weather for the week ahead forecast...will the BBC downplay it and it turns out to be major snowfall or will they overegg it and it turns out to be nothing special ?

nicholasjager18 57 minutes ago
Katie, that's an unusual move from the met office to issue warnings, especially for snow, so early. They must think it could be quite significant! I've got everything crossed cuz where I live, snow can be marginal even during severe cold snaps!

katiesigley 1 hour ago
A NW flow is normally a gud flow for us in shropshire as snow showers often come through the Cheshire gap,fingers crossed!!

katiesigley 1 hour ago
Morning all, Met office just issued snow warnings for wed/thurs for North of country/ Scotland/ Ireland hoping they will be extended further south nearer da time!!

richbrown1978 1 hour ago
Just looked at the charts.....all want a cold spell for about a week. Looks more favourable for wintry precipitation for Hull and the East coast from Friday. Fingers crossed......

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