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Regularly updated news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder. Follow @TWOweather to keep up to date with Brian on Twitter.

It's all about the timing

Posted Thu, 19th January 2017 15:30

In my last update on Monday I talked about the chance of a significant change in the weather next week. Is this still looking likely?

Latest overview shows a change

On Monday the computer models were showing a transition to unsettled weather in all regions from 23rd January. Since then there has been a backtrack with the latest data showing dry and settled weather holding on until the 27th January. In other words high pressure is expected to have an influence on the UK's weather for an extra 4 days, keeping it drier and colder.

The London GEFS06z plot below showing 850hPa temperatures and rainfall illustrates this. The rain spikes start appearing around 27/01 (lower half) and 850hPa temperatures start rising a couple of days before (upper half) as high pressure slips away eastwards and the continental flow is lost.


GEFS06z 850hPa temperatures



The GEFS06z plot above shows 850hPa temperatures which are those found at about 1500m above sea level. The one below shows forecast temperatures we experience at the surface. The correlation with 850hPa temperatures isn't a straightforward one. In this instance we see it remaining chilly at the surface until about 27/01 but as the unsettled weather pushes in it turns significantly milder.   


GEFS06z 2m max temperatures


There is a caveat of course. The transition back to unsettled weather has already slipped by about 4 days and there's no reason why it couldn't be further delayed. High pressure has a tendency to hang around for longer than computer models suggest.   


More dry and frosty weather is expected in the next few days. Computer models show a transition back to unsettled weather taking place from the 27th January which is 4 days later than I suggested in may last update. There is still a chance if could be delayed further.  

PS: A few people have asked about the version of the iPhone app. I'm hoping it will be available from the App Store within the next week. 

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p.stanworth 21 hours ago
Warming up of the stratosphere May occur in the next couple of week and weaken the polar vortex but that does not nessarly mean cold weather, were just a small country and the chances are will be on the mild side of any blocking

p.stanworth 1 day ago
once the Atlantic breaks through it could be mild for months with only polar maritime incursion in the north

mrwhoosy 1 day ago
I've got to give it to you barrowice you do seem to have got things spot on. How do you know so much. What next winters predictions. I would love ay least a week or two of snow then a nice summer

antss1 1 day ago
Are these high pressures going to keep building till spring

antss1 1 day ago
No don,t want snow ,nice early spring

BarrowiceInfo 1 day ago
Look out for wide spread snow mid February. If my prediction is correct!!

BarrowiceInfo 1 day ago
As I mentioned last year, I think this Winter (in the South at least) will be a re-run of the winter of 2008/9 so far with the mostly frosty nights and sunny days, this has been true.

antss1 2 days ago
Why is this winter so different to the past few years , like why do high pressures keep building,and is it going to Carry on in to the spring

antss1 2 days ago
Another lovely cool crisp day in Norfolk, min 5 down allotment last night


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