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Early June looking reasonable

European heat for June 23rd?

Posted Mon, 23 May 2016 16:20

The meteorological summer begins on June 1st and there continues to be a lot of discussion about the potential for a spell of fine weather. What's the latest computer model data showing?

In general terms things aren't looking too bad during the first part of June. There isn't much sign of a heatwave but temperatures shouldn't be bad and there could be a reasonable amount of dry and fine weather.

Rainfall

The chart below shown forecast rainfall from each individual GEFS computer model run on Tuesday 7th June 18:00. A range of outcomes are offered as you'd expect at this range but in general it looks like this period should bring some dry and fine days. Most of the rain probably comes in the form of showers and this can mean large local variations.

GEFS rainfall stamps

 

Temperature

I've pasted in a similar GEFS chart showing maximum forecast temperatures from each individual model run on Tuesday 7th June. Temperatures look reasonable for the time of year with a number of runs showing values close to 21C (70F) but there are a few cooler and warmer options. These charts could of course be wrong but at this point there seems to be a low chance of hot weather.

GEFS temperature stamps

Summary

The prospects for the first week or two of June are reasonable. High pressure may well have the upper hand and this favours above average temperatures and below average rainfall. However, there isn't really a signal for it to become hot with the core of the heat staying to the south and east of the UK.

Taking a speculative view (in other words there's no evidence for this from the medium range computer model data I'm using here) I wouldn't be surprised if during the middle or second half of June a trigger low to the west of the UK pulls up some of the heat from southern Europe and sends our temperatures soaring for a while. Could the European heat be building by June 23rd?

Chart viewer

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