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Regularly updated thoughts from from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder. Follow @TWOweather to keep up to date with Brian on Twitter and login with your social media account below to post comments.
The good news is that next week is still on track to bring a lot of fine and sunny weather to the UK. The days should also become warm or very warm, but the longer nights could mean some chilly mornings.
The cause of the fine weather as usual is high pressure and for much of next week it looks like sitting over the UK. The GFS chart below shows forecast 850hPa (about 1500m above sea level) temperatures for Thursday 4th September with the +10C line covering much of central and eastern England. That’s a pretty warm air mass and at this time of year the temperatures down at the ground level probably into the mid 20sC.
There is still a chance of a Spanish plume developing and bringing even higher temperatures to the UK late next week. that is something to look out for.
Another possible outcome would be for high pressure to become centred to the west of the UK. This would lead to much cooler air moving south from the arctic towards the UK. This morning’s GFS6z run actually went for this solution, but at the moment it isn’t well supported by other computer models and its own GEFS ensemble suite. What that means is it could happen, but the odds are low.
The forecast chart below is from this morning’s GFS6z run for Monday 8th September and shows this cooler pattern with high pressure to the north and west.
In summary the weather outlook is a good or very good one with a lot of fine and warm weather next week. The positioning of the high pressure will largely determine how warm it could become, at the moment I’d go for warm or very warm rather than hot.
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