Regularly updated thoughts from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder. Follow @TWOweather to keep up to date with Brian on Twitter and login with your social media account below to post comments.
Drier weather will return during the next few days but are the remnants of Hurricane Joaquin set to cause problems this weekend? Possibly, in some parts of the country.
This morning’s GFS6z run shows cloud and rain affecting the west on Sunday. In central and eastern regions it remains dry throughout the weekend as high pressure remains firm over the continent holds blocking the progression of the wet weather. Eventually the rain brought by the remnants of Hurricane Joaquin slips away southwards with most places having a dry start to the new working week.
Is the GFS6z view likely to be right? This morning’s ECM0z model run shows a drier picture even in the west through the weekend. The GEFS6z postage stamp charts (below for Sunday 11th October, 18:00GMT) mostly show a dry picture in the east. In the west the prospects look a lot more uncertain with almost 50% of the individual runs showing a rain risk.
Very simply it means there’s a good chance of the east of Britain having a dry weekend. The west could also stay dry but here the chances of rain are higher, close to 50% according to today’s GEFS6z suite.
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