Regularly updated news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder. Follow @TWOweather to keep up to date with Brian on Twitter.
In my last update on Monday I talked about the chance of a significant change in the weather next week. Is this still looking likely?
On Monday the computer models were showing a transition to unsettled weather in all regions from 23rd January. Since then there has been a backtrack with the latest data showing dry and settled weather holding on until the 27th January. In other words high pressure is expected to have an influence on the UK's weather for an extra 4 days, keeping it drier and colder.
The London GEFS06z plot below showing 850hPa temperatures and rainfall illustrates this. The rain spikes start appearing around 27/01 (lower half) and 850hPa temperatures start rising a couple of days before (upper half) as high pressure slips away eastwards and the continental flow is lost.
The GEFS06z plot above shows 850hPa temperatures which are those found at about 1500m above sea level. The one below shows forecast temperatures we experience at the surface. The correlation with 850hPa temperatures isn't a straightforward one. In this instance we see it remaining chilly at the surface until about 27/01 but as the unsettled weather pushes in it turns significantly milder.
There is a caveat of course. The transition back to unsettled weather has already slipped by about 4 days and there's no reason why it couldn't be further delayed. High pressure has a tendency to hang around for longer than computer models suggest.
More dry and frosty weather is expected in the next few days. Computer models show a transition back to unsettled weather taking place from the 27th January which is 4 days later than I suggested in may last update. There is still a chance if could be delayed further.
PS: A few people have asked about the version of the iPhone app. I'm hoping it will be available from the App Store within the next week.
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