Regularly updated thoughts from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder. Follow @TWOweather to keep up to date with Brian on Twitter and login with your social media account below to post comments.
Temperatures will be dropping during the next few days and the picture is quite mixed. Showers or longer spells of rain are likely at times. Things could change as we head towards next weekend.
This mornings GEFS6z computer model run shows the chance of another Spanish Plume glancing the UK next weekend. At the moment it’s not looking as hot as the last one with 850hPa temperatures peaking close to 15C on 11th July as can be seen on the top half of the plot below.
Remember for a very approximate guide you can add 15C to these temperatures to see what’s likely down at ground level if the clouds hold back. So if it panned out like this temperatures in the south could be approaching 30C (86F). Not unusually hot but not too shabby!
The GFS6z operational run shows a very similar outcome to the most probable outcome shown by the GEFS. Below are the GFS6z maximum forecast temperatures for 18:00GMT, Saturday 11th July. Remember there is a tendency for these to understate the outcome by a couple of degrees if the synoptic pattern is forecast correctly.
Cooler air is likely to push south eastwards during the next few days bringing showery weather. The second half of the week may see high pressure building from the south west and slipping east into the continent. This has the potential to pull another pulse of very warm air from southern Europe northwards towards the UK. Outcome: it could become hot for a time next weekend with eastern regions most likely to catch the plume.
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