Regularly updated thoughts from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder. Follow @TWOweather to keep up to date with Brian on Twitter and login with your social media account below to post comments.
The next few days will bring mixed weather with showers or longer spells of rain at times. As we head into September there are signs of a change as pressure steadily rises from the west.
I don’t think there’s such a thing as a ‘banker’ when it comes to the UK’s weather but a dry spell in September is perhaps as close as we get to one. Anecdotally one of the things I’ve noticed in the last 25 years or so is the tendency for settled and quiet weather to develop during September and increasingly it has felt more like a summer month than an autumnal one. Will the pattern be repeated this year?
Possibly it will to an extent because high pressure is set to have more influence on our weather. However, it looks like setting up shop at least initially to the west of the UK rather than over the continent. This means we’ll be under a north or northwesterly flow which even at this time of year won’t be too warm. Sea surface temperatures south of Greenland are also below average causing the air to warm less as it heads towards the UK.
The pressure chart below from this morning’s GFS6z run 18:00GMT, Saturday 5th September illustrates the expected pattern.
Quite a lot of the medium range forecasting models go on to show high pressure continuing to rule the roost through the following week and perhaps becoming centred over the UK or to our east. If this happened it could turn warmer as well as stay mostly dry. That’s something to keep an eye on as we head through next week.
There are signs of high pressure bringing a more settled spell of weather as we head through the first week of September. However, I’m going to finish off by throwing in a caveat. In recent months the medium range computer models have pointed towards a more settled outlook on several occasions but then switched track as the forecast time approached. There’s a chance of that happening again!
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