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Umbrellas at the ready

Posted Fri, 23rd June 2017 16:05

Cooler air has returned and all of the UK can expect wet weather in the coming week. At times it could feel a tad autumnal.

Summer on hold

This morning's GEFS 06z model run paints a very mediocre picture for the rest of June and the early part of July. The next 16 days bring quite a lot of cool and wet weather, especially to northern regions. The London GEFS 06z plot below illustrates things. After a reasonably dry start the chance of showers or longer spells of rain increases and it could be particularly wet between June 27th and July 3rd. Thereafter the the chance of drier periods may increase.

Temperatures don't look great either. Early next week humid air may be pulled up from the south and that could lead to heavy showers and downpours. As we head through the week cooler air looks like spreading southeastwards across all regions. On the plot below 850hPa temperatures drop from about 10C to 4C next  week.

GEFS06z London

 

The GEFS plot above doesn't show it, but another point to note is it could become quite windy during the second half of the week. 

TL;DR

Unsettled weather looks nailed on next week with showers or longer spells of rain in all regions. Warm air early on brings a risk of downpours and thunderstorms but through the week it turns cooler. During the first week of July there are tentative signs of dry spells becoming more common in the south.

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