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Next plume next weekend?

Posted Sun, 05 Jul 2015 12:43:10

Temperatures will be dropping during the next few days and the picture is quite mixed. Showers or longer spells of rain are likely at times. Things could change as we head towards next weekend.

This mornings GEFS6z computer model run shows the chance of another Spanish Plume glancing the UK next weekend. At the moment it’s not looking as hot as the last one with 850hPa temperatures peaking close to 15C on 11th July as can be seen on the top half of the plot below.

gefsens850london0 (1)

Remember for a very approximate guide you can add 15C to these temperatures to see what’s likely down at ground level if the clouds hold back. So if it panned out like this temperatures in the south could be approaching 30C (86F). Not unusually hot but not too shabby!

The GFS6z operational run shows a very similar outcome to the most probable outcome shown by the GEFS. Below are the GFS6z maximum forecast temperatures for 18:00GMT, Saturday 11th July. Remember there is a tendency for these to understate the outcome by a couple of degrees if the synoptic pattern is forecast correctly.

06_156_uk2mtmp

Summary

Cooler air is likely to push south eastwards during the next few days bringing showery weather. The second half of the week may see high pressure building from the south west and slipping east into the continent. This has the potential to pull another pulse of very warm air from southern Europe northwards towards the UK. Outcome: it could become hot for a time next weekend with eastern regions most likely to catch the plume.

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Must be from TWO chart viewer

michaeljames 41 minutes ago
Cold,lashing rain & hailstones here nr Bolton...Horrible day.

brian.gaze 20 hours ago
That looks like the same comment and says 'could' which is the keyword.

vinceedwards 20 hours ago
That looks like a classic bit of 'taking out of context' CJO. Saying the record 'could go' is a whole lot different than 'probably' or 'will'. It could snow in July!

cjoentertainments 22 hours ago
http://katm.co.uk/record-breaking-heat-spell-ahead-with-britain-to-scorch-til-september/

brian.gaze 1 day ago
I've not seen a quote anywhere saying I reckon the record will be broken. I've said it could go if the UK taps into the continental heat which has built early this summer.

scottai123456 1 day ago
Brian, the Daily Mail are saying you reckon temps will pass 38c this summer. I tend not to believe them. Would you say that?

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