Regularly updated thoughts from from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder. Follow @TWOweather to keep up to date with Brian on Twitter and login with your social media account below to post comments.
Monday and Tuesday look set to bring quite benign weather from the west across the UK. It’s the middle of the next week when it begins to turn interesting and potentially quite wintry.
Recent GFS computer models runs show an active cold front sweeping south eastwards on Wednesday. The precipitation this brings is being modelled as rain initially, but possibly turning to sleet or snow on its back edge as the colder air moves in.
It’s worth keeping an eye on but the system looks like rattling through pretty quickly and I’d be surprised if it brings much snow. Temperatures will certainly take a tumble through!
The other thing to note is once the cold front clears showers are likely to become widespread and wintry. These could bring accumulating snow to higher ground in central and northern regions.
Here’s the latest GFS12z precipitation type forecast chart for 15GMT on Wednesday.
Once we get back into the colder air the next question is how long does it stay with us? I’m not really sure. This morning’s ECM model run keeps a northerly flow over the UK well into the following week as do some of the GFS/GEFS 6z ensemble runs.
On the London GEFS chart below the forecast 850hPa temperature drops sharply on 28/29 Jan as the colder air mass moves over . A number of the individual runs then keep things cold with 850hPa temperature at or below -5C for several days.
So the cold air could hang around for a while bringing the risk of wintry showers or possibly longer spells of rain, sleet and snow. Some of the other computer models suggest a similar picture to a greater or less extent.
Nonetheless, it’s already looking quite marginal (probably the word of the winter to date) with snow more likely farther north and over higher ground. In many ways this winter is turning out to be a textbook example of what we should expect in the UK.
PS: The GEFS12z runs are still completing but on balance look set to favour the colder conditions continuing well into the first week of February.
Sign in with your existing Facebook, Google or Twitter account to post comments and use 1-TWO.
Enable locations, daily e-mail, comments, image upload.
Dry with sunny spells (homepage)
10 day forecast
Regularly updated discussion forecasts.
14 day outlook
Cookies and privacy
We welcome your feedback and suggestions.