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More like July than September!

Posted Wed, 17 Sep 2014 16:59:32

We’re now well into the meteorological autumn and the equinox is next Tuesday, but the next few days wouldn’t look out of place in July. Low pressure to the south west is pulling very warm air up from southern Europe and this will bring some high temperatures during sunny spells. This afternoon’s GFS12z run has values of up to 26C (78F) south of London on Thursday  with hefty and possibly thundery showers breaking out from the south west.

Here’s the GFS12z temperature forecast chart for Thursday afternoon.

12_27_uk2mtmp

Friday looks very interesting too. Again very warm for the time of year, but there’s also expected to be a lot of energy and instability in the atmosphere which could bring thunderstorms. The forecast  CAPE and Lifted Index chart below is from today’s GFS12z run. The details will still change but southern areas under the orange shading and negative valued contours would be most likely to hear a few rumbles of thunder and catch a downpour that may lead to a lot of surface water on the roads.

Maximum temperatures on Friday in the south have the potential to reach 27C (81F) under the very warm air mass, but this will depend on how the cloud and showery rain develop through the day. This late in the year everything needs to fall into place nicely for high temperatures to be reached and a key  requirement is for the sun not to be obscured by cloud for too long!

12_51_ukcape

Things are set to change this weekend as the warmest air slips away and high pressure builds in from the west allowing cooler air to move southwards over the UK.  Saturday will probably still be very warm in the south but heavy showers are likely to break out.  On Saturday night the cooler air could lead to quite a widespread ground frost in Scotland and on Sunday maximum temperatures in the south are likely to be closer to a much more modest 20C (68F).

Finally the comments section below my post has been upgraded today, so you should now find logging in with your Facebook, Twitter or Google account and posting comments even easier than before.

Chart viewer

Your comments and questions

terry.atkinson 2 hours ago
Reports in the press are suggesting that if the eruption in iceland occurs then the uk will be plunged into a deep freeze this winter. How would this happen and is the eruption in iceland and winter 2010 linked

vicki.selman1973 3 hours ago

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