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Christmas day and beyond – UPDATE 2

Posted Thu, 18 Dec 2014 19:37:46

This morning I thought there was a reasonable chance of cross model agreement developing during the course of the day with the GEFS ensemble set increasingly pointing towards a cold spell in the post Christmas period. That’s not quite how things have worked out today.

The GFS and GFSP model runs have generally pointed to a shorter and less potent cold snap. In the case of the latest GFS run things remain very mild for much of the country on Christmas Day and beyond.

Tonight’s ECM run shows a short lived colder incursion on Christmas and Boxing day with the chance of a few wintry showers in the north. It then turns milder but ends with high pressure over Greenland. Although the UK remains relatively mild at the end of the run on December 28th, it is the type of pattern which could lead to a cold spell a few days later on.

Tonight’s GEFS runs complete the mixed picture as the plot plot below for London and the south east shows. During the Christmas period most of the runs are now leaning towards quite a short cold snap (if there is to be one at all), but there is still a lot of uncertainty with some favouring a more potent wintry spell.

The snow row numbers are lower than on this morning’s run too, although of course cold and dry is a possible outcome.

gefsens850london0 (1)

In summary there remains a decent chance of a short cold snap and the possibility of a longer one. Nonetheless, on balance today the computer models are suggesting a less cold and wintry picture through the rest of December than they were at this time yesterday.

Christmas Day itself looks green for most of us. The best chance of a white Christmas is in the north where there could be wintry showers.

Chart viewer 

Your comments

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lorenzosardo 1 minute ago
Snow all the way I do not believe in these old type model I believe buzz he is the one we should believe

p.stanworth 12 minutes ago
Said the ecm would go milder later,no chance of a cold spell now for a while

Graham P Jessup 23 minutes ago
Looks stormy after xmas as cold air from greenland block meets warm air from south forming a breakaway low which couid realy deepen remember the word bomb tracks east across scotland bringing in all that cold air and snow we have all been waitingfor

lawrence.jay1209 35 minutes ago
Hope the cold comes!!

glynn 41 minutes ago
At the mo the GFS, GEFS and ECM are all showing a pretty mild outlook. I can't see there being any snow in the next 3 weeks, but things could change.

maxsmithy76 1 hour ago
Well look at netweather a snow forecast map then John, I believe they say the same unbiased model opinions as this site

ohamybaby 2 hours ago
Any updates Brian

p.stanworth 2 hours ago
I will be so happy if the cold does come

cloakflame9835 2 hours ago
Cold is coming.......

p.stanworth 2 hours ago
Only the ecm models shows slight cold weather past Xmas,this will change to milder weather in the coming days.I have this feeling based on past dissapoments

lorenzosardo 2 hours ago
No mild weather from my point of view

p.stanworth 3 hours ago
Turning very mild new year southly winds no cold seen this set up in the mid 90s.

lorenzosardo 3 hours ago
snow all the way i say

johnhas109 4 hours ago
Max I base this on the fact that anything that Exacta Weather say we will not get or recieve the opposite, Exacta said exactly the same last Winter ,what did we get ?? Mild,wet and windy. Believe me it won't happen !!!

glynn 7 hours ago
6z stopped at 192 hours, shame as chart looked interesting at that point with cold air over the country.

jimjones191419 7 hours ago
Just found out we closer to sun in winter. Wat a wally I am. Katie. Know one seems t know this time around. But anytime january/ feb is a fair bet.

katiesigley 7 hours ago
So do we tink their is gunna b any proper cold anytime soon?

jimjones191419 7 hours ago
Apparently there's wobbles in earths tilt. Sometimes infavour of colder/ milder winters. Also variations in orbit.

jimjones191419 7 hours ago
The most powerful force of the change of season will bring cold weather. Jet stream weak.Perfect setup. The sun sinkin south pulls polar air down. If we tilted away from the sun agen it be mega cold. Does anyone know if earth tilted away this year?

scobyrama 7 hours ago
Huge difference between the gfs model and the European model

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