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High pressure to return

Posted Tue, 06 Dec 2016 09:45

The next few days will bring milder and more changeable conditions than we've had recently as a southwesterly flow develops across the UK. By the start of next week high pressure may become more influential once again but will it be cold or mild?

Where's that High pressure going?

The medium range computer models have been showing two basic scenarios for the middle of December and beyond:

1) A changeable west to southwesterly flow persists. This keeps it mild and all regions have rain at times but also drier periods

2) High pressure builds back and settled conditions return. This outcome brings a much greater likelihood of cold weather but it doesn't guarantee it.

In recent days I thought the balance had tipped just in favour of option 1, but the latest computer model output casts doubt on that. The overnight GFS00z run shows high pressure building over the continent by +192 hours. Later in the week it becomes centred over the UK with colder conditions returning.

 

The ECM00z shows a similar set-up at +192 hours but it looks potentially cloudier and less cold, although by +240 hours pressure is rising across the UK.

 

ECM00z

 

The GEFS00z ensemble at +240 hours shows quite a lot of support for high pressure to be centred close to the UK. A few of the perturbations have the high pressure centred farther northwest. This would allow much colder air (and possibly wintry showers) to start being drawn towards the UK from the north or east. However, most of the perturbations don't so show this  so probability of this outcome is quite low.

 

GEFS00z

TL;DR

Developments next week and beyond remain uncertain. The latest computer model runs show a good chance of high pressure bringing settled weather but a changeable and wetter outcome is still possible. If high pressure returns temperatures are likely to fall again, particularly in the south east where it could become quite raw.  

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sheila 2 days ago
Hope you're right about seeing some snow - this foggy damp weather is really depressing - even our sheep look glum!!

superfluffy 2 days ago
this year is not like the last 3 winters watched many sites of weather this year they finding it hard to work out what its going to happen . i think we will see snow at some cold weather this winter tho :)

colinagreenfield76 2 days ago
Must be painful, all this sitting on the fence lol , but the weather I understand is very hard to predict from 1 day to the next

superfluffy 2 days ago
i am loving how this winter is taking place not sure on whats going on next . so really hoping that portsmouth will see some snow this winter been few years without it . so hope its the colder outcome but we will see :)

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