Since last summer there have been frequent periods of unsettled weather. In fact, data from the Met Office shows that England has experienced its wettest 18 months since records began in 1836. The jet stream has often tracked further south than is typical, deepening areas of low pressure and directing them towards the UK.
However, there are tentative indications of a transition to a more settled period of weather during the middle of April. Expected changes to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may also have an impact heading through the rest of the year, although correlations with the UK's weather are weak, particularly during the summer months.
Despite the very wet conditions there has only been one month out of the last thirty one, December 2023 which recorded a Central England Temperature (CET) below the 1961-90 average. Therefore, the statistics taken on their own suggest the chance of a cool summer is low.
Seasonal models are run by a number of national forecasting systems. They provide indications of global trends for the coming months, but their skill level (accuracy) for the UK is still low. Nonetheless, they are a good starting point when considering the prospects.
The table below summarises the output from a number of the main seasonal models. They generally update monthly, so significant changes are possible before the meteorological summer begins.
The notable things are:
i) All of the models favour above average temperatures in most of the UK when taken over June, July and August as a whole
ii) The rain signal is very mixed and uncertain
When considering a three month period it is important to realise the anomalies may not provide the complete picture. For example, very wet periods could offset very dry ones, leading to average amounts of rain. However, this may be less the case for temperatures because as already noted, cool months have been the exception rather than the norm in recent years.
The state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant impact on temperature and rainfall patterns around the globe. Nonetheless its link to the UK summer is weak.
Latest forecasts suggest an 83% chance of a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral before the start of the summer. There is a 62% chance of La Niña developing through June to August. Although the link between La Niña and the UK's summer weather isn't considered strong, it could have some indirect impacts. For example, it may lead to temporarily lower global temperatures. It could also encourage an active Atlantic Hurricane season.
Colorado State University's (CSU) prediction is for an "extremely active" hurricane season in 2024. They are suggesting that the combination of La Niña and an anomalously warm Atlantic Ocean will lead to the most active season since they started making forecasts in 1995. However, as with all forecasts there is a significant degree of uncertainty.
Accuweather is also predicting the possibility of a "super-charged" hurricane season and even suggests that forecasters may run out of names for storms.
Would a very active Atlantic hurricane season lead to a washout summer in the UK? Not necessarily. It is possible that ex-hurricanes in the North Atlantic could increase the chance of blocking areas of high pressure developing over Europe. The combination could increase the chance of periods of very hot weather affecting the UK and other parts of western Europe.
The anomalously warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in much of the Atlantic also support the idea of higher than normal temperatures in the UK.
In recent decades periods of extreme heat have become more frequent in the UK. Summer 1976 is often used as a benchmark because the dry and hot weather continued for such a long time. However, the highest temperature recorded then, 35.9C in Cheltenham on 3rd July, has been surpassed easily a number of times in recent years. In fact, it was beaten by a huge 4.4C in 2022 when 40C was exceeded for the first time on record in the UK.
Maximum temperatures for recent years are listed below:
2023: 33.2C, 9th September, Kew Gardens
2022: 40.3C, 19th July, Coningsby, Lincolnshire
2021: 32.2C, 21st July, Heathrow, Middlesex
2020: 37.8C, 31st July, Heathrow, Middlesex
2019: 38.7C, 25th July, Cambridge Botanical Gardens
2018: 35.3C, 26th July, Faversham, Kent
2017: 34.5C, 21st June, Heathrow, Middlesex
2016: 34.4C, 13th September, Gravesend, Kent (Note: This was in the meteorological autumn)
2015: 36.7C, 1st July, Heathrow, Middlesex
The last time 30C wasn't reached in the UK was in 1993. In that year the top temperature recorded was 29.7C in East Bergholt, Suffolk. In more recent times, 2007 and 2008 brought maximums of 30.1C and 30.2C respectively.
Recent climatology continues to favour above average temperatures and suggests an increased chance, relative to the norm, of hot spells in the summer months.
1) Seasonal models forecast above average temperatures over the June, July and August period as a whole
2) A transition to La Niña conditions suggests temporarily lower global temperatures
3) Forecasts for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season indicate high activity
4) Recent climatology continues to favour warm weather
Therefore, at this stage a warmer than average summer looks likely. The signal for rain amounts is much less clear. On balance, a very warm summer with an increased chance of stormy interludes is favoured.
An update will be issued in mid-May, with the final forecast being made available for the start of the meteorological summer on 1st June.
You are subscribed to push notifications.
You are not subscribed.
Click the Notify Me! button and then Allow. You can stop them at any time.
Unsettled weather for the early May bank holiday?
Hot and thundery summer?
Will the relentless rain relent for Easter?
Cheltenham Festival weather
A close to average spring?
Daily weather by email
14 day outlook
Monthly outlook
Seasonal outlook
Christmas weather
See the Model inventory for the full list of model charts and data