August bank holiday weather - a wet weekend?

The last bank holiday before Christmas falls on Monday 31st August. After a record-breaking season, can we expect the meteorological summer's swan song to be one to remember, or will unsettled conditions dominate?

August has been a very warm month

The Central England Temperature (CET) to 25th August is 18.6C, which is 2.8C above the 1961-90 norm. July was 19.5C, which is 3.5C above, and June was 17.4C, 3.3C above. Summer 2026 is certainly smashing record, and then some! 

However, conditions have been more mixed recently, with rain in parts of the UK. In the short term, low pressure will dominate proceedings and much of the southern half of the UK could see its first significant rain for a long time. Will the unsettled conditions continue through the bank holiday weekend?

Unsettled weekend expected

Although there are differences in the details between the forecast models, the general picture is an unsettled one. Therefore, all regions can expect showers or longer spells of rain at times.

The ECMWF chart shows low pressure close to the UK on Sunday, 30th August. It's bringing showers or longer spells of rain to much of the UK. The wettest conditions are focused on the north and west, with the driest in the south and east. This general pattern persists through the three day period, but of course there are day to day variations. 

With the possibility of cloud and rain, and a westerly flow, temperatures will be pegged back. The chart above shows forecast values for Sunday afternoon. The highest values are in central and eastern England, reaching 23C. It's cooler elsewhere, particularly in the north and west.

Another point of note is the potential for it to be windy at times. For example, the ECMWF chart below shows wind gusts of 35mph to 45mph across much of the UK on the afternoon of bank holiday Monday. That's enough to cause problems for people pitching tents at festivals or hoping to have barbecues.

Bank holiday looks mixed

Although the details are still firming up, the late August bank holiday weekend is looking very mixed. That said, a few of the models show high pressure having at least a little influence in the south, so it's still possible there could be a reasonable amount of weather.

Nonetheless, after such a remarkable season, it looks as though the meteorological summer will finish in a more traditional vein. Typically, there are indications of more settled and warmer conditions returning in the longer term.