A first look at spring 2026 Running from the start of March to the close of May, meteorological spring is a season of two halves. The early phase is notorious for 'wintry' surprises, with March frequently outperforming December for snowfall and April remaining prone to significant cold snaps, such as the anomalous snows of late April 1981. However, the narrative usually shifts gears by May, as the polar maritime air gives way to more settled, continental plumes that can bring the first hot spells of the year. Will we see another fine and dry spring like in 2025? By Brian Gaze9th February 2026 TL;DR: Early signals for Spring 2026 point towards a milder than average season across the UK. However, a regional split in rainfall is indicated: the north and west are currently favoured for wetter conditions, whereas the south and east may see a drier, more settled trend. While some speculative reports highlight stratospheric volatility, a major SSW is not expected imminently, though the easterly QBO and potential for an early 'Final Warming' keep the risk of cold in play for March. The meteorological winter still has a few weeks to run. It has been a strange season so far, with a mostly mild December finishing with a colder spell. Wintry conditions developed in early January for a time, leading to significant snowfalls in parts of northeastern Britain. However, the focus then shifted to heavy rain and flooding as a cold block built to the northeast of the UK, preventing the eastward progression of weather fronts. While colder air filtered into northeastern Britain at times, temperatures in other areas were often close to or even slightly above the norm. February started with similar conditions, but the trend has been for milder air to push northwards, reducing the potential for snow even in the north. Computer models are signalling the likelihood of a brief colder snap in mid-February, but milder and unsettled conditions are expected to return quickly. Do these winter patterns have implications for spring? Past weather isn't necessarily indicative of future conditions, but recent climatology is a key factor considered in the long-range forecasts issued by The Weather Outlook. Seasonal model forecasts Publicly available data from most of the seasonal models now covers the three month spring period. Model Temperature Precipitation UK Met Office GloSea (UK) M/A/M Above average Above average in the north Meteo France (France) M/A/M Above average No bias ECMWF M/A/M Mostly above average Mostly below average DWD (Germany) M/A/M Above average Mostly below average CMCC M/A/M Above average Above average in Scotland JMA (Japan) M/A/M Mostly above average Mostly above average C3S multi system (Combi) M/A/M Above average No bias CFS v2 (USA) M/A/M Above average Above average in the west and north west M/A/M = March, April, May The Climate Forecast System v2 is available on TWO. View the latest CFS v2 charts. The signal from these models is for a milder than average spring across the country. That said, seasonal models usually point towards above average temperatures in the UK, which fits in with high sea surface temperatures, recent climatology and trends over the last few decades. The precipitation outlook is generally more nuanced and that is the case here. While southern and eastern parts of England may have an above average chance of a drier, more settled season, the north and west are more likely to be wetter than the norm. This would potentially suggest the jet stream returning to a more typical position and shape across the North Atlantic than has been the case for much of the winter. Other signals and context To provide context for the upcoming season, the last three years have shown remarkable variation in spring weather across the UK: Spring 2025: Provisionally the warmest and sunniest on record. Temperatures were 1.44°C above the 1991–2020 average, while rainfall was just 56% of the norm. The most significant temperature anomalies occurred in the north and west, while the driest conditions were focused in the south and east. Spring 2024: Exceptionally wet but mild. The mean temperature was 9.37°C (1.3°C above average), but frequent Atlantic systems brought 301.7mm of rain, 132% of the seasonal average. Spring 2023: A largely typical season. The mean temperature of 8.4°C and rainfall total of 241mm were both close to the long-term norm, finishing at 0.3°C and 106% above average respectively. The Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) has often been weaker than average this winter. Every spring there is a 'Final Warming', when it naturally breaks down for the summer, before typically returning in early September. An early breakdown (March) often correlates with high pressure blocking over the Atlantic or Scandinavia, potentially leading to a cold, dry start to spring. Conversely, a late breakdown (April/May) can allow the jet stream to remain more active and 'westerly' often leading to a wetter transition. In addition, the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) is in an easterly phase, and although it's impact in spring is less pronounced than in winter, it can still promote high pressure blocking. Summary The computer models are suggesting: 1. Over the three-month period temperatures are more likely to be above average than below, but the potential for cold snaps early in the season is relatively high. 2. Wetter than average conditions are more likely in the north and west, with drier than average conditions in the south and east. The TWO seasonal forecast will be updated to cover March, April and May on February 28th.