Bonfire Night 2025 - Mild and Unsettled Weather Looks Most Likely Forget a cold, crisp Bonfire Night. The latest computer models strongly suggest an unsettled, mild and unsettled pattern will persist through the period, increasing the risk of rain and blustery conditions for fireworks displays. By Brian Gaze31st October 2025 A Damp Bonfire Night? Bonfire Night 2025: Wet, Windy, and Mild? Computer models currently suggest that unsettled weather will continue through the Bonfire Night period, covering the days immediately before and after 5th November when many fireworks events take place. This brings a risk of wet and windy conditions, at least in parts of the UK. The wettest weather is most likely in northern and western areas, where fronts and low pressure systems moving in from the Atlantic are expected to have the greatest impact. However, rain and strong winds are possible anywhere in the country during the period. With winds often coming from the west or southwest, it isn’t expected to be cold. In fact, there is potential for very mild weather at times, with some computer models showing temperatures reaching the mid-teens Celsius. The charts below are for illustrative purposes only, as it remains too early to be confident about the exact details for 5th November. They show a consistent general picture from several models (ECMWF, UK Met Global, GEM, and GFS) for midday on Bonfire Night. Critically, the general consensus across all models (ECMWF, UK Met Global, GEM, and GFS) is a consistent picture: low pressure will be centred to the west of the UK, ensuring associated weather fronts push cloud and rain northeastwards across the country. ECMWF chart for midday 5th November showing pressure/rain UK Met Global chart for midday 5th November showing pressure/rain GEM chart for midday 5th November showing pressure/rain GFS chart for midday 5th November showing pressure/rain Outlook: The Verdict for Bonfire Night At the moment there is good agreement between computer models that the Bonfire Night period will coincide with changeable or unsettled weather. Therefore, there is a risk of rain in many areas, although it is likely to feel mild for the time of the year. This mildness is a direct result of the persistent west to southwesterly flow and jet stream profile. The combination of breezy conditions and temperatures possibly reaching the mid-teens Celsius suggests that the weather could present issues for fireworks in parts of the UK, but winter woolies aren't likely to be at the top of the requirements list this year.