Mild and wet winter favoured?

The winter 2024-25 forecast covering December, January and February has been issued. In much of the UK, the most likely cause of high impact weather may be wind and rain rather than ice and snow.

The UK seasonal forecast headline is for winter 2024-25 to be milder and wetter than average over the three month period.

The chance of very windy and wet periods is elevated. The chance of cold conditions in the three months is considered the highest in December and the lowest in January. However, northerly spells during the autumn months seem to have been more potent than in many recent years. Therefore, any northerly outbreaks which developed could produce colder conditions than they have in recent years, and possibly bring a more widespread risk of snow.

Forecast considerations

The forecast was produced by looking at a number of factors, including:

• Seasonal forecast models
• Persistence patterns during recent seasons and historical analogues
• ENSO conditions
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
• Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)
• Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
• Solar activity
• Autumnal weather patterns and the development of snow cover in Siberia

The Weather Analogue Index (WAI) which was tracked through the autumn months.

Following the trend of recent years?

Confidence in seasonal forecasts for the UK remains low and winter 2024-25 is no exception. However, seasonal models and recent climatology firmly suggest a milder than average season. Since the start of 2022, only two months have been colder than the 1961-90 Central England Temperature (CET). Of the two, December 2022 brought a significant cold period with snow even in parts of southern Britain. The other was June 2024, which was only 0.1C below the CET. Therefore, the chance of two out of three months being colder than the norm is very low if recent climatology provides a guide.

Background signals are mixed. The neutral ENSO doesn't offer strong pointers. The QBO is expected to remain in a westerly phase, which is linked to a stronger Atlantic flow. The IOD entered a positive phase in 2023 but it has weakened through 2024 and it may be more supportive of colder periods. 

The WAI has increasingly favoured predominantly above average temperatures. Notably, the abysmally mild winters of 1988 and 2015 are both in the top 3 matches at the time of publication (for more detail, see the WAI page).

In conclusion, although a milder than average winter is forecast, other outcomes are of course still possible.

TWO winter 2024-25 forecast

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