A close to average spring?

The meteorological spring runs from March 1st to May 31st. Early in the season cold periods are relatively frequent and March often brings more snow than December. April can also bring big contrasts, but very warm or even hot spells are possible in May.

The winter was mild and wet. In fact, February was one of the warmest on record, with the Central England Temperature (CET) average finishing at 7.8°C. The rain seemed endless and there were many named storms during the autumn and winter seasons. The first was Agnes which was named on 25th September 2023, with the last being Jocelyn on 22nd January 2024. 

Can we expect further named storms during the meteorological spring or will calmer conditions prevail? The TWO seasonal headline is for a slightly warmer and slightly drier than average season.

Spring 2024 outlook

As ever it should be noted that the skill level (accuracy) for long range weather forecasts remains low in the UK. Due to being positioned on the edge of a continental landmass, a number of air masses often affects the weather patterns with the borders between them being close to the UK.

This year seasonal computer models and recent climatology are favouring a warmer than average season. The signal for this is relatively strong in the context of the above. The signal for precipitation amounts is less clear, but on balance, close to average levels are favoured.

In the short term unsettled and chilly weather is expected. However, during the second week of March there are indications of high pressure exerting more influence. The second half of the month could see changeable weather returning. 

In the longer term, the forecast favours a wetter April and a drier May. Through the two months the expectation is that temperatures will be above the average. 

Seasonal summary

The meteorological spring has started with rather cold and unsettled weather. However, the expectation is that the chilly start is likely to be more than offset by above average temperatures further down the line. The precipitation signal is weak, but close to average is considered the most likely scenario.

Read the TWO seasonal forecast in full.

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