Will summer 2026 break records again?

Summer 2025 was the warmest on record in the UK, with a mean temperature of 16.10°C, 1.51°C above the 1991–2020 average. It was also a relatively dry and bright season; provisional totals show 212.1 mm of rainfall (84% of the long term average) and 556.3 hours of sunshine (110% of the average). Will summer 2026 follow a similar pattern?

While many people consider the spring equinox (20th March this year) and the summer solstice (21st June) as the official starts of their respective seasons, meteorologists measure things differently. For the purposes of this outlook we will use the meteorological calendar, where summer runs from 1st June to 31st August. 

How is the long range forecast made?

When assessing long-term weather prospects, meteorologists rely on a variety of inputs. These include seasonal computer models and "analogues", a method of comparing current atmospheric conditions with similar setups from past years.

We also look at teleconnections, which describe how persistent weather patterns in one part of the world can influence weather elsewhere. While these global links to the UK's weather are generally weaker during the summer, they remain an important piece of the puzzle for The Weather Outlook's seasonal forecasts. Specifically, this discussion factors in the current ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) outlook, alongside North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs).

Seasonal model forecasts

Many seasonal models cover the three month summer period. Key ones are listed in the table below, summarising their temperature and precipitation forecasts for the United Kingdom.

M/A/M = March, April, May

Source: Copernicus

The Climate Forecast System v2 is available on TWO. View the latest CFS v2 charts.

ENSO outlook

The state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a significant impact on temperature and rainfall patterns around the globe, but its link to the UK summer is weak.

A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favoured through May-July 2026 (55% chance).

In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.

Source: National Weather Service

There is evidence suggesting that a developing or active El Niño is associated with warmer and drier UK summers, particularly in southern and central regions. During these periods the Atlantic jet stream can weaken or shift, allowing high pressure systems, which bring settled weather, to become dominant.

However, the strength of the event matters. While a typical El Niño leans towards drier conditions, exceptionally strong events can disrupt the jet stream more unpredictably, potentially leading to cooler and wetter summers. Therefore, while this year's expected ENSO conditions generally point towards a drier and warmer summer, the possibility of a strong El Niño means the opposite outcome cannot be ruled out. 

A near average hurricane season?

Early forecasts suggest that this year's Atlantic hurricane activity will be close to the 30 year average. This is largely due to the expected development of El Niño.

During an El Niño phase strong westerly winds develop high in the atmosphere over the Atlantic Basin. This wind shear acts like a giant fan, effectively disrupting developing tropical storms and preventing many from strengthening into major hurricanes.

How does this affect the UK's summer weather? The most significant impacts from the Atlantic hurricane season are typically felt in August, but the relationship is complex. As ex-hurricanes track across the North Atlantic they can interact with the jet stream to create either a 'blocked' pattern (bringing prolonged, settled spells) or a 'mobile' one (bringing changeable, wet weather). However, if the hurricane season turns out to be close to average, its overall influence on the UK's summer is likely to remain fairly neutral. 

Sea Surface Temperatures

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are currently above average across much of the North Atlantic and in the waters surrounding the UK. This tends to favour higher air temperatures, particularly when winds draw in air from these relatively warm seas. It can also support the development and persistence of high-pressure systems, which are often associated with settled and warm conditions.

However, the relationship is not straightforward. Warmer seas can also increase the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, which at times may lead to heavier showers or thunderstorms if conditions become unstable. Therefore, while the current SST pattern tilts the balance towards a warmer summer, it does not preclude unsettled spells. 

A pattern of ongoing warmth

Recent months have consistently trended warmer than average. The table below highlights the monthly temperature anomalies from September 2025 through February 2026. These figures are calculated by comparing data from our internal tracker with the Met Office's Central England Temperature (CET) series. (Please note that while our tracker closely mirrors the CET, it is not an exact replica).

To help you read the data at a glance, the table is colour coded: red indicates above average temperatures, green marks average, and blue shows below average. We have measured these recent values against both the standard 30 year CET baselines and the extensive historical dataset dating back to 1659.

Source: TWO tracker

Weather analogues

Another forecasting tool is the weather analogue method, which involves comparing current atmospheric patterns with historical data. On The Weather Outlook (TWO) our Weather Analogue Index (WAI) is updated daily. It measures current weather setups across the Northern Hemisphere against the corresponding period for every year dating back to 1948.

To smooth out daily volatility and identify broader trends, we average this data over extended periods, such as a 30 day window. At the time of publication the top 10 best historical matches from our 30 day tracker are shown in the table below. 

(Note: The anomalies are derived from data provided by the UK Met Office. For more information on the specific seasons listed above, check out the UK Met Office Weather and Climate summaries.)

Our current analogue set is remarkable. With the single exception of 1992, the top 10 best matches have all occurred since 2008. Objectively, this provides a very strong signal for above average temperatures over the summer as a whole, though it does not rule out cooler spells.

Looking at our top three matches both 2025 and 2022 were drier than average, while 2024 saw near average rainfall. Therefore, while the analogue signal strongly favours a warmer summer, the outlook for precipitation is much less certain, leaning only slightly towards drier conditions.

Summary

Based on the current computer models and analogue data, here is the overview for summer 2026:

1. Temperatures: Despite the inherent limitations of long range forecasting there is a strong signal that temperatures over the three-month period will be above average.

2. Precipitation: As is typical for long-range outlooks the rainfall signal is much weaker. However, we are tentatively favouring a drier-than-average summer over a near-normal or wet one.

Finally, here are the caveats:

i) Data: this is primarily an analysis of the current data. 

ii) Forecasting limits: skill levels for long-range forecasting in the UK remain low. In our view, anyone claiming otherwise is likely staring into a crystal ball.

iii) Regional variations across the UK are often highly significant, meaning local experiences may differ notably from the broader national average.

The full summer forecast will be issued on 31st May.