Easter weather outlook

March has been a warmer than average month overall, but colder conditions have developed at times. Wintry showers have been fairly widespread in recent days, with even parts of the south seeing transient flakes of snow. However, medium range models have been indicating that high pressure will begin to have more influence as the Easter weekend approaches. How is it now looking?

With just over a week to go computer models are suggesting a drier and more settled spell in the immediate run up to Easter as high pressure builds. However, things could change again in time for Good Friday as pressure potentially begins to fall, opening the door to more changeable Atlantic weather, particularly for northern and western areas. Temperature prospects also remain somewhat uncertain.

Changeable Easter period?

At this stage, computer models have not decisively determined the broadscale pattern for Easter. Because the UK sits on the boundary between competing air masses, small changes can have a big impact on our weather.

Firstly, the Met Office Global update shows low pressure dominant to the north. This would steer a moist westerly flow across the UK, bringing rain and brisk winds to the north and west, while the south remains more sheltered but potentially damp at times.

A starkly different scenario is shown by the ECMWF model (below). It suggests high pressure anchoring over Scandinavia, which would "block" the Atlantic and draw in a chilly easterly flow. Under this setup most of the UK would stay dry, but temperatures would struggle, particularly along North Sea coasts.

The likelihood of it being wet

The graphic below shows the percentage chance of rain at six hour intervals in Birmingham, starting on Good Friday and ending on Bank Holiday Monday.

The light grey shading indicates dry conditions, while the percentage risk of precipitation fluctuates between 19% and 61%. Darker grey indicates light rain or drizzle, with purple, blue and yellow highlighting progressively heavier outbreaks.

Based on this data a completely dry Easter period in the Midlands appears unlikely. Also, there is a regional divide to consider: the south east shows a stronger signal for dry weather, though it carries a slightly higher risk of isolated heavy bursts if warmer air encroaches from the south. Conversely, in the north west the probability of rain is significantly higher throughout the weekend.

Temperature trends

The "Box and Whisker" chart below shows a probabilistic interpretation of the temperature outlook from now through to Friday 10th April. It uses the ECMWF IFS ensemble, which consists of 50 individual model runs. Each run starts with slightly different atmospheric conditions, helping us quantify the uncertainty that is naturally present in medium range forecasting.

As we head toward the Easter weekend (starting Good Friday, April 3rd), the "boxes" on the chart begin to climb. This indicates that despite the increasing spread in possible outcomes, there is a relatively high degree of confidence that a warming trend will develop compared to the recent colder conditions. Most scenarios suggest a return to seasonal averages.

In practical terms this means afternoon highs are most likely to sit between 11°C and 15°C. The south east could well be a little warmer, while the north west may be a few degrees cooler under more persistent cloud and breeze.

A mixed Easter period

In summary, the Easter period is shaping up to be quite mixed. While a total washout is not currently forecast, a completely dry and warm holiday weekend is unlikely. There is a smaller possibility of the weather turning mostly dry but rather cold.