Winter 2025-26 weather outlook Will we see a "proper" winter this year? After a series of mostly mild seasons the key question on everyone's mind is whether this trend will continue. As the 2025-2026 winter looms, this updated article breaks down the crucial factors that determine the UK's weather fate, offering a glimpse into what to expect in December, January and February. By Brian Gaze24th November 2025 A frozen Grand Union Canal As ever, it is important to remember that seasonal forecasting in the UK remains extremely challenging. The UK's location means that small changes on a global scale can have a very big impact on our weather. UK winters from 2008 to 2024 The list below shows temperature anomalies for UK winters since 2008-09. It's important to note that the last significantly colder than average winter was 2010-11. In the UK, there's a historical tendency for cold winters to occur in small clusters, with the most recent being a period from roughly 2008 to 2013. Before that, a notable cluster of colder winters occurred between 1978 and 1987, with only isolated cold seasons in the interim period. This pattern of warmer periods punctuated by brief cold clusters highlights the challenge of long range forecasting. 2008-09Colder than average. The UK mean temperature for the winter was 3.2°C, which is 0.5°C below average. 2009-10Much colder than average. The UK mean temperature for the winter was 1.6°C, which is 2.1°C below average. In many parts of the UK this was the coldest winter since 1978/79. 2010-11Colder than average. The UK mean temperature for the winter was 2.4°C, which is 1.3°C below average. 2011-12Milder than average. The UK mean temperature for the winter was 4.5°C, which is 0.8°C above average. 2012-13Slightly colder than average. The mean temperature over the UK for winter was 3.3°C, which is 0.4°C below average. 2013-14Much milder than average. The UK mean winter temperature was 5.2°C, which is 1.5°C above the average. 2014-15Close to average. The UK mean winter temperature was 3.9°C, which is 0.2°C above the average. 2015-16 Very mild. The third warmest in the series from 1910. The UK mean temperature was 5.5°C, which is 1.8°C above the average. 2016-17 Very mild. The UK mean temperature was 5.0°C, which is 1.3C above the average. 2017-18 Close to average. The UK mean temperature was 3.6°C, which is 0.2°C below average. 2018-19 Much milder than average. The UK mean temperature was 5.2°C, which is 1.4°C above average. 2019-20 Much milder than average. The UK mean temperature was 5.3°C, which is 1.5°C above average. 2020-21 Close to average. The UK mean temperature was 3.5°C, which is 0.2°C below average. 2021-22 Milder than average. The UK mean temperature was 5.2°C, which is 1.1°C above average. 2022-23 Close to average. The UK mean temperature was 4.3°C, which is 0.2°C above average. 2023-24 Milder than average. The UK mean temperature was 5.29°C, which is 1.49°C above average. 2024-25 Milder than average. The UK mean temperature was 4.62°C, which is 0.53°C above average. Last winter was milder than average overall. That said, January was a colder month which brought significant snowfall to parts of the north. In the south snow was at a premium, with falls being transient. Rime ice in January 2025 Winter 2025-26 indicators A number of indicators are used when producing the winter forecast. The key ones are discussed below, but they could change through the rest of the autumn. Seasonal models The seasonal models listed below all reach until the end of the meteorological winter. Model Temperature Precipitation UK Met Office GloSea (UK) D/J/F Above average Mostly no bias Meteo France (France) D/J/F Above average Above average in the north, no bias in the south ECMWF D/J/F Above average No bias DWD (Germany) D/J/F Above average Mostly no bias ECCC (Canada) D/J/F Above average Above average in the north, no bias in the south CMCC D/J/F Above average Above average in the far north and south JMA D/J/F Above average Mostly above average C3S multi system (European combi) D/J/F Above average No bias CFS v2 (USA) D/J/F Above average Mostly no bias D/J/F = December, January, February The Climate Forecast System v2 is available on TWO. View the latest CFS v2 charts. The signal for above average temperatures has strengthened. The Meteo France model which was alone in dropping the signal has reinstated it with this update. The precipitation signal remains very weak. That said, a wetter than average winter across the UK taken as a whole seems more likely than a drier than average. Since the second issue of this article on 24th October the models have trended towards a milder and wetter season. It would still be reasonable to conclude that a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is likely to be dominant, though it isn't a given. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) The NAO is essentially a measure of pressure patterns across the North Atlantic. During the winters when a negative NAO develops, blocking areas of high pressure form at high latitudes and displace the cold Arctic air down to mid latitude locations such as the UK. This year the likelihood of a negative NAO in the early part of the winter may be increased, in part due to La Niña which is forecast. Later in the winter the impact of this will probably reduce. Therefore, the chance of cold snaps may be heightened in late November and December. Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) The QBO index is determined by the strength and direction of equatorial zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere. When the winds are in a westerly phase the index is positive and when in an easterly phase, it is negative. A correlation between the strength of the jet stream across the North Atlantic and the QBO has been identified. A negative (easterly) QBO favours a weaker jet stream which in turn means a greater chance of cold spells during the winter months. The current expectation is for the QBO to be in a negative (easterly) phase during the coming winter. On balance this increases the likelihood of a colder and drier than average winter. Snow paid parts of the south a brief visit in January 2025 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern Pacific are anomalously warm and La Niña when they are colder than average. ENSO influences global weather patterns, although the connection to the UK is relatively weak. Forecasting ENSO conditions several months ahead is prone to error, but at the moment La Niña conditions are predicted to persist through December 2025, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected between January and March. Confidence in this projection is around 61%. La Niña is associated with an increased likelihood of cold spells during the first half of winter. If La Niña then fades this could theoretically support a colder than average winter in western Europe. The correlation is weak and many other factors come into play, but all things considered, this ENSO outlook is about as favourable as it could be for a cold winter. Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) The SPV is a large area of low pressure and cold air that circulates around the Earth's poles in the stratosphere during winter. It forms a swirling vortex of strong westerly winds that helps contain the cold air near the poles. A disrupted and weakened polar vortex can lead to outbreaks of cold air at mid latitude locations such as the UK. Computer models show zonal winds at 10hPa and 60°N slowing in late November and probably reversing in early December. This would be an exceptionally early Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. La Niña appears to lead to an increased chance of a SSW event. An SSW is a dramatic and rapid temperature increase (by as much as 50°C in a few days) in the stratosphere, which can cause the polar vortex to weaken, split, or even reverse its winds. This disruption then propagates downwards through the atmosphere leading to cold air being displaced from the Arctic region to mid latitude locations such as the UK. So it increases the chance of cold spells, but it does not guarantee them. The pressure blocks can align in such a way that very mild conditions are the result. Solar Activity The link between solar activity and the weather remains controversial. There is a suggestion that colder winters are more likely to occur in the UK close to or shortly after a solar minimum is reached. A solar minimum is the period of the 11 year solar cycle when the sun is least active, with the fewest sunspots and solar flares. Solar Cycle 25 is considered to have started between August 2019 and January 2020. It is currently close to its peak which means high levels of solar activity can be expected. This would possibly increase the chance of a mild winter in western Europe. Weather analogue index The automated system checks the current state of the 500hPa level in the northern hemisphere and compares it with the same day for every year going back to 1948. As of 19th November 2025, the 5 closest matches over the last 30 days are: 1) 2021 2) 1980 3) 2005 4) 1988 5) 1995 Winter 2021-22 was much milder than average Winter 1980-81 was close to average Winter 2005-06 was close to average Winter 1988-89 was much milder than average Winter 1995-96 was colder than average The analogues are now a mixed bunch. Winter 1995-96 was the sixth coldest since 1970, but at the other end of the scale, 1988-89 was the fifty-second out of fifty-five. You can view the latest 30 day index tracker each day to see how it develops. Recent climatology The trend for months to be milder than the Central England Temperature (CET) has continued since last year, with the exception of January which was colder. The values below from the TWO tracker show the recent anomalies against the often used 30 year series as well as the 1659-2020 one. November to 18th: 10.3°C 1961-1990: 3.90°C 1971-2000: 3.30°C 1981-2010: 3.00°C 1991-2020: 2.90°C 1659-2020: 4.20°C October: 11.2C 13.5°C 1961-1990: 0.70°C 1971-2000: 0.90°C 1981-2010: 0.60°C 1991-2020: 0.30°C 1659-2020: 1.50°C September: 13.5°C 1961-1990: -0.10°C 1971-2000: -0.10°C 1981-2010: -0.50°C 1991-2020: -0.70°C 1659-2020: 0.10°C August: 17.7°C 1961-1990: 1.90°C 1971-2000: 1.70°C 1981-2010: 1.50°C 1991-2020: 1.20°C 1659-2020: 2.00°C July: 18.3°C 1961-1990: 2.40°C 1971-2000: 2.10°C 1981-2010: 1.90°C 1991-2020: 1.50°C 1659-2020: 2.30°C June: 17.3°C 1961-1990: 3.20°C 1971-2000: 3.60°C 1981-2010: 3.20°C 1991-2020: 2.60°C 1659-2020: 3.00°C Developments during the autumn months will have an influence on the full winter forecast which will be issued at the end of November. At this stage developments are fairly neutral. September brought close to average temperatures and there were cyclonic spells. Conversely, October was milder than average and November has been much milder than the norm despite the ongoing cold spell at the time of publication. In general terms, a cool and wet September, followed by a dry and mild or warm October, followed by a cold and wet November is the pattern we would consider most favourable for a cold winter. Therefore, it could be argued that the first half of the meteorological autumn would support the idea of a cold winter. Nonetheless, these possible correlations are weak, if present at all. A wildcard winter The forecast for winter 2025–26 will be published at the end of November, covering the period from 1 December 2025 to 28 February 2026. At this stage there is a clear split between what recent climatology and the seasonal models suggest and what the background “forcing” mechanisms favour. Therefore, as the meteorological autumn approaches its end we’re continuing to describe this as a “wild card” winter. Finally, remember that despite the warming trend apparent in recent decades there are no guarantees. The UK's weather is variable, and although the chance of a given winter being cold is lower than it was 40 years ago, it absolutely remains possible. Think of it like throwing a dice: if in 1980 you needed a 1, 3 or 6 for a cold winter, now it may be that only a 1 or 6 will deliver.