Autumn 2025 weather The meteorological autumn spans the period from 1st September to 30th November. The early part of the season can bring very warm or even hot periods, but by the end the possibility of frost and snow increases substantially. Autumn 2024 was close to the norm, and even parts of the south saw accumulating snow. Despite that, many recent seasons have produced above average temperatures. How is Autumn 2025 shaping up? By Brian Gaze26th August 2025 Wintry weather in November In this first look at the prospects for autumn 2025 a range of factors are considered. These include: recent temperature trends, seasonal models and background signals. Temperature trends in 2025 The Central England Temperature (CET) has mostly been above average this year. However, January was rather cold when compared to the 1991-20 average. Month CET Anomaly January 3.4 -0.4 (-1.3) February 5.3 1.5 (0.4) March 7.9 2.3 (1.2) April 10.9 3.0 (1.9) May 13.2 2.1 (1.3) June 17.0 2.9 (2.3) July 18.4 2.4 (1.6) August (provisional to 24th) 17.8 2.0 (1.3) The anomalies in the table above are compared to the 1961-90 series and in brackets the 1991-20 series. Even compared to the notably warmer 1991-20 series the tendency for months to be above rather than below CET is marked. Autumn 2024 close to average Autumn 2024 brought close to average temperatures and rainfall amounts across the UK as whole. Compared to the 1991-2020 norms: Mean temperature: 9.92°C, which is 0.2°C above the average Rainfall: 301.5mm, which is 90% of the average Sunshine: 263.9 hours, which is 95% of the average Therefore, it was the 11th coolest of the century so far. Measured by the Central England Temperature (CET) the seasonal anomalies were: 1961-90: 0.67°C 1971-00: 0.6°C 1981-10: 0.27°C 1991-20: 0.07°C There was a marked split in the rainfall anomalies. In much of southern and central England it was wetter than the norm, whereas in Scotland and Northern Ireland it was drier. When viewed month by month the details were: The monthly temperature anomalies were: September: -0.2°COctober: 0.6°CNovember: -0.2°C The UK monthly rainfall statistics were: September: 125%October: 84%November: 68% The UK monthly sunshine statistics were: September: 96%October: 97%November: 89% Autumn 2024 was memorable for vivid displays of the Northern Lights Seasonal model overview The table below summarises output from seasonal forecast models for September, October and November 2025. It represents the data available at time of publication and subsequent updates may favour a different outcome. Model Temperature Precipitation UK Met Office (UK) Above average Above average around the UK Meteo France (France) Above average No bias DWD (Germany) Above average Mostly below average CMCC Above average Mostly no bias ECMWF Above average Above average around the UK, below in central areas JMA (Japan) Above average Mostly no bias C3S multi system Above average Mostly no bias CFS v2 (USA) Above average Below average in places C3S multi system incorporates data from a range of sources including: ECMWF, UK Met Office, Meteo France, CMCC, DWD, JMA and NCEP. Since the first update in July there have been some changes. The signal for above average temperatures has strengthened, in fact, it could be one of the strongest signals indicated for a coming season at this lead time. On the other hand, the likelihood of wetter than average conditions appears to have decreased slightly, with most models now showing no bias towards above or below average rainfall. Background signals In addition to the seasonal models a number of background signals are worth mentioning: 1) According to the National Weather Service, there is a 56% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions through to October. In the late autumn and early winter La Niña is favoured, before ENSO-neutral conditions return. That could suggest an increased chance of cold snaps in the late autumn and winter months. 2) An above normal hurricane season is forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center. This could increase the chance of high pressure blocking over continental Europe. NOTE: Approximately two thirds of Atlantic hurricane activity occur between 20th August and 10th October. 3) Current high levels of global warmth. 4) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) continue to be well above the normal around the UK. However, there is an area of cold pooling in the mid-Atlantic which may help to weaken the westerly flow and increase the chance of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. 5) Warmer than average seasons have been common in the UK during recent years. That said, Autumn 2024 was close to the norm. 6) The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is expected to remain in an easterly phase through the autumn and winter. This could weaken the jet stream. The above pointers are mixed. If it weren’t for the background warming, they would likely support the idea that cold spells are more probable than normal, and therefore a colder than average winter. Background signals and models clash Seasonal computer models and recent climatology strongly favour a milder than average meteorological autumn (September, October, and November). Since the first update, the signal for above average temperatures over the three month period has strengthened even further and is now at anomalously high levels. Set against that are some of the background forcing mechanisms which can drive weather patterns in the UK and northwestern Europe during late autumn. Since the first update, the likelihood of a wet season has decreased, although the signal for precipitation amounts is usually weak in this part of the world. The Weather Outlook (TWO) autumn forecast, covering September, October, and November, will be issued at the end of August.