If your festival is more than a week away, expect weather forecasts to change with alarming frequency. Pinpointing the details of the UK's weather at this range is notoriously difficult—in fact, it simply isn't possible with current technology.
So should you bother checking? Yes. By looking at forecasts and charts based on the probability of different outcomes, you'll be several steps ahead of your fellow festival-goers, who may just glance at the latest snapshot forecast showing either a sun or storm icon, depending on the time of day they check it!
At The Weather Outlook the best tools to use at this range are the ensemble model plots. You can freely access three different ensemble models: the ECMWF ENS (run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), MOGREPS-G (run by the UK Met Office), and GEFS (run by NCEP).
I can't find the exact location of my festival, what should I do? Pick the nearest location! Here's why:
1) Medium-range ensemble models are run at a lower resolution than short-range deterministic models. This simply means there are fewer forecast points available
2) At this range a distance of 50 to 100 miles is tiny on a global scale, so it's not worth trying to pinpoint the positions of small-scale weather features. The key is to focus on the big picture, for example, is high pressure likely to dominate the UK's weather or will low pressure systems be steaming in from the southwest?
Here are links to the tools:
ECMWF Ensemble
MOGREPS-G Ensemble
GEFS Ensemble
If you're feeling lucky, check out the extended-range GEFS charts which go out to 35 days ahead and update once daily, unlike the 16-day ones which update four times a day.
GEFS 35 Ensemble
You can check out the snapshot forecasts for up to 16 days ahead, but they become much more useful when you're looking 10 days or less into the future. As the lead time shortens the forecast begins to firm up. On The Weather Outlook these forecasts update four times a day. Just select your location from the header bar.
For example, here's the 16 day link to perhaps the most well known festival in the UK!
Glastonbury 16 day weather forecast
Once opened, you'll see options to change the view. These include Classic, Table, Timeline, 10 Day, and if you're in the mood for something different, Alt.
It’s almost time to set off and the excitement is building. However, despite your (and our) best efforts the weather forecast remains clouded in mystery. At this stage it’s all about the short-range, hour-by-hour forecasts. To view them, simply select your location as before, toggle the 16-day button to ‘Hourly’, then click the magnifying glass icon.
For example, this is the hour by hour forecast for that well known festival.
Glastonbury hourly weather forecast
The hourly forecasts offer some unique features:
1) Model selection: Once the forecast is open, just scroll down to find the option to choose different model data
2) Range toggle: Located beneath the main forecast panel, this option expands the forecast area to highlight extremes in rain, temperature, and wind. It's especially useful because weather conditions can vary significantly over short distances, particularly during the summer months
Hopefully! But here comes the caveat: even at very short ranges, the weather can still throw a curveball. That’s why it’s always wise to be prepared, with both sun cream and an umbrella at the ready. Be prepared whatever the weather throws in your direction this summer!
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