Cold but is there any sign of severe weather?

High pressure centered over Scandinavia will act as a block to the progression of Atlantic weather systems in the coming days. This leads to an easterly flow pushing across western Europe, which during the winter months generally brings cold conditions to the UK. The "Beast from the East" spell in 2018 was a particularly severe example. This time things look a little different  - but could that change as we head toward the middle of February?

Cold but not very cold?

Although winds will be blowing from the east in the coming days, it will often be rather cold or cold, but not very cold. Any precipitation that arrives will be mixed, with snow mostly falling over higher ground. Daytime temperatures will fluctuate, and while they will generally be below the seasonal norm at times they won’t be too far off.

The chart above shows the forecast maximum temperatures for Sunday, 9th February. Values will fluctuate daily. Why? There are several factors, but one of them is the varying air temperatures aloft.  

Temperatures aloft are marginal

The chart below shows forecast temperatures at approximately 1,500m above sea level on Monday, 10th February. Over much of the UK, values are close to or slightly below -5°C. That’s a relatively cold but not very cold air mass. It suggests marginal conditions for snow - if there is any precipitation - depending on other factors such as the extent of cold over continental Europe and the exact wind direction. For example, is the air coming directly from the near continent, or is it traveling over the North Sea.

By Wednesday, 25th February the same computer model shows that winds are still blowing from the east. At first glance nothing has really changed. However, on closer inspection there are differences. Temperatures at the 850hPa level are now a few degrees higher, making the already marginal conditions for snow even less favorable. 

However, if you look further east into central Europe there is a small area of purple shading. That shows a pool of much colder air which is heading towards the UK in the following days. In other words, values at the 850hPa level are waxing and waning, despite an easterly flow persisting. If very cold conditions were established in central and eastern Europe the likelihood is this would matter less because variations at lower levels would mean precipitation would be mostly snow regardless. The different computer models are showing variations on the theme discussed here, with colder and less cold conditions on different days, but the broadscale picture remains similar. 

So the lack of deep cold to the east of the UK means that currently this is very different to the Beast From The East spell in February and March 2018. Could things change?

Is a severe cold spell possible?

Yes it is, but the more pertinent question would be is it likely? The ensemble graph for London below provides insight into the possibilities. The horizontal axis represents time extending 16 days ahead. The top part of the plot shows 850hPa temperature forecasts from all of the runs in the ensemble model for that period. 

Assessing the risk of severe wintry weather

Issued 8th February 2025

In the UK deep cold is generally indicated by 850hPa temperatures falling below -10C. So the question to ask is do many of the model runs show this happening? In the short term they don't, but from the middle of the month the lines increasingly diverge, indicating a growing spread of scenarios. That is expected when looking further ahead, but how many favour a very cold period?

In this update around half of them do, which taken at face value suggests a probability of approximately 50%. The caveat is this update contains more very cold runs than other recent ones, so the key will be to see if that trend continues in the coming days.

In conclusion, there is a realistic chance that a more significant cold period could develop during the middle part of the month. 

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