Winter 2024-25 still has a month to run, but it has been quite different from a number of recent ones. December was mild, with the TWO tracker showing it to be more than 2°C warmer than the 1961-90 average. However, January bucked the trend of recent months and years, finishing a little colder than the 1961-90 average. The first half of the month brought a significant cold spell, although only parts of the north saw substantial snowfall. The second half of the month was mixed, but the most notable event was Storm Éowyn, considered the most severe storm in a decade.
Computer models suggest blocked weather patterns in February. Therefore, the likelihood of winds coming from the north or east is thought to be higher than normal. In turn that increases the chance of colder conditions, meaning parts of the UK that haven't yet seen any significant snow still could before the start of meteorological spring.
If both of the first two months of the year are colder than average, does it have any implications for spring? Although past weather isn't necessarily indicative of future conditions, recent climatology is a factor considered in the long-range forecasts issued by The Weather Outlook.
Publicly available data from most of the seasonal models now covers the three month spring period.
M/A/M = March, April, May
The Climate Forecast System v2 is available on TWO. View the latest CFS v2 charts.
At this stage aggregated temperatures for March, April and May are considered more likely to be above average than below. The seasonal models do not show a clear signal for precipitation anomalies.
The computer models are suggesting:
1) Over the 3 month period temperatures are more likely to be above average than below
2) There is no clear signal for precipitation to deviate significantly from the 30 year average
Spring 2024 was 1.4°C warmer than the 1991-2020 norm and 2.33°C above the 1961-90 average. The May Central England Temperature (CET) average of 14.1°C was the second warmest on record, with data reaching back to 1659.
Rainfall was 132% of the 1991-2020 average, making it a wet season. Sunshine hours were 83% of the 1991-2020 average, indicating it was duller than normal.
Despite data from computer models and the warmer than average conditions in recent springs, the colder start to 2025 raises some questions. If colder conditions continue through February and into March, the likelihood of temperatures falling below the norm over the March to May period could be higher than in recent years.
The TWO seasonal forecast will be updated to cover the spring months on February 29th.
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