There is a possibility of cold weather developing during the final third of the month, but high impact and disruptive conditions currently appear more likely to result from wet and windy periods. Some recent computer model runs have shown very deep areas of low pressure near the UK, with tight pressure gradients leading to spells of stormy winds.
Although computer models are signaling the possibility of strong winds at times during the last third of the month, it is not yet possible to be specific about the extent of the risk. The graph below shows wind gust predictions for the period from January 18th to 27th, based on all the runs in the GEFS ensemble model, using Cardiff as the forecast location. Between the 22nd and 27th, a significant number of the runs indicate gusts of 50–70 mph at times, with one outlier predicting speeds of 85 mph.
The potential for stormy conditions is something which needs monitoring as we head towards the end of the month.
This time of the year can be very windy. Notably, the Burns' Day Storm, also known as Cyclone Daria, was a powerful European windstorm that struck on 25th January, 1990. It caused widespread devastation across the UK and northern Europe, with wind gusts exceeding 100 mph in some areas, leading to significant damage to infrastructure, extensive tree loss, and many fatalities.
With a powerful jet stream and areas of low pressure potentially impacting the UK, there is a risk of significant rainfall, which could lead to the danger of flooding returning. Weather systems will be moving in from the Atlantic, so the wettest conditions are likely to affect western Britain and Northern Ireland.
There is always some uncertainty, as slow moving frontal systems can cause deviations from the typical rainfall distribution. Nonetheless, the graphic provides an indication of the possibilities. It shows the percentage chance of 10 mm or more of rain falling on 25th January. This is intended for indicative purposes only, and comparable forecasts for the following days suggest a similar pattern. The areas of yellow and orange shading show where the highest chance is.
There have been reports discussing the possibility of the Beast from the East returning, potentially leading to a very cold period of weather in the UK. This is because some computer models have forecast high pressure building strongly over Scandinavia. Such a pattern can result in an easterly flow pushing across western Europe and into the UK. It is the type of setup that often brings southern areas their coldest periods of winter.
Famously, in February and March 2018, the "Beast from the East" was a severe cold spell that gripped the UK. It was caused by a polar vortex disruption and easterly winds bringing freezing air from Siberia. The period was characterized by heavy snow and sub-zero temperatures. It caused widespread disruption, and the temperatures were notably low for so late in the winter. Although the spell has become known as "the Beast from the East", the term predates it and is defined by the Met Office (Beast from the East definition) as describing "cold and wintry conditions in the UK as a result of easterly winds from the near continent".
The forecast chart above for 27th January shows high pressure over Scandinavia and an area of low pressure taking a southerly track near the UK. Although, taken literally, it isn’t particularly cold at this point, the pattern is close to one that could bring very wintry conditions to the UK.
In recent days, the number of computer models predicting a blocking high pressure system (slow moving areas of high pressure which divert the usual eastward flow of low pressure systems) becoming established over Scandinavia has decreased. Most now favour a strong jet stream and an Atlantic flow pushing across the UK. As a result, the current greater concern is the potential for strong winds, heavy rain and flooding. Nonetheless, the possibility of a cold and snowy scenario cannot be completely ruled out.
On balance, unsettled weather driven by a strong jet stream is the most likely scenario during the final ten days of January. This would result in temperatures being close to or above average, with snow mostly confined to high ground in the north.
That said, this outcome is not certain and a much colder outcome remains a possibility. Additionally, there is often a tendency for the Atlantic flow to weaken in the second half of winter. Therefore, if high pressure does not become established this month, it will still be something to monitor closely in February.
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