Winter 2023-24 has been very mixed. Both December and January recorded above average Central England Temperature (CET) averages, but there were cold spells. Most notably, mid January brought a wintry period, with widespread frosts and snow in places. Nonetheless, large parts of the UK did not see lying snow through the period.
Computer models are suggesting very mild conditions in early February. However, there are signs of it turning colder through the second week. Some of the long range signals are pointing towards the risk of colder conditions continuing through the second half of the month. If that is the case, the likelihood of cold spells in the early part of the spring may remain quite high, and some of the background signals are supportive of that idea.
Publicly available data from most of the seasonal models now covers the three month spring period.
M/A/M = March, April, May
The Climate Forecast System v2 is available on TWO. View the latest CFS v2 charts.
At this stage aggregated temperatures for March, April and May are considered more likely to be above average than below. The seasonal models do not show a clear signal for precipitation anomalies.
Tentative suggestions for the coming spring are:
1) Over the 3 month period temperatures are more likely to be above average than below
2) There is no clear signal for precipitation to deviate significantly from the 30 year average.
Spring 2023 was 0.3°C warmer than average in much of the UK, although it was largely due to positive temperature anomalies later in the season. Temperatures in March and April were quite close to the long term norms across the UK, although the Central England Temperature (CET) averages were above the 1961-90, 1971-00, 1981-10 norms. April was 0.3°C below the 1991-20 series average.
Rainfall was 106% of the 1991-2020 average making it a slightly wetter than average season. Sunshine hours were 98% of the 1991-2020 average.
The TWO seasonal forecast will be updated to cover the spring months on February 29th.
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See the Model inventory for the full list of model charts and data