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Autumn 2019

Weather prospects


13/07/2019

Autumn outlook

Before looking ahead it is worth quickly reviewing the weather so far this year as well as Autumn 2018.

2019 to date

Central England Temperature (CET) has been close to or above the average in all months so far this year. Rainfall levels have been more varied.

Month CET Anomaly
January 4.0 0.1
February 6.7 3.0 
March 7.8 2.1 
April 9.1 1.2 
May 11.1 0.0 
June 14.2 0.1 
July 16.7 0.8 (provisional to 12th)

Autumn 2018

The season was 0.3C warmer than average with a UK mean temperature of 9.8C. [Note:The anomaly was very similar to Autumn 2017 which finished with a mean temperature of 9.9C.] 

The monthly temperatures anomalies were:

September: -0.2C
October: 0.1C
November: 1.1C

Rainfall totals were 96% of the 1981-2010 average.

Sunshine totals were 113% of the 1981-2010 average. Notably all three months recorded above average levels.

In recent years there has been a tendency for months to be above rather than below CET. That is a significant consideration when looking ahead to Autumn 2019. 

 

Autumn scene

"Nebelostfriesland" by Matthias Süßen. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Wikimedia Commons.

Autumn seasonal model overview

The table below summarises output from seasonal forecast models for September, October and November 2019. The summary represents the data available at time of publication and subsequent updates may favour a different outcome. 

Model Temperature Precipitation
UK Met Office GloSea (UK) Above average Weak bias towards above average
Meteo France (France) Above average Below average in the south
DWD (Germany) Above average Below average in parts of the UK
International Research Institute (IRI)  No anomaly Above average
Jamstec (Japan) Above average Below average
C3S multi system (European combi) Above average Weak bias towards below average
CFS v2 (USA) Close to average Above average

C3S multi system incorporates date from ECMWF, UK Met Office, Meteo France, CMCC and DWD.

There is quite a strong signal for above average temperatures which is consistent with recent climatology. The precipitation outlook is much less clear, as is often the case.

The relationship between autumn and winter has been discussed before. There are suggestions of a correlation between warm autumns and mild winters. 

Background signals

In additional to the seasonal models a number of key points are worth considering:

1) El Nino conditions are forecast to give way to ENSO-neutral in the next month or two. Once established, ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the rest of the autumn and winter 

2) A near normal hurricane season is forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center

3) Current high levels of global warmth

4) Warmer than average seasons have been common in the UK during recent years

The above pointers favour above average temperatures this autumn.

Summary

A warmer than average autumn is favoured and the chance of the UK mean temperature exceeding 10C is considered high. The precipitation signal is much more varied. On balance below average rainfall totals are favoured but that could be due to the first half of the season being quite dry.

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