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Summer 2019 weather

Forecast indicators


02/05/2019

What does summer 2019 have in store? The TWO summer forecast will be issued in late May but before then we will issue two updates taking a look at what the latest data is suggesting. 

Fine weather in summer

By by simonwakefield [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Seasonal model overview

A range of seasonal models are available. However it is important to remember that their skill level (accuracy) for the UK is low.

Model Temperature Precipitation
GloSea (UKM) Close to average Near normal or above average
ECM Slightly above average Close to or slightly below average
Meteo France Above average No signal
DWD Slightly above average No signal
CS3 Slightly above average No signal
Beijing Climate Center Above average Below average
CanSIPS Slightly above average Slightly below average
CFSv2 Above average Below average
Table 1: Forecast temperature and precipitation anomalies, June, July and August

 

The notable things at this stage are:

i) Most models show temperatures being close to or above the average taken over the 3 month summer period as a whole

ii) Most models are forecasting close to or below average levels of precipitation

Despite points i and ii, it is worth drawing attention to the GloSea model which seems to be favouring close to average temperatures and above average rainfall. Coming after the hot and dry summer of last year that outcome would be a significant contrast. 

Anomalies masking the outcome

The anomalies in the table may not be telling the complete story. They are for the meteorological summer as a whole and there is a chance that extreme swings are cancelling each other out to an extent. For example hot and dry periods may be offset by cool and wet ones leading to a close to average outcome overall. 

ENSO conditions

The state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant impact on temperature and rainfall patterns around the globe. Nonetheless its link to the UK summer is thought to be weak.



Latest forecasts suggest there a 65% chance of a weak El Nino lasting through the Northern Hemisphere summer. By the autumn the probability of it continuing falls to between 50% to 55%. Therefore ENSO is not expected to favour a particular outcome.

Atlantic Hurricane season

Several forecasts for the 2019 Hurricane Season have been issued. They range from suggesting slightly below to slightly above levels of activity. At this stage none of them go for an anomalously active or quiet season. 

Colorado State University is predicting 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

The predictions possibly favour an increased chance of settled weather in the UK during the late summer.

Summary

1) Seasonal models on balance suggest above average temperatures and below average rainfall levels taken over the June, July and August period taken as a whole.

2) A weak El Nino is not expected to strongly favour a particular outcome.

3) The latest 2018 Atlantic Hurricane season forecasts perhaps point to an increased chance of settled weather relative to the average in the late summer.

At this stage a summer with conditions closer to the average than in 2018 is thought probable. Despite that some fine and possibly hot periods are likely and on balance the data suggests above average temperatures over the three month period.

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