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November outlook

Mixed month


05/11/2018

Overview

Temperatures during September and October finished very close to the long term average. September rainfall was 108% of average, but as usual there were regional variations. October was drier than normal in most of the UK, although north western Scotland was wetter. Will those trends continue during the final month of the meteorological autumn? 

Frosty day
By allen watkin from London, UK (Frosty) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Unsettled outlook

The first few days of November brought very mild conditions to parts of the country with maximum temperatures on November 5th close to 17C (63F) in southern England. The TWO monthly forecast headline which was issued at the end of October is for a close to average November. Is that still looking likely?

In the next few days a transition to much more unsettled weather is expected. That is likely to be accompanied by cooler conditions which will see temperatures dipping down towards the seasonal average. All of the country could see significant rainfall as a strong jet stream brings areas of low pressure in from the Atlantic.

In the longer term there are signs of high pressure having more influence again. That suggests an increased chance of drier periods. There is also a signal for milder than average temperatures which suggests that high pressure will predominantly be situated to the south of the UK.

The London GEFS graph below shows forecast 850hPa temperatures and precipitation for the next 16 days. Upper air temperatures become close to the 30 year average by November 8th as the mild air is squeezed out. Between November 15th to 21st they climb above the average again. After a dry start it turns much wetter by November 8th, but after the middle of the month there are fewer rain spikes, indicating that it may become somewhat drier. At this stage there is nothing notably cold showing up.

GEFS London 850hPa temperatures and precipitation stamp 850hPA temperatures

 

Summary

The TWO monthly forecast is for a close to average month. The latest computer model data points to a period of more unsettled weather and closer to average temperatures developing during the next week. After the middle of the month there are indications of it becoming less wet, particularly in the south. There are also signs of it becoming milder again and nothing notably cold is showing up in the model output at this stage.

TWO monthly forecast

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