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Summer 2018 weather forecast

June, July and August


31/05/2018

Overview

The TWO summer 2018 weather forecast has been issued and covers June, July and August. The headline is for a mixed summer with the driest spells likely early and late.

Over the three month period temperatures are forecast to be a above the long term average. Precipitation levels are forecast to be close to average but significant local variations are possible due to the convective nature of much of the rainfall.

Late summer day

How is the forecast produced?

Factors considered include the following:

  • Long range computer models run by the global forecasting centres. An example is the Climate Forecast System (CFS) v2 which is run regularly by National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in the USA.
  • Climatology
  • Trends during recent seasons
  • Pattern matching or analogues of previous from previous years     

Forecast accuracy

Long range forecasts for the UK and north western Europe continue to display a low skill, in other words they are often not accurate. This in large part is because the edge of the European landmass is affected by different air masses which can even make short range forecasting very difficult.

Summary

Much of the first half of June is expected to be fine. More changeable weather is likely to return by mid-month and then continue.

July is forecast to be mixed despite some drier and warmer spells.

August could start off quite unsettled but the chance of drier and warmer spells increases through the second half of the month.

TWO seasonal forecast

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