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Halloween weather

Broomsticks or brollies?


28/10/2017

Overview

Late October often brings unsettled weather but fine and settled spells are perfectly possible. Halloween 2014 was the warmest on record in the UK. Gravesend, Kent and Kew Gardens, Greater London both recorded temperatures of 23.6C (74.3F) on 31st October and in much of the south temperatures exceeded 20C (68F).

Halloween
By Rene Cunningham (Flickr: Borough Market) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

This year's Halloween weather

The ensemble computer models suggest a mixed outlook as we head towards Halloween. It is expected to turn cooler at times, especially in the northern half of the UK.

The postage stamp chart below shows forecast rainfall at 18:00GMT on Halloween. At this stage a large number of the individual runs suggest the possibility of rain in the north. The chance of dry conditions is much higher in the south, although rain can't be ruled out yet. The temperature charts (See the GEFS temperature plots) favour a relatively mild Halloween.

GEFS06z precipitation postage stamp plot for Halloween 2017

 

Summary

There is still some uncertainty about the Halloween 2017 weather prospects, however ensemble computer models suggest it will be relatively mild. There is a significant risk of rain in the north but a good chance of drier conditions in the south. On balance we think broomsticks and brollies are evenly matched.

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