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October weather

Autumnal fare?


5/10/2017

Overview

September brought mixed weather and with the Central England Temperature (CET) finishing 0.1C below the average it was much cooler than last year. October has started with changeable conditions and the TWO monthly forecast headline is for quite an unsettled month but with drier spells. Does the latest computer model data still support that?

Red sky

Red sky over Berkhamsted, Hertfordshire

The medium range view

The chart below is from the GEFS 6z ensemble model, Thursday 5th October 2017. It shows the London 16 day forecast 850hPa temperatures on the upper half and rainfall on the lower half. The things to note are:

1) Some rain is shown but it doesn't look very wet for the time of year.

2) Air mass temperatures don't look notable. Temperatures are close to the average for much of the period. That would suggest pleasant days but an increasing risk of nighttime frosts.

GEFS 850hPa temperatures and precipitation

Summary

The outlook for the next 16 days remains quite mixed but there should be a good amount of dry weather, especially in the southern half of the UK. Wet and windy spells are expected to be more frequent in the north. The risk of nighttime frosts probably increases but temperatures for most of the time won't be far off the average. Mixed conditions are expected to continue through the last third of the month.

TWO monthly forecast

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