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Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.

Milder period

Posted Fri 15th December 15:25

The early part of next week is expected to be mild and in the south there should be a lot of dry weather. Beyond that things become more uncertain.

Milder period but for how long?

There's good cross model agreement for milder weather to return during Sunday and Monday. High pressure centred to the south of the UK should keep it mostly dry and mild in the south beyond the middle of the week, but it remains more changeable in the north. The anticyclonic conditions in the south could bring fog at times. 

As we approach Christmas developments become more uncertain. A minority of computer model runs show a transition back to much colder weather but at this stage most keep it relatively mild. It probably becomes more changeable so the risk of rain will be increasing in the south. During this period snow looks like being reserved for high ground in the north but with a number of model runs showing a colder outcome it is too early to be certain. 

I've annotated today's London GEFS 6z 850hPa temperature and precipitation plot. Note the mild period between 18th and 22nd December. Thereafter a range of outcomes is on the menu but colder ones are in a minority. 

TL;DR

Milder weather returns in the coming days. The first half of next week should bring a lot of dry weather to the south but there is an increasing risk of fog. By the end of the week there is a chance of it turning colder again but on balance a transition to more changeable weather is favoured.

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brian.gaze 7 years ago Show replies(0)

The colder options are hanging in there at the moment but I expect we'll reach a tipping point by Monday. Could go either way until then.

Update

vinceedwards 7 years ago Show replies(0)

Crickey! It is in the balance isn't it? We have seen, this last week, how a change of wind direction can make such a difference. I'm looking daily to see if more of those computer models favour a cold snap around the 25th. Just a few more will mak

Update

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