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Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.
The weather is set to remain quite unsettled and cold during the coming days. In the medium term the risk of rain remains but temperatures should rise back towards the seasonal average. The start of the meteorological winter is now 16 days away and just coming into range of the GFS / GEFS computer models. How is it looking?
The GEFS 06z postage stamp plot below is for Sunday December 1st. It shows 500hPa heights and Mean Surface Level Pressure (MSLP) as forecast by all of the individual runs in the ensemble model. There are a range of outcomes on offer so forecast confidence is low.
Most of the stamps show an Atlantic flow across the UK and much of northwestern Europe. That suggests further wet and windy periods. With saturated ground and extensive flooding in large parts of the country that is a concern.
Unsettled conditions are not a given. A significant number of the stamps show high pressure to the south having more influence on things than it has recently. That suggests a greater chance of dry periods and the possibility of fog and frost. However, it isn't generally a cold set-up unless the high pressure can build northwards across the whole of the UK. A few of the run do actually go for this.
What about really cold and wintry conditions? There are about 5 stamps which build high pressure to the west and north of the UK. That pattern often leads to cold snaps in the UK, although the really cold air has only reached the UK on 1 of the stamps. In other words the possibility is there but the chance at this stage is considered low.
Forecast confidence for the start of the meteorological winter is low. An Atlantic flow may bring fairly typical weather with close to average temperatures and periods of rain, with the wettest conditions in the north. Nonetheless, there are other options showing up in the computer model projections and some of them could lead to a wintry spell. At the moment the chance of that are low.
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