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Heat wave possible next week

[Updated 07:40 20/06/2019]

Fair weather

Rather cool and showery weather continues today and tomorrow. By the weekend it will be turning drier and warmer, especially in the south. Early next week outbreaks of rain spread northwards. Computer models are now showing a high likelihood of an exceptionally hot Spanish Plume weather pattern developing over much of western Europe and it could well reach the UK....READ IN FULL

Thursday starts with scattered showers but many places are dry. Showers become more widespread this morning and in Scotland they could merge to give longer spells of rain. It will be quite breezy but in sunny spells it should feel pleasant. 

Temperatures range from 13C (55F) in Scotland to 21C (70F) in the south east. See the rain radar for the latest view.

Arpege forecast chart 1

Meteo France Arpege, rain, 16:00 BST Thu 20th June

Tonight showers continue in northern and western Scotland. Elsewhere it becomes dry with clear spells.


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Monthly forecast

Buzz

Summer forecast Issued 01/06/2019


Tomorrow brings sunny spells and showers to the north of the UK. The south has scattered showers many places could remain dry. Temperatures will be similar to recent days.

Arpege forecast chart 2

Meteo France Arpege, rain, 16:00 BST Fri 21st June

Record breaking Spanish plume?

Saturday looks mostly fine in England and Wales. Showers continue in Northern Ireland and Scotland. It will be warmer than recently, especially in the south. Sunday is expected to be very warm in southern and central areas, although the risk of showers remains in the north. Later in the day outbreaks of heavy rain could push into the south west.

Early next week outbreaks of heavy and thundery rain push northwards. They could be focused on western and central regions. In the east and south east it probably turns hot. Some computer models are showing upper level air temperatures breaking the UK all time record due to an exceptional Spanish plume pattern building northwards across France and into northwestern Europe. However, at ground level values of close to 32C (90F) are currently projected. Although hot they  would not be exceptional.

GFS forecast 500hPa heights and pressure

GFS 500hPa heights and pressure, 16:00 BST Tue 25th June

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

A trend towards drier conditions is shown in the short term. Around the 20th June the risk of it turning wetter increases again. Temperatures fluctuate but in the south it could become warm or very warm for a time. View latest GEFS.


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