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Friday starts with outbreaks of rain in northern England and northern Wales. Elsewhere it is mostly dry but southern and central areas are misty. Through the day the band of rain becomes lighter and edges slightly further south. Areas to the north of it have sunny spells and scattered showers. To the south it stays dry and some spells of sunshine develop.  

The rain marks the boundary between air masses so there will be a steep temperature gradient. In the north 8C (46F) is about the best that can be expected but in southern counties a warm 21C (70F) is possible if the sun breaks through early enough. See the rain and lightning radar for the latest view.

Meteo France Arpege, forecast temperatures, 16:00 BST Fri 5th October

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Tonight the outbreaks of rain become heavier and more extensive. By the end of the night they extend over much of Wales, as well as south western and central England. Areas to the north have clear spells and patchy frost is likely. The south stays dry but the murk returns.

Tomorrow wet and windy weather pushes southeastwards across England and Wales. In the afternoon Wales and western England become drier and brighter but the rain lingers in the south east into the night. The north has a cold day with scattered showers and sunny spells.

Meteo France Arpege, forecast rain, 16:00 BST Sat 6th October

An area of high pressure building in from the west brings a dry and sunny Sunday to much of England and Wales. In Scotland and Northern Ireland the day starts bright and cold, but cloud and rain return from the west in the morning. Through the afternoon the rain may extend into parts of northern England. It will be quite cool.

Indian summer for some next week?

Early next week the high pressure cell transfers to the east of the UK. That allows disturbances from the Atlantic to feed rain into the north and west. The south and east should have a good deal of dry weather and temperatures are set to rise as warm air is pumped up from the southwest. Temperatures could climb above 21C (70F) to give Indian Summer like conditions.

By Thursday there is a chance of rain spreading southeastwards and somewhat cooler air following on behind it. However, once that clears away high pressure may rebuild and bring more fine and quite warm weather. There is uncertainty at this stage and some computer models show the border between low pressure systems in the Atlantic and high pressure over the continent moving slightly further eastwards. If that happens the chance of more unsettled weather affecting a larger part of the UK would be increased.

GFS, forecast pressure and 500hPa heights, 13:00 BST Fri 12th October

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Above average temperatures are shown for most of the period. A lot of dry weather is shown in the south but the north remains more unsettled.. View latest GEFS.