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Sunday starts murky in the south but northern and western areas are brighter. Through the day Northern Ireland, Scotland and western Wales have sunny spells but there will be showers too. Elsewhere it stays mostly overcast with spells of drizzle or light rain. Through the second half of the day winds strengthen in central and eastern England, and outbreaks of rain push into the south east.

Temperatures disappoint for the time of year with maximum values this afternoon close to 8C (46F) in overcast areas but possibly as high as 12C (54F) in the west. See the rain radar for the latest view.

KNMI HIRLAM 00z, forecast precipitation, 16:00 BST Sun 29th April

Tonight it turns very wet and windy in the south east. Elsewhere it should be dry and clear spells in the north will lead to the risk of frost.

Tomorrow heavy rain and strong winds are expected in East Anglia, the south east and perhaps central England. Computer models are showing wind gusts in excess of 50mph near to the east coast and localised flooding could lead to travel disruption. Over high ground wet snow is possible.

There is uncertainty about how far west the wet weather will spread. Most of this morning's computer model runs have its western extent stretching from Lincolnshire in the north to the Isle of Wight in the south, so that is the most likely scenario. However the HIRLAM model is still showing it pushing a lot further north and west and that outcome is not discounted.

It will be unusually cold for the time of year with temperatures in the wet areas struggling to rise much above 5C (41F).

GFS 00z, forecast pressure and precipitation, 13:00 BST Mon 30th April

By Tuesday the wet and windy weather should have pulled away northeastwards. Central and eastern areas have sunny spells and scattered showers. In the west cloud amounts increase and outbreaks of rain push in from the Atlantic. Temperatures remain disappointing for the time of year. 

Warm up on the way?

On Wednesday a band of rain moves southeastwards and showery conditions follow into the north and west. Temperatures remain below average for early May.

During the second half of the week high pressure is likely to build from the southwest and bring a change to more settled and warmer weather. Temperatures could rapidly climb and reach 21C (70F) in the south by the weekend. At this stage it looks like the warmth could last for the May Day bank holiday but it is too early to be certain.

GFS 00z, forecast temperatures, 16:00 BST Sat 5th May

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