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Thursday starts mostly dry but there is some light rain in East Anglia and counties to the south east of London. That clears away quite quickly to leave sunny spells but cloud will be building in the north and west. This afternoon wet weather spreads across Northern Ireland and into western Britain.

Arpege 00z, forecast precipitation, 15:00 GMT Thu 22nd March

Maximum temperatures will be close to 7C (45F) in the west and 13C (55F) in the east. See the newly upgraded rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

Tonight spells of rain push push eastwards but in southern counties they be patchy. Clearer skies return to Wales and western England later on.

Tomorrow morning it turns drier in the south east and the rain in the north becomes showery. In the afternoon Scotland has sunny interval. Elsewhere there will be a lot of cloud and outbreaks outbreaks of rain return to the south west. 

Mixed weekend weather

During Saturday showery rain pulls away eastwards but it remains mostly cloudy in the south eastern corner. Northern and western areas have a mix of sunny periods and scattered showers. Overnight clear spells lead to a frost in much of the country but cloudier conditions may keep temperatures above freezing point in the east.

Sunday brings a good deal of dry and bright weather. A few showers could break out but many places stay dry. In sunny spells it will feel quite pleasant.

Arpege 00z, forecast temperatures, 15:00 GMT Sun 25th March

The run up to Easter

Next week begins with changeable weather. Through Monday outbreaks of rain spread eastwards with colder and showery conditions following from the west. Tuesday and Wednesday look chilly and showers could be wintry in central and northern regions. 

During the second half of the week cold conditions are probable but the forecast details are uncertain. Areas of low pressure push southeastwards into continental Europe and cold air from the north and east is likely to be pulled down across the UK.

Some computer models show a pool of very cold upper level air pushing into the UK from the east or northeast. The chart below from today's ECM 00z run illustrates that but at this stage it is only one of a number of possible scenarios.

ECM 00z, surface pressure and 850hPa temperatures, 00:00 GMT Fri 30th March

Ensemble models which are used to identify the likelihood of different outcomes suggest less cold and drier conditions are  a possibility. Nonetheless a colder than average regime looks likely for much of the Easter period and snow can't be ruled out, especially in central and northern regions. 

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Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast charts

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

After a mildish start upper level air temperatures dip to just below the 30 year average for a few days. Next week a wide range of outcomes is shown but colder than average conditions are likely during Easter and the early part of April. View latest GEFS.