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Friday begins with a widespread and sharp frost. The rest of the brings a lot of dry and bright weather but in eastern counties there could be a few light wintry showers.

It will be cold with temperatures ranging from 3C (37F) to 5C (41F) this afternoon. See the rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

Tonight it stays dry and frost quickly returns. Through tomorrow and Sunday it remains dry and cold for most but near the east coast scattered snow showers are likely.

The Beast from the East

By Monday unusually cold air originating in Siberia will be pushing westwards across the UK as a "Beast from the East" weather pattern develops. That describes the set-up where the easterly flow on the southern flank of high pressure centred over Scandinavia pulls air from Siberia westwards across Europe. It typically is responsible for some of the UK's coldest spells.

Snow showers initially affect eastern and south eastern areas. Through Monday afternoon they probably become more frequent and accumulating snow is likely to start causing disruption. There is the possibility of a Thames Streamer bringing snow towards London.

During Tuesday and Wednesday the freeze intensifies. Snow showers are expected to be heavy and widespread with significant disruption to transport in parts of the UK. The showery nature of the snow means local conditions will vary significantly. Daytime temperatures are forecast to remain close to 0C (32F) in much of the country but the midday sun is strengthening rapidly at this time of the year so there will be some thaw when the clouds clear.

The chart below from this morning's GFS medium range computer model run is for Wednesday 28th February. It shows the UK and much of mainland Europe under a bitterly cold easterly air stream. Heavy snow showers are affecting much of the UK but local variations in conditions would be significant.

GFS 00z, surface pressure and precipitation, 12:00 GMT Wed 28th Feb

Blizzards pushing up from the south?

Through the second half of the week there is a lot of uncertainty. Some computer models show an area of low pressure with a lot of embedded moisture and milder air pushing up from the south. If that bumps into the bitterly cold air over the UK and becomes slow moving there is a risk of blizzard conditions and major disruption. It also brings a possibility of milder air returning to the south of the UK late in the week if it continues to push northwards.

Summary

1) Unusually and possibly record breaking cold is expected during the first half of next week.

2) Snow showers become increasingly widespread with disruptive accumulations in places.

3) During the second half of the week an area of low pressure may push up from the southwest. That would bring the risk of blizzards but if it pushed far enough north milder air would return to southern counties.

Impact of the SSW

The increasing influence of high pressure and the possibility of cold blocks of air pushing across Europe during the rest of February and the first half of March could be a result of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event that recently took place. That raises the risk of cold weather in the UK during the rest of February and the first half of March. However it is not assured because high pressure blocks could align in a way that leaves the UK under a mild south or southwesterly air mass.

Check the latest snow forecast charts:

Meteo France Arpege

DWD ICON

NCEP GFS

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Forecast tools

Check the latest satellite images, computer model charts and rain radar:

1981 - 2010 daily temperature charts [NEW]

Temperature anomalies [NEW]

DWD ICON forecast charts [NEW]

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Rain and precipitation type radar

Meteo France Arpege forecast charts

Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast charts

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

A good deal of dry weather is shown in the short term. By early next week it turns very cold and the risk of snow increases. Through the first week of March uncertainty grows with mild and cold outcomes both possible. View latest GEFS.