Frozen In Time

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Beast from the East on the way?

[Updated 07:45 13/02/2018]

Winter scene

Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow move eastwards today and tomorrow brings a repeat performance. By the weekend high pressure starts to build and there are signs of the Beast from the East putting in an appearance later next week. 

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Tuesday begins wet in central and western areas but eastern counties are dry. This morning the wet and windy weather pushes eastwards and in places it turns to snow. Most of the snow will be in the north where accumulations are likely but there could be a wintry mix in southern and central areas too. The wet weather slowly clears from the south east and East Anglia this afternoon with brighter conditions following from the west. In the north west there will be wintry showers.

Temperatures range from 3C (37F) in Scotland 7C (45F) in the south. See the rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

Tonight a widespread frost quickly develops. During the second half of the night wet and windy weather returns to Northern Ireland and western Britain.

Tomorrow the wet weather spreads eastwards and there is a risk of further snow, especially in the north. In the west it turns brighter during the second half of the day. It will be very windy and quite cold in most of the UK, although the south west is likely to be milder. The precipitation forecast chart is for 3pm tomorrow.

DWD ICON forecast chart

DWD ICON 00z, precipitation type 15:00 GMT Wed 14th Feb

Thursday brings a mix of sunshine and showers. In the north the showers turn wintry again.

Increasing chance of cold easterly?

By Friday pressure begins to rise from the south causing weather fronts to weaken as they push southeastwards. That means an increasing chance of drier conditions in southern and central areas but Scotland will still be under a changeable westerly flow this weekend. 

Early next week high pressure is expected to build northwards across the UK. That brings the likelihood of nighttime frosts and chilly days but the air source won't be cold. During the second half of the week things become more uncertain. There are increasing signs of a long fetch easterly flow pulling bitterly cold air across continental Europe and towards the UK. That weather pattern is often called the "Beast from the East". However some computer model runs push the coldest air to the southeast of the UK and others quickly bring back a much milder southwesterly flow.

The forecast chart below shows very cold air spreading westwards across continental Europe next Wednesday.

ECM 00z forecast chart

Impact of the SSW

The increasing influence of high pressure and the possibility of cold blocks of air pushing across Europe next week could be a result of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event that has taken place in recent days. That is likely to increase the risk of cold weather in the UK during the rest of February and the first half of March. However cold weather is not assured because high pressure blocks could align in a way that leaves the UK under a mild south or southwesterly air mass.

Check the latest snow forecast charts:

Meteo France Arpege

DWD ICON

NCEP GFS

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Forecast tools

Check the latest satellite images, computer model charts and rain radar:

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DWD ICON forecast charts [NEW]

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Rain and precipitation type radar

Meteo France Arpege forecast charts

Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast charts

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Unsettled weather and variable temperatures are favoured. Towards the end of the month the chance of drier but cold periods increases. View latest GEFS.



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