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Thursday is off to a very windy start in Scotland and there are frequent wintry showers. This morning Storm Caroline brings storm force gusts to northern Scotland but as it pulls away winds gradually ease. Heavy showers continue and increasingly they turn to snow bringing blizzard conditions at times.  

In England and Wales a band of rain pushes southeastwards but it may not clear fully from Kent and Essex until the late afternoon. Elsewhere it becomes brighter and colder but in the west wintry showers develop. It will be windy.

The Arpege chart shows windy conditions in all of the UK this morning but the worst conditions are in northern Scotland where gusts of over 80mph are forecast.

Arpege 00z, 7th Dec, wind gusts 10:00 GMT, Thu 7th Dec

Temperatures in the south reach a very mild 12C (54F) but 3C (37F) is about the best that can be expected in much of Scotland. See the rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

Tonight heavy sleet and snow showers in the north and west of the UK give significant accumulations in places. Scattered showers could also push inland to give a sprinkling of snow by the morning.

Friday and the weekend

Tomorrow will be very cold with snow showers in northern and coastal regions. The showers may push inland at times and accumulations of snow at low levels are possible. It's a similar picture on Saturday but it should become mostly dry and bright by the afternoon. 

During Sunday a small area of low pressure pushes southeastwards across the UK and brings a period of rain, sleet and snow. Forecast details are uncertain but most of the snow is likely to be north of the M4 corridor with much of the south having rain and sleet. There is the potential for the snow to cause travel disruption.

The Meteo France Arpege precipitation chart shows a mix of rain and snow at 10:00am on Sunday in southern and central areas. The area of snow could still adjust northwards or southwards but there is increasing confidence that it will be heavy and lead to disruptive accumulations.

Meteo France Arpege 00z, 7th Dec, precipitation type 10:00 GMT Sun 10th Dec

Cold and changeable

Next week it remain cold and disturbances moving in from the Atlantic bring a risk of rain, sleet and snow. Embedded milder air means their exact track will be crucial to determining the weather that different parts of the UK experiences. In general terms milder air is more likely to return to southern and central areas increasing the risk of precipitation falling as rain rather than snow.

As we approach Christmas period forecast confidence is low but medium range computer ensemble models are showing a wide range of possible outcomes. That means confidence in any given one is low but in turn it suggests the possibility of more frequent incursions of unsettled and milder weather.

A colder winter on the way?

The TWO winter forecast has been issued and suggests a colder and drier than average season. This year it has been particularly difficult to reach a conclusion. Buzz looks at the medium term. TWO's fourth winter discussion update has been issued. The winter forecast covering December, January and February will be issued this week.

Christmas countdown

TWO's annual Christmas Countdown continues.

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Cold conditions develop in the short term. Next week rather cold and changeable weather is favoured but by the second half of the month the number an increasing number of runs show it becoming milder. View latest GEFS.