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Thursday begins dry and frosty in much of the UK. There are some wintry showers around and through the day they continue to affect the far north, Pembrokeshire, the south west of England and eastern coastal counties. In parts of the east a covering of snow is possible and some showers push inland into central and south eastern England during the second half of the day.

The Meteo France Arpege precipitation forecast chart shows heavy showers near the east coast this afternoon and one or two moving inland. 

Meteo France Arpege 00z, 30th Nov, Precipitation, 15:00GMT, Thur 30th November

It will be very cold with maximum temperatures ranging from 2C (36F) in Scotland to a 4C (39F) in the south. See the rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

Tonight clear periods lead to a widespread and sharp frost. In eastern coastal counties wintry showers continue and in places additional accumulations are probable.

Tomorrow eastern England has scattered showers but it should be mostly dry. In the far north cloud builds and patchy outbreaks of rain develop as milder air starts to return. By the evening the damp conditions push southwards into northern England and there could be a few flakes of snow at first.

Weekend warm up

Saturday will feel raw in the south with quite a lot of cloud cover and a few spots of rain. The north will be milder and more persistent outbreaks of rain are expected in northern Scotland.

The yellow and orange shading across the north indicates milder air with temperatures higher than 0C at the 850hPa level which is about 1500m above sea level.

GFS 00z, 30th November, 850hPa temperatures, 15:00 GMT, Sat 2nd December

Overnight and into Sunday the area of rain pushes southwards but it becomes increasingly light and fragmented to leave a mainly dry afternoon.

Mild air to win next week's battle?

Monday and Tuesday are set to be rather mild with cloud and patchy rain. During the middle of the week colder air will be trying to return from the north but the latest computer model runs favour a milder outcome as pressure builds to the south of the UK. However there is still a chance of a transient colder snap developing during the second half of the week as low pressure pulls away eastwards and a northwesterly air stream returns.

ECM 00z , 30th November, MSLP and 500hPa forecast, Thu 7th December

TWO news and winter forecast

The TWO winter forecast covering December, January and February will be issued this week. Buzz looks at the medium term. TWO's fourth winter discussion update has been issued. The winter forecast covering December, January and February will be issued this week.

Christmas countdown

TWO's annual Christmas Countdown continues.

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Colder conditions are shown returning this week. By the weekend it turns less cold and in the longer term there are signs of more changeable conditions. View latest GEFS.