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Thursday begins wet in Wales and much of the north of the UK. Through the day outbreaks of rain push southeastwards but they become increasingly light and fragmented. Colder and brighter conditions follow into northern and central and regions.

Temperatures range from 5C (41F) in Scotland to 12C (54F) in the south. See the rainfall radar for the latest view.

Tonight it will be very windy in the far north with heavy wintry showers. Elsewhere it becomes dry and clear spells lead to a cold night with frost in southern and central areas.

Tomorrow heavy and blustery wintry showers affect Scotland. Southern and central areas have a dry but rather cold day.

Weekend

A mixed weekend is in prospect. Wintry showers are expected in the north on Saturday and during the second half of the day outbreaks of rain could southeastwards across central and southern areas. The Meteo France Arpge 00z precipitation  forecast for 11:00GMT on Saturday shows patchy rain in the south.

Sunday should be dry and cold in central and eastern areas. In the west and across Northern Ireland thicker cloud could bring some patchy rain and milder air will be returning.

The longer term

Next week the most likely outcome is for mild conditions to return, at least to southern and central regions. However is still some uncertainty and a few computer model runs continue to show a cold scenario. For example today's GFS 00z run brings in cold air from the northeast by the middle of next week. The chart below shows all of the UK under air cold enough to bring sleet or snow, 

GFS 00z, 16th November, 850hPa temperature forecast for Thursday 23rd November 

Buzz looks at the uncertain mid term weather prospects. TWO's third winter discussion update, "Winter is coming" has been issued.

Finally if you've made it here you will know our site homepage has changed. The new version displays better and faster on all screen sizes and offline access is built-in for those devices that support it. It also allows gives us much more flexibility with the daily update. Further refinements will be made in the next few days but let us know if you spot any bugs.

Christmas countdown

TWO's annual Christmas Countdown continues.

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Changeable weather is shown. Mild and cold scenarios are both shown as possible. View latest GEFS.