The Weather Outlook

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scillydave
26 November 2023 16:00:58

I wonder what prompted the change from only a few hours earlier. The models don’t look as if they changed significantly.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



I think the Icon might have something to say about that!
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
scillydave
26 November 2023 16:03:25
Oh and the Met Office...
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/cold-spells-to-come 
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
AlvinMeister
26 November 2023 18:00:25
Just a note that "The Year the Thames Flooded" on Channel 5 tonight is likely to be pulled as it's emerged a contributing historian is allegedly a Neo Nazi.

Fantastic vetting by ITN!
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 November 2023 19:56:32

Just a note that "The Year the Thames Flooded" on Channel 5 tonight is likely to be pulled as it's emerged a contributing historian is allegedly a Neo Nazi.

Fantastic vetting by ITN!

Originally Posted by: AlvinMeister 



Online guide showing 'Beast from the East', the freeze of 2018 now scheduled.

(Could this be a repeat? It rings a bell)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
26 November 2023 21:12:26

Online guide showing 'Beast from the East', the freeze of 2018 now scheduled.

(Could this be a repeat? It rings a bell)

Originally Posted by: DEW 



I can’t watch a program about the Best from the East without feeling totally underwhelmed. The cold spells last winter here had more snow and lower maxima and minima than anything seen in the “Beast”.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
idj20
27 November 2023 21:12:01

I can’t watch a program about the Best from the East without feeling totally underwhelmed. The cold spells last winter here had more snow and lower maxima and minima than anything seen in the “Beast”.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Even that totally bypassed here at Folkestone with a spell of freezing drizzle in the morning that ended with a near spring-like afternoon while North and West Kent had up to a foot of snow. That was probably the most frustrating weather event I've ever experienced and I'm sure Gusty would agree with me. 
Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
Martybhoy
28 November 2023 16:36:10
Wee Sean reckons we are due some proper cold 🥶 

https://news.stv.tv/scotland/sean-batty-could-snow-and-ice-in-scotland-see-a-repeat-of-2010s-big-freeze 
200m above sea level
Rural East Ayrshire
Near to the village of Sorn
dagspot
28 November 2023 19:20:47
and tattoo hair Beresford on ITV going for ‘turning milder again next week’
Neilston 600ft ASL
Gavin D
29 November 2023 12:48:18
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Cold for a while then milder by mid-December

Wednesday 29 November to – Sunday 3 December
Cold and occasionally wintry

Monday 4 December to – Sunday 10 December
Cold and unsettled then potentially milder later

Monday 11 December to – Sunday 24 December
Becoming mild, wet and windy

Further ahead

Although the cold weather looks sure to hang on for at least a week, there is a lot less certainty in an anticipated change to milder weather. The next update might shed more light on when this could happen. We will also peek towards the end of 2023.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Whiteout
29 November 2023 13:22:20
Warning out for the SW 😍 Hoping to see at least a covering by this time tomorrow 🤞

Spells of snow may develop over hills, especially parts of Bodmin Moor, Dartmoor, Blackdown Hills and Exmoor during the early hours of Thursday before petering out later in the day. The highest parts of Dartmoor and perhaps Bodmin Moor may see 5-10cm of snow with some drifting in strong easterly winds. 
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Gavin D
29 November 2023 19:47:39
BBC weather for the week ahead

Rest of the week
  • Staying cold
  • Sharp night frosts


Next week
  • Milder and wetter


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67566744 
doctormog
29 November 2023 20:55:48

BBC weather for the week ahead

Rest of the week

  • Staying cold
  • Sharp night frosts


Next week
  • Milder and wetter


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67566744 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



Given the fact they said that snow would be restricted to the highest ground largely in the north a few days ago for this current week I would be wary about any forecast for a week ahead. When “highest ground” transpires to mean “almost sea level” it detracts from the credibility somewhat. Largely in the north may or may not be correct and time will tell. The sleet or snow for highest ground was evidently going to be wrong from the moment the statement was made. Disappointing and unnecessary.

The graphics and forecast were also based on the ECM 00z op run which has been superseded by a slightly cooler 12z op run and ensembles so even more caution is needed. The max of 0°C forecast here on Sunday will certainly feel seasonal if it comes off, but that is some way off.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
tallyho_83
30 November 2023 02:53:30
An Interesting Watch:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/63346531 [img]https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/63346531[/img] 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


dagspot
01 December 2023 18:31:29
Darren ‘mild ramper’ Bettsy   ‘Much milder next week’  (changing tune from ‘less cold’)
Neilston 600ft ASL
Gavin D
01 December 2023 18:34:27
Met office seeing the potential for something at the end of the month judging by the LFR today

"Perhaps a greater chance of a longer cold spell late in the period."

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk 
Gavin D
02 December 2023 11:27:17
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Cold early December, then milder and wetter

Saturday 2 December to – Sunday 10 December
Becoming wet, windy and milder later in the week

Monday 11 December to – Sunday 17 December
Wet and windy at times. Chillier in the north

Monday 18 December to – Sunday 31 December
Periodically wet and windy

Further ahead

When we re-visit the forecast, we will see if the milder and unsettled outlook from the second half of next week onwards still looks likely.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Gavin D
03 December 2023 14:04:01
BBC weather for the week ahead
  • Cold to start
  • Becoming wetter and windier
  • Turning milder for all

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001t47c/weather-for-the-week-ahead-03122023 
Saint Snow
04 December 2023 15:17:23
From the BBC News Website:

A yellow rain warning has been issued for north-east England until 09:00 GMT on Tuesday.



Not quite as good as a 'yellow snow warning', but these still make me chuckle.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-67611117 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gavin D
06 December 2023 11:17:07
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Often wet and mild throughout December

Wednesday 6 December to – Sunday 10 December
Milder, and occasionally wet and windy

Monday 11 December to – Sunday 17 December
Changeable and turning a bit chillier

Monday 18 December to – Sunday 31 December
Periodically wet and windy

Further ahead

In the next forecast, we will be able to look at what the long range models are saying for early January. We will also see if they stick with the expected milder pattern through the rest of December, and if they hint at anything colder around the New Year.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
06 December 2023 16:47:45
Not much sign of a white Christmas from the BBC outlook. Perhaps favoured hilly northern areas? 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
ozone_aurora
06 December 2023 18:50:07
Have the Met Office historic station data gone or is it just a temporary problem? 😟

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/historic-station-data .

Can't access the stations. 😧
Retron
07 December 2023 04:33:51

Have the Met Office historic station data gone or is it just a temporary problem? 😟

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/historic-station-data .

Can't access the stations. 😧

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


Looks like they've cocked-up the links.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/manstondata.txt 
The data is still there, so just modify the link above with the station's text file and you'll get your data.
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
The Dub Version
07 December 2023 16:44:15
Friday 22 Dec - Friday 5 Jan
Most likely to be unsettled with further bands of rain crossing the UK with brighter conditions and showers in between. The wettest and windiest conditions are most likely in the west and northwest. The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazards such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period. However, conditions are more likely to remain generally mild and wet.
Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Thu 7 Dec 2023

You do have to laugh at the logic

 
Berkshire
Gavin D
09 December 2023 10:34:25
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Mild and rainy, then more seasonal and changeable

Saturday 9 December to – Sunday 17 December
Mild and wet, then colder and drier from midweek

Monday 18 December to – Sunday 24 December
Very uncertain but probably drier

Monday 1 January to – Sunday 14 January
Most probably becoming mild and wet

Further ahead

The pressing concern in the next update will be to see whether models have better agreement regarding developments during the week before Christmas.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

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