GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
12 January 2024 16:49:09
BBC latest forecast for the UK is worth watching for snow probability graphics. I've never been able to suss out posting images on this forum but essentially it shows anywhere north of Bridlington and Blackpool susceptible to snow up to Tuesday.  They are expecting a feature to slide across southern Scotland and northern England on Tuesday. Then the channel low affecting southern parts south east of a line from Padstow up to Ipswich on Wednesday. 

Not exclusively as our lovely Helen emphasises!
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
doctormog
12 January 2024 16:57:44
That forecast has a max of 7°C here tomorrow. This morning the forecast max for this afternoon here was 3°C and hasn’t got above 0°C so we will see.
jhall
12 January 2024 17:03:03
Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

Staying very cold through next week. Northerly winds will bring snow showers inland at times, these most frequent across northern Scotland. Many inland areas will be mainly dry with a good deal of clear/bright weather. During Wednesday there is a chance of an area of snow moving across parts of southern England and Wales for a time though confidence is currently low in the behaviour of this system. Towards the end of the week or more likely over next weekend, the start of a transition back to less cold conditions is likely as Atlantic systems start to arrive from the west brining spells of rain and strong winds. Whilst conditions should gradually turn milder, this transition brings the chance of spells of snow.

Still uncertain for the South at least....



The MO forecast for the two weeks following on from that is interesting too:

"After a likely milder, more unsettled spell during the preceding week, towards the end of January and into early February there is again an increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but this increases the likelihood of drier conditions becoming established. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance compared to normal of cold spells. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely during early February, there remains a lower chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds."
Cranleigh, Surrey
Downpour
12 January 2024 17:03:57
Originally Posted by: GezM 

BBC latest forecast for the UK is worth watching for snow probability graphics. I've never been able to suss out posting images on this forum but essentially it shows anywhere north of Bridlington and Blackpool susceptible to snow up to Tuesday.  They are expecting a feature to slide across southern Scotland and northern England on Tuesday. Then the channel low affecting southern parts south east of a line from Padstow up to Ipswich on Wednesday. 

Not exclusively as our lovely Helen emphasises!



Yes the latest Beeb video forecast is somewhat more encouraging than the Weather for the Week Ahead, which was deeply underwhelming unless you were one of 0.5% of the UK population that lives in NE Scotland. 

Helen didn't seem very confident on the track of the low however. I still think France is the form horse, but all to play for. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Whiteout
12 January 2024 17:08:06
Latest Met tweet showing a possible covering here and for all points West Sunday/Monday, would be nice to see 😀
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
southcoastmatt
12 January 2024 17:25:05
A "return to Northerly winds" at the end of the week.

  https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1745858621710152038?s=19 
Matt in Poole, Dorset
65Masl
Retron
12 January 2024 17:41:08
Originally Posted by: southcoastmatt 

A "return to Northerly winds" at the end of the week.

  https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1745858621710152038?s=19 


Up until Friday, they say - which is pretty much what you'd expect from the models earlier today... of course the 12z ops so far have something different.

The other thing that made me grin were the snow risk graphics (they emphasised that the most likely track now is clipping the far south). The reason it made me grin is they mentioned for alternate scenario 2, i.e. a northward variant, the boundary for snow/rain would be "along the M4 corridor". It's not just us who've noticed the correlation it seems!
Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
12 January 2024 17:44:19
Originally Posted by: southcoastmatt 

A "return to Northerly winds" at the end of the week.

  https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1745858621710152038?s=19 



I think it is referring to after the Low has cleared away from the south on Wednesday/Thursday. One thing really got my attention in that forecast and it was the snow accumulation map . Somewhere could get a lot of snow.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

southcoastmatt
12 January 2024 18:09:10
Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I think it is referring to after the Low has cleared away from the south on Wednesday/Thursday. One thing really got my attention in that forecast and it was the snow accumulation map . Somewhere could get a lot of snow.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page



Braemar/Crathie area and some of those areas along the A93 look like they're in for an interesting week! 
Matt in Poole, Dorset
65Masl
Gavin D
12 January 2024 18:40:23
BBC weather for the week ahead

Next week
  • Colder
  • Greater snow risk
  • Severe night frosts


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67964527 
Gavin D
13 January 2024 10:30:16
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Colder than average for a week, then milder

Saturday 13 January to – Sunday 21 January
Colder than normal. Snow in places. Milder later

Monday 22 January to – Sunday 28 January
Milder and unsettled. More rain than snow

Monday 29 January to – Sunday 11 February
Possibly turning colder again in February

Further ahead

Models and atmospheric forcings give us some confidence on the upcoming pattern of cold then milder weather through the rest of January. When the next update rolls around, we will see if that remains the case, and whether there will be any more evidence of February becoming colder again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
dagspot
13 January 2024 16:32:44
Stav, cold with snow in north, cold in South but snow missing south coast tue/wed and turning milder for all by weekend  #DampSquib #WintersPushedOutForAnotherMonth
Neilston 600ft ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
14 January 2024 07:22:10
Louise Lear on BBC this morning introducing a disturbance in the Arctic flow on Tuesday giving snow for N England, but the south remains starved of snow though the Channel islands may get plastered from the SW on Wednesday
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
14 January 2024 10:09:05
The Met Office now have snow warnings out for many parts of the N and NW for snow each day until Thursday. Some of the totals for each period in the texts are impressive, but as it states it will vary.
doctormog
14 January 2024 18:30:28
It may feel a bit chilly tomorrow (from the Met Office Twitter/X feed):

https://i.ibb.co/gr0Bkm0/IMG-3171.jpg 
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dagspot
14 January 2024 18:51:48
where on earth does BBC get Scotland central belt heavy disruptive snow 5-10cm but 5dc… 🙄
Neilston 600ft ASL
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