BBC monthly outlook
Unsettled at times with some warm, dry spells.
Friday 28 May to – Sunday 6 June
A warm, sunny weekend with showers next week.
A warm and largely sunny bank holiday weekend is in store to close out the final few days of what has been a very cold meteorological spring. The warmth looks set to continue into next week for a while as high pressure lingers nearby to our east. However, low pressure developing south of us will bring some increased chances of heavy showers or thunderstorms through the middle of next week. Towards the end of the week and into the following weekend, some fresher Atlantic air and unsettled weather is set to return if high pressure to our east clears away.
Monday 7 June to – Sunday 13 June
Changeable weather, turning cooler and wetter.
Early June is likely to be marked by some changeable weather patterns for the UK as high pressure to the southwest battles with low pressure to the north or northeast. The best signals for cool, wet weather are east of us in Germany and Poland, but the best signals for warmer, drier weather are south of us in Spain and France.
The UK is caught up between the two weather systems and will likely see a mix of the two. Low pressure should be nearby to start the week off, leftover from the cooler trends towards the end of next week. But high pressure from the southwest will begin to build back towards the UK and push lows away to the east.
The biggest uncertainty in the forecast for early June is over just how strong this high pressure system will be. If it is stronger and pushes further north and east, the UK will see very dry and even warm weather.
If it is a little weaker, low pressure will remain near enough to give some wetter weather to eastern areas and keep the temperatures a little below average. At the moment, we are slightly favouring the latter, with low pressure close enough to keep the winds more northerly or north-westerly and maintain the fresher-feeling Atlantic air. Western and southern areas will tend to be the driest, while northern and eastern areas will have the best chances for rain. We have medium confidence on the forecast, but low confidence on the temperatures due to the extra sensitivity to the exact location of the high. Warmer weather is possible if the high shifts too far east. We have high confidence that it will not be nearly as cool as the second half of May was.
Monday 14 June to – Sunday 27 June
Drier in mid-June but more unsettled later.
The second half of June is expected to keep the changeable large-scale weather pattern in place with more influential high pressure in the middle of the month gradually giving way to lower pressure later. The best chances for some summer-like dry, sunny, and warm weather will be around mid-June when high pressure extends into the British Isles from the southwest.
This would drag warmer air from the sub-tropical Atlantic into Northwest Europe along a gentle southwest wind, displacing the cooler North Atlantic air towards Iceland and East Europe. Later in June there are still some compelling signals for high pressure to decline and shift away to the east, allowing the storm track to return from Iceland into the UK. This is a wetter and colder pattern with lows bringing in the North Atlantic air along with some occasional weather fronts. High pressure nearby to the southwest will likely occasionally reach in and give us some drier and more settled days.
The much cooler Arctic air is not except to reach this far south, so even though it will be cooler than normal it won't be nearly as cool as May turned out to be and likely still feel like summer. Confidence is medium on the forecast of a changeable weather pattern and alternating warm, dry and cool, wet periods. However, we have low confidence on the specifics for each week as timing out the pressure systems can be notoriously difficult in these patterns. For the whole month of June, we anticipate a slightly cooler and wetter than normal month broken up by occasional settled, warm spells.
We will use the latest data to re-examine our chances for any prolonged summer warmth as we kick off meteorological summer.